This is great news, from the Joe Bouchard for Delegate campaign in Virginia Beach. This is a district that went barely for Tim Kaine with 52% of the vote and also barely for George Allen with 51% of the vote. In other words, it's a highly competitive district for Democrats with the right candidate. And this year, we've got that candidate in Joe Bouchard, former commander of the Norfolk Naval Station. In contrast, Stolle emerged from a rough Republican primary over Carolyn Weems, who had been supported by incumbent Del. Leo Wardrup.
Democrats have a real opportunity to pick up a seat in Virginia's 83rd House of Delegates district where Republican incumbent Leo Wardrup is retiring. Buoyed by a favorable national political environment, Democrat Joe Bouchard begins this contest with a slight edge over Republican Chris Stolle, 41 - 35 percent, with both candidates well below the critical majority point at this stage. Further, in a simulated model in which undecided voters are allocated according to their partisan self-identification, Bouchard maintains his edge and inches closer to majority status leading Stolle, 47 - 42 percent.
Bouchard's edge here is built, in part, from the fact that he is better received among the voters who are familiar with him than Stolle is among those who recognize him. Although Stolle expectedly has a slight name identification advantage - 57 percent of voters are familiar with Stolle while 45 percent of voters recognize Bouchard - his hard-fought primary contest has left him with rather tepid personal ratings. Among those who know him, Stolle earns just mixed reviews, receiving a 52-degree mean personal feeling thermometer as measured on a 0 to 100 scale based on a favorable-to-unfavorable ratio of 1-to-1 (23 percent favorable - 22 percent unfavorable)2. In comparison, those who know Bouchard give him a nearly 3-to-1 favorable-to-unfavorable ratio. He earns a 60-degree mean personal feeling thermometer, with 27 percent of voters giving him favorable ratings and 10 percent rating him unfavorably.All in all, Bouchard has a narrow edge over Stolle here, fueled by the favorable national political
environment and Stolle's mixed reviews among this electorate. For Democrats to move this Republican-held seat into their column, it will be absolutely essential for Bouchard to have the resources he needs to undertake an effective and aggressive campaign.