to lobby for the project, aren't they one of the favorites of this Administration? :-)

I have to ask, whatever happened to the lower-cost probable bid from the Italian tunnel-builders? Or am I behind the power curve here? Should we start over and issue an RFP and see what happens? Admittedly, we've ditzed around so long now it's no wonder costs have skyrocketed, and a few more delays might be helpful rather than hindering things.

The fiscal and monetary policies of this Administration have so depreciated the dollar's value that serious and unconcealable inflation is about to hit the American consumer. Thus, the Federal Reserve is going to have to raise interest rates in order to sell our Treasuries abroad, yet they may have to lower rates to stave off a serious recession.  As you say, Uh... Oh.

I would send a thank you note to the person who reviewed the contract and prepared what is probably the only honest and objective report.  Then I would deep six the entire project and by that I don't mean a tunnel.

Having Metro go out to western Fairfax and Eastern Loudoun County makes sense. I would have designed it to go all the way to Leesburg or maybe even Winchester.

...kick it to the curb. 

Maybe, just maybe, with some really good political maneuvering they could get that Federal money and spend it on something like BRT to Dulles and/or other public mass transit ideas that  make more sense and are cheaper.  Probably wishful thinking on my part, but it's always possible.

And, I don't know why this just struck me, those who ride the Orange line into the city in the morning know that the system tends to get backed up near Rosslyn due to the Blue line trains coming in.  If we add another line pushing in at East Falls Church it will very likely increase the train gridlock, thus rendering the VA part of the system anywhere from annoying to useless.  Now, I'm sure they addressed this issue during all the planning - does anyone know what they came up with to resolve it?  Cuz I just don't see it working.

There was talk of diverting the Blue Line into the tunnel from Pentagon to L'Enfant to free up space in the Rosslyn tunnel.

No one is going to ride glorified buses. While Americans will leave their cars to take rail-based forms of transportation, such as light rail lines, subways, commuter rail, and streetcars, they won't ride buses. Buses don't have their own right-of-way and riders who would use the subway aren't going to ditch their cars for a bus.

a curious stigma.  Perhaps from people's youthful negative experience of being bussed back and forth to school.

From a bigger picture, how is commuting on a train significantly different from commuting on a bus?  It isn't.

Given the negative attitude, a critical part of any push toward buses would include changing the public's perception of buses.  Easier said than done, so part of the funding would have to go toward PR.

Other issues with buses (all fixable):
1. Timing and routes.  Right now they suck.  Period.  More buses covering more destinations more often.  People will sit in traffic in their own cars (and bitch) but they won't stand at a bus stop.  Any bus system must address this problem.

2. Comfort/convenience during the ride.  Not that the Metro train is exactly comfortable, but the rock hard seats on the buses and general ride are even worse.  So improve the comfort and even look to add commuter enhancements like power sources for computers and wi-fi access.

3. Dedicated lanes / rights-of-way.  This is about as easy as it gets - just take over certain lanes at certain times for buses only.  Yeah, the single riders in single cars would scream bloody murder, but if they wanted a nice quick ride they can get on the damn bus.

I'm not against trains.  Not at all - I ride the Metro train on a regular basis.  I just feel that they best used in very close environments (i.e. urban) and for travel between cities.  The train ideal begins to crumble when dealing with the typical suburban environment.  People become spread out and commute/drive in many different directions - which results in all the roads criss crossing the suburbs.  A train can't replicate those patterns for obvious reasons.

Buses can.  By using the same roads designed for cars, the buses can easily travel the same routes.  And when commuting demographics change the bus routes can easily change with them.  They're flexible and re-use infrastructure that is already in place.

Bottom line - I suffer from no delusions that bringing some sort of widely used bus system would be easy.  Far from it.  But when we're talking about multi-billion dollar investments to deal with ever growing and changing suburban sprawl I strongly believe that a greatly enhanced bus system should be part of the plan.  After we get that in place then let's talk new trains.

