Is Obama sitting pretty?

By: Rob
Published On: 8/7/2007 10:59:50 PM

Just a counterpoint to Lowell's post:

An ABC News/Washington Post poll last week showed Clinton, Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in a virtual tie in Iowa.

A recent poll by the American Research Group in New Hampshire put Clinton and Obama at 31 percent apiece, and a poll by the same group in South Carolina gave Obama a 4 percent lead over Clinton in that state.

"Remember, each contest affects the next," said Plouffe. "Our strategy has always been to focus like a laser on the early states to create the momentum crucial to later contests."

Plouffe also pointed to Obama's prowess at raising money from 258,000 individual donors as a sign of his strength. Obama raised about $5 million more than Clinton during the second quarter.

Obama calls the national polls "irrelevant and wildly inconsistent," but that's untrue -- they have relevance and have been pretty consistent for Clinton.  But, his other point -- that he's looking good in the early primary states that traditionally catapult the winners to the nomination -- is a strong counterpoint to any "Hillary is winning big" observations.

Comments



repeating what I said at Big Orange: (teacherken - 8/7/2007 11:06:49 PM)
much of Hillary's lead right now is due to name recognition.  But she has money problems.  Her burn rate is about 74% to Obama's 53-54%.  And far more of her contributions came from people now maxed out for the primary.  If she were to lose IA, NV and NH, she might not have enough money to recover, even if she wins Florida.  The press story would be all over it.  Hder campaign has Florida as her fire wall to get her to Feb 5.  She is paying a huge amount in salaries, and that is a tough nut to carry.

That is why she is still raising big bucks contributions like crazy -  she left Chicago to do multiple events in the Hamptons.



Maybe also why she can't say no to lobbyist donations (Rob - 8/7/2007 11:21:54 PM)


Interesting Point on the Financing (FMArouet - 8/8/2007 12:05:11 AM)
Thanks, teacherken, for the financing data.

So far Hillary's campaign has impressed me with its relative agility, despite its size. She has done the best she can with what she has in terms of organization, persona, and policy. Maybe she has built up enough of a lead to win it all.

Obama, though, seems to be looking at the race more strategically. He has avoided a money disadvantage, and he is devoting relatively more resources to the key early efforts in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. Given the past volatility of these races and the spike that tends to go to the early caucus and primary winners, Obama is giving himself the best chance for an upset. He will likely have enough money to follow up any initial success.

Who will do the best at GOTV and grassroots organizing? Hillary has much of the party machine, but Obama seems to have more enthusiasm behind him at the base.

And I suppose we should not count Edwards out yet, though he does seem to be fading. If he can remain competitive in the early primaries, we may yet have a brokered convention.



The two polls of which you speak... (SaveElmer - 8/7/2007 11:58:42 PM)
Are ARG polls and are the only ones that show such results for Obama...ARG polls have come into question as to their methodology and the sample they use...

The same polls showed Hillary with a 9 point lead in Iowa...

The immedietely two preceding polls in SC by other firms had Hillary up by 16 and 15 points consecutively...

A rather thin reed to to hang hopes on, and hardly the cumulative evidence that polls showing Hillary in the lead nationally have shown...



All depends... (Rob - 8/8/2007 8:39:22 AM)
Are those latest pro-Obama polls outliers (as you contend) or the cusp of a trend?  We'll see.  Hence the question mark in my title.


ARG wildly oversamples conservative independents (WillieStark - 8/8/2007 10:33:52 AM)
That is one reason HRC is doing so well in the ARG polls. Also  , and this is a pretty strong piece of secondhand info, They identify her as being the wife of former president Bill Clinton. He is still pretty popular and may be inoculating HRC against her steep negatives.

ARG polls have limited viability because of the way they sample. It is those polls that contribute to the higher than is valid numbers for HRC in the nationwide averages.

Also, teacherken has hit on a very important point in the burn rate of HRC's campaign. Whoever wins IA and NH will go on to win NV and SC and then roll the Feb. 5 states. There has been a lot of talk about the accelerated primaries and it does have an impact. But in the end, I still believe that IA and NH will tell the tale on election day.