Cranwell: Democrats Could Take Both House and Senate in November
By: Lowell
Published On: 8/20/2007 7:10:22 AM
Yeah, I realize that Dickie Cranwell is the chairman of the Democratic Party of Virginia, so he's SUPPOSED to be optimistic about Democrats' electoral prospects. Still, I think this prediction is encouraging:
I believe that the likely scenario is that we'll take control of the Senate. I think the House is a more difficult task, but based on the numbers I've seen, I don't think it is completely out of the realm of possibility that we could get to 50-50 in the House. All the stars and all the planets are going to have to line up. You have so many local factors that influence the outcome; it's hard to take a big, broad-brush look at it.
I agree that we're going to take back the State Senate this November. The way I count it, we've got 5 great chances for pickups: Chap Petersen vs. Jeannemarie "Was for the Abuser Fees Before She Was Against Them" Devolites Davis, Ralph Northam vs. Nick "Feminazi" Rerras, John Miller vs. Trish "Separation of School and State" Stall, George Barker vs. Jay O'Brien, Janet Oleszek vs. Ken "Right Ron?" Cuccinelli. We've also got at least 3 other pretty good possibilities: Karen Schultz (D) vs. Jill Holtzman-Vogel (R), Albert Pollard (D) vs. Richard Stuart (R), and Michael Briener (D) vs. Ralph Smith.
What makes me optimistic is that Democrats only need to pick up 4 out of these 8 possibilities to take back the State Senate, while NO incumbent Democrats are seriously threatened (as far as I can tell).
In the House of Delegates, I'd stick with Brian Moran's prediction of a 3-6 seat pickup for Democrats, but leave open the possibility of an abuser-fee-induced "wave." If that happens, I believe we could see upset possibilities - aside from almost sure wins like Paul Nichols, Margi Vanderhye, Joe Bouchard, and Eric Ferguson - such as Chris Brown over Jeff Frederick, Marty Martinez over Joe May, Troy Farlow over Brenda Pogge, Robert Mathieson over John Welch, and possibly even Jay Donahue over Tom Rust. Wouldn't it be particularly sweet to see the last one come true, given that Rust was one of the prime "abuser fee" architects in the Republican-controlled House of Delegates?
Comments
Joe Bouchard (elevandoski - 8/20/2007 7:27:43 AM)
in Virginia Beach (83rd) should be on this list!
I had just listed "upset" possibilites (Lowell - 8/20/2007 8:21:17 AM)
in the HoD. It was confusing, so I added four Democrats - Vanderhye, Nichols, Bouchard, Ferguson - who I think are highly likely to win.
You left off Vanderhye and Nicholls (Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr. - 8/20/2007 8:08:04 AM)
Those are the two most winnable HOD races in the Commonwealth.
See above comment. (Lowell - 8/20/2007 8:21:37 AM)
n/t
I'd add Bill Day in the 31st to your HOD list (Shawn - 8/20/2007 8:46:13 AM)
Breiner Campaign Picking Up Steam (Elaine in Roanoke - 8/20/2007 9:04:02 AM)
I was pretty worried about the campaign of Dr. Mike Breiner until recently. Now, things are picking up and looking much better.
Wednesday, there will be a fundraiser in Roanoke at the Shenandoah Club for Breiner - featuring Mark Warner!
Plus, other candidates for office are benefitting from the fantastic campaign that Steve McGraw is running for clerk of the court in Roanoke County. Steve's campaign is going to draw out a big Democratic vote and help many others.
The big issue for Mike Breiner's campaign will be to get his name known around the valley. The fact that Ralph Smith was mayor in Roanoke City and is better known will help Smith with some voters - but it will hurt him just as much. As mayor, he was divisive and came across as a bitter, mean guy - plus he moved out to my county, Botetourt, in a blatant attempt to pressure Lacey Putney to retire so Ralph could run for that seat. Didn't work, but some of Putney's people still remember.
I also think that a takeover of the state senate is quite likely and that a house takeover is pretty iffy.
Three solid Senate pick-ups (DanG - 8/20/2007 10:09:48 AM)
If the election were today, I'd count on three pick-ups in the Senate:
Peterson, Miller, and Northam. That means we need either Barker, Schultz, or Pollard to pull off an upset. Taking back the Senate will be tough, but with the right funds and support it is certainly possible.
What about Briener and Oleszek? (Lowell - 8/20/2007 10:24:15 AM)
You don't include them on your list....just curious why not.
Couple of things (DanG - 8/20/2007 11:04:33 AM)
Some of the things the Oleszek campaign has done just seem childish to me. Then there's Cooch, a very charismatic and friendly candidate. Though I think it'll be a close race, I don't think Janet has run the best campaign here and will lose in a close one.
As for Briener, I really have to admit I haven't seen much of anything one way or the other on him. Maybe I'll reconsider him if I get some evidence that the race is competetive. Thus far, I haven't seen anything to suggest that. But I could be wrong.
One last thing (DanG - 8/20/2007 11:06:45 AM)
If anybody pulls off the upset to bring us to four seats, I hope that it is Pollard. I'd really like to see that guy in the State Senate.
Ummm.... (Doug in Mount Vernon - 8/21/2007 7:17:25 PM)
The district is indisputably blue now...you should NOT be writing this race off in an area of the state that has time and time again, lately, completely rejected the politics of the extreme right, while solidly endorsing progressive candidates including Leslie Byrne and Jim Webb.
It's the turnout, stupid....(not that you're stupid!). ;-)
We'll (leftofcenter - 8/20/2007 10:15:33 AM)
have the problem in Richmond that we have in DC. if we take the senate-great-but if we don't take the house also it won't matter. the senate can write and pass all kinds of good legislation, Kaine will support it but then it will get shot down and shelved in the house and nothing will get done except what the rethugs want. But on the other side of the coin, the house can write and pass their legislation but the senate can stop it.
Big gridlock. But it sure is better to have one or the other than neither.And Connie Brennan is running a supreme campaign here against Abbitt for delegate.
House of Delegates (S. Becker - 8/20/2007 4:08:12 PM)
I know most folks in the northern part of the state dont see this as something that will happen, but mark my word, Susie Garner WILL defeat Bill Carrico in the 5th District House of Delegates.
That would be awesome (Lowell - 8/20/2007 4:15:45 PM)
I hope you're right!
Donahue a stronger possibility than others mentioned... (Doug in Mount Vernon - 8/21/2007 7:19:39 PM)
The 86th is the MOST Democratic leaning district held by an incumbent Republican for re-election in the entire state.
That alone, makes this a close one. Herndon is approaching 65% Democratic voting performance, for crying out loud.
With the abuser fee fiasco, Jay is more likely to win than several the candidates you listed (as much as I love them--especially Marty!).