You covered three issues. 

I call it market differentiation.  Here are my additions to the issues list.

Timing and routes.  Buses work where the density is over 7 houses an acre.  Most bus routes plans use the peanut butter approach.  Spread the routes evenly ignoring the density of the areas served.

Buses will replace cars only when the frequency is quarter hour or better.  How many buses run on hourly schedules?

Faster trip using dedicated lanes.  The I-95-395 bus lanes are being replaced with HOT lanes.  Watch trip times deteriorate.  It happens everywhere. 

Buses and Transit Oriented Development go together.  Density with out mass transportation is gridlock.  Mass transportation without density is not affordable.  You have to look at the market to discuss buses.  High density (over 7 houses and acre) supports mass transit.  Lower densities don't.  This market requires 15 minute service all day. 

Commuter market requires bus lanes faster then the clogged auto competition.  Park and ride lots are a bonus.  Transit Oriented Destinations a necessity.

The no other choice market or captive market is what we currently plan to serve.  Then we complain about fare box recovery.  We need to break the cycle and start connecting land use and transit service.  Then we can advance bus service. 

And they won't. Unless the BRT runs on its own separate right of way--basically lanes that would be where the tracks should be instead--it won't attract riders. Myself, I'm not going to ditch my car to ride a bus on a highway even if it has its own lane. The bus still has to compete against other traffic and lights.

Unfortunately the demographic that we want to use public transportation--white suburban professionals--isn't going to use buses. They just aren't.

At this point, given that failure is not an option, I'd rather have the Metro be built than have nothing done at all. If the project is scuttled nothing will be built for decades.

This seems rather symptomatic of the greater problem of the area.  If we cannot do something about housing and transportation in the D.C. Metro, we are going to lose talent and economic growth to other areas of the country.  It is in the interest of all three jurisdictions and the federal government.  The fact that they cannot seem to come up with something constructive begs the question as to why we elect them.

According to many press reports including this one, last year, Republican congressmen Frank Wolf and Tom Davis warned Gov. Tim Kaine against the tunnel.  Too bad not enough voters noticed last year.

here want to scuttle the Metro to Dulles. BRT is a joke. No one is going to ride glorified bus service to Dulles Airport. People will drive instead.

BRT proposals are a joke. They amount to glorified regular bus service. Buses don't attract people. They don't have their own right-of-way. Glorified bus service is not going to attract riders.

It would be a shame if this project dies at the last minute. The need for rail to Dulles is there. Not building this project will lead to more traffic.

I am surprised to see that much opposition here on a "liberal" blog to expanding public transportation.

It's the cost that everyone is opposed too!! You're saying that rail needs to be built at any cost?? Where is your cap on this project? It's at $5.2 billion and that's the ground floor, so would $6 or $7 or $8 billion be too much? C'mon, even though, I'd love to see rail, it doesn't justify a build at any cost mentality. And that's what this report is saying, the developers know we want rail so bad that we'll pay whatever they want even if it doesn't make sense. I could careless about aerial or tunnel..the math doesn't add up!!

Dulles and the Tysons area need Metro. I would have preferred the tunnel myself, but the FTA's cost formula precluded it. Kaine et al had a choice of either trying the tunnel and losing the project altogether or going with the current scheme. If the project is scuttled it will never be built at all. Do you want that? I sure don't. It is a shame that I see so many people here who should be in favor of it opposing it.

The ONLY thing you've said is that a train is the ONLY answer, NO other solution could possibly work, and this is our ONLY shot for the rest of time.  And anyone who doesn't fully support it shouldn't call themselves a Democrat/Progressive.

