2008 Presidential Race Outcome Could be Turned Upside Down by California!!!

By: Dianne
Published On: 8/1/2007 8:05:33 AM

There is something very interesting (but disturbing) happening in California that potentially could have an impact on the 2008 President race outcome.  A prominent Republican lawyer wants to put a proposal on the California ballot next year that could shake up the 2008 presidential contest, a change Democrats say would rig the election, so says the Associated Press  in a recent article.

California awards its cache of 55 electoral votes to the statewide winner in presidential elections - the largest single prize in the nation. But under the proposal, the statewide winner would get only two electoral votes.

The rest would be distributed to the winning candidate in each of the state's congressional districts. In effect, that would create 53 races, each with one electoral vote up for grabs.

The left-leaning state has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections. But the change - if it qualifies for one of two primary ballots next year and is approved by voters - would mean that a Republican would be positioned the following November to snatch 20 or more electoral votes in Republican-leaning districts.

That is a number equal to winning Ohio - the pivotal state in the 2004 presidential election.

Maine and Nebraska currently elect two electors by a statewide ballot and choose their remaining Electors by congressional district (which the Republicans would like to do in California), although neither Maine nor Nebraska has split its electoral votes.

According to the AP article Chris Lehane, a Democratic consultant called the plan "an effort to rig the system in order to fix the election.  If this change is made, it will virtually guarantee that a Republican wins the White House in 2008."  (19 of California's 53 congressional districts are represented by Republicans and Bush carried 22 districts in 2004).

If this proposal qualifies as a ballot measure, it would be bad new for Democrats.  And unfortunately abortion and other social issues are expected to be additional ballot proposals and that could drive up Republican turnout.

However, the legislature in California is also currently considering signing on to the National Popular Vote compact.  The compact, is an agreement between states to allocate all its electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote (regardless of who won the popular vote in their own state).  Will Arnold veto it (he vetoed a similar bill last year)?

Comments



OK if all states did it (relawson - 8/1/2007 10:30:00 AM)
What happens, mathematically, if all states do that?  To me it makes sense because campaigns will need to really fight for every vote.  I think it would help shift politics back towards the center.

If just California does it, yeah it harms Democrats no doubt.  If it were done nationwide, I think it would balance out.



i'll find the correct URL for the info (Dianne - 8/1/2007 11:59:19 AM)
I apologize for not including that all you need are the number of states to adopt this measure until you gather 270 electoral yeses.  I'll find the reference. 


Just need enough states to pass bill whose electors = 270 (Dianne - 8/1/2007 12:05:58 PM)
Explanation
Under the U.S. Constitution, the states have exclusive and plenary (complete) power to allocate their electoral votes, and may change their state laws concerning the awarding of their electoral votes at any time. Under the National Popular Vote bill, all of the state's electoral votes would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes-that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538).

....
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee that the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in all 50 states will win the Presidency.

In April 2007, Maryland became the first state to enact the bill. So far, the bill has passed 11 legislative chambers. In 2007, the bill passed the Arkansas House, California Senate, Colorado Senate, and North Carolina Senate as well as both houses in Hawaii, Illinois, and Maryland. In 2006, the bill passed the Colorado Senate and both houses in California.

The bill is currently endorsed by 769 state legislators-364 sponsors (in 47 states) and an additional 405 legislators who have cast a recorded vote (floor or committee) in favor of the bill.



I think I misunderstood you. (Dianne - 8/1/2007 12:11:57 PM)
I thought you were referring to the National Popular Vote initiative. 

Regarding California changing their assignment of electoral votes to the new method described, without every other state doing it (highly unlikely) then that could possibly deliver the President office to the Republicans in '08. 

I think the National Popular Vote initiative is more doable and would deliver the office to whomever won the majority vote of the people.