What I do know is that it has been four decades that they have been proposing this project and that, if it dies now, it will probably take a very long time to build it or anything similar.

my advice to contractors, regardless of whether it's Bechtel or not, would be "Don't do this project on time and on budget! Sure we can come under $5.2 billion for the good of the public but we'd be laughed at to leave money on the table esp. if the people and state of VA are willing to pay more and lots more. We're the only players, they gotta take whatever we give them or no metro for them." Would you advise the contractors any differently? They'd be fools to leave hundreds of millions on the table if that's the message we send them.

The choice now is either build this project, in spite of its flaws, or never do it. It took decades for the deal to come to this point. To have to start over from scratch and to scuttle it entirely would mean that it won't happen for several decades, if ever.

I think that the ghost of the Big Dig scares everyone when there is a do it at all cost mentality. I'd hate to see this thing double in price from $5.2 to $10.4 billion like it did in Boston. Maybe, you're right cause looks like they're taking out design feature to make this meet FTA effectiveness rules. First price goes up by a lot, now we lose design features...just not good signs at the beginning of a multi billion dollar project.

However, at this point, as it has taken YEARS to get this far, I would hate to see the project die at the last minute. For, in all honesty, given how long it takes to build and propose transportation projects, there won't be anything built for at least a decade, if not longer. In some ways it's honestly now or never.

I won't say that the project doesn't have its flaws. But, in all honesty, if it comes down to having a less than ideal project rather than no project at all, I'd rather have the latter than the former because I don't think that there will be another chance for decades to build rail out to Dulles.

If Dulles Rail is deemed cost ineffective (which it is), the funds earmarked for this project in the Fed budget is for rapid transit, NOT just for rail. Cursory look at the language would indicate that the funds could be applied to BRT.

But then, if we lost all Federal funds for rail, BRT could still be built at no additional projected cost to Fairfax taxpayers - and more than likely at less of a cost. Why? Because the tab that we would need to pick up for the increased cost projections for rail is nearly $1B (yep, that's a "B" for billion). A first class Bus Rapid Transit could be implemented to Dulles, to Mt Vernon and along Braddock Rd for such an investment. Sounds like a regional solution to transportation woes in Fairfax.

No one will ride BRT. It's simple glorified bus service.

First:  People do ride busses. Already, over 14,000 daily bus trips are being counted at the Reston/Herndon park and ride.

Second: BRT does not have to be a glorified existing bus system. We have the dedicated lanes already on the Dulles Access Road - no additional cost there. The same does not exist for the rail.

To increase the bus ridership for BRT, that could easily overtake the projections for Tysons rail, we would need to make it a "Metro Rail on rubber wheels":
  - Build enclosed rail-like stations so that people could get out of the weather;
  - Allow the purchase a destination fare card that would transfer between BRT, rail and neighborhood bus service; and
  - Have the frequency of BRT match that of proposed rail in the corridor.

Already, developers, county officials and county planners are talking about the need to have a robust bus shuttle available in Tysons corner to get people to where they need to go. Rail will not service the entire Tysons area - only about a third of its area.

Obviously, if one really wants a cost effective transportation alternative built quickly, Eric is right, build BRT. It is a real transportation solution and will ease congestion - unlike rail.

Busses do not have to be filthy, noisy and unreliable. The new natural gas busses take care of the first two issues, implementation of a metro rail-like system for BRT will take care of the last issue. The beauty of BRT, as well, is we can have express service to particular locations, i.e. Reston to the Pentagon, WFC to Dulles airport, etc. People have the option to bypass unneeded stops. Plus, if a bus fails, there is no backup of busses behind it (unlike rail) - the system keeps on moving.

I honestly don't see BRT attracting high levels of ridership that its proponents expect. It seems like this thread has been hijacked from those from the American Dream Coalition, which is hostile to any form of public transportation.

I still think BRT is a joke. It's not going to attract the same type of riders who would use rail.

It is such an effective solution in Brazil, New Zealand, Canada and being instituted in Europe, LA and Boston, that it is being looked at as an alternative along I-66 to Haymarket (since the cost of rail will preclude expansion to this area in our lifetime). See the story at http://tinyurl.com/y... "High-speed bus service sought for I-66", Joe Rogalsky, The Examiner, 2007-07-26.

Upon further study, and as a previous supporter of a rail only solution to Dulles, I have been converted to the BRT model. I understand that this is a solution that makes sense not only for transportation  but also for homeland security. The right-of-way (ROW) for rail is only utilized 20-30% of the time; the ROW for BRT can accommodate HOV or Lexus lanes the remainder time and can be used for emergency vehicles, which have a tremendously hard time reaching destinations through our jammed roadways. Plus, in a national emergency, BRT ROW could be converted to car lanes to move people out of the region. You simply can do this with rail ROW. And, as demonstrated in Spain, if the railroad is destroyed, we are SOL.

People aren't going to ride BRT. And at this point, if the project is scuttled, it will probably be years, if not decades, before another project is build to replace it.

DCRA and the County acknowledges that there are over 14,000 daily trips being made from the Reston/Herndon park and ride. Of course people will ride busses, especially if it takes them to their destination, they run frequently and are on a dependable schedule. Why do you keep insisting that people won't ride the bus?

This thread has been hijacked by absurdity - how is supporting public buses and BRT being hostile to any form of public transportation?  Further, most people here do believe in trains, it's just that we feel this massive investment would be better spent somewhere else (public transport related) first.

You've got all spin and no substance in your comments - so what gives?  If you don't own stock in Bechtel, what's your angle?  Own property along the proposed line?  Work for FCCC? A member of bus haters anonymous? 

I am not any of those groups, but I did work in the Tysons area in the past. If I still worked in the area I'd take the subway there, but I wouldn't take the glorified bus service that BRT amounts to.

I also know that if the choices were buses are cars, people would pick cars. BRT just amounts to glorified bus service.

What do you personally find so disgusting about public buses yet you'd be perfectly happy on a public train?  Ignore what "everyone" will do - why is it that you won't take a bus but will take a train?

They are unreliable. They break down all the time. They have to share the same lanes as traffic. I'm not convinced that a Dulles BRT would be sophisticatedly designed enough to provide what the Metro does. The Metro has it is own right-of-way, runs away from the street, and doesn't get stuck in traffic. I also see BRT as a half-assed way to create a subway. I don't think that it is as compelling as a rail-based option.

You are mistaken when you say that BRT doesn't have its own right-of-way. In the context of this discussion, BRT has a dedicated right-of-way already built in the Dulles corridor.  It's called the Dulles Airport Access Road (DAAR).

As opposed to rail, the road is already built and the Metropolitan Washington Airport Authority (MWAA) already has a policy in place allowing use of this road by mass transit (including BRT).

the same lanes as cars. And I don't think that they will allow lanes on both sides to be given up for cars. If you made it like a subway, except having lanes where the tracks would be, perhaps it would work. But even then I don't think that people will ditch their cars to ride a bus even if it looks like a subway.

The beauty of using the DAAR (Dulles Airport Access Road) for BRT is that is it is currently underutilized so it can easily accommodate BRT traffic. It is a dedicated right of way (ROW) with two lanes of traffic. If a car breaks down, traffic can bypass the problem; if a rapid transit bus breaks down, those busses following it can pick up delayed passengers and pass by the problem. If a rail car breaks down, it delays all cars behind it.  I've been on Metro Rail to National Airport when this has happened. Nothing like a nail-biting experience wondering if you will make your flight when your "hour cushion" is eaten up waiting to clear a rail car from a track.

As Hiker Joe mentioned, MWAA (Airport Authority) already has a policy in place that would allow BRT to utilize the DAAR with cars. And, rapid transit connections can be made from the heart of Reston and Herndon, which can't be done with the current proposal for rail.

I just don't. I won't ride a glorified bus. Most people won't ditch their cars to ride a bus.

The Dulles Rail Corridor Assoc and the County of Fairfax have shown that there are over 14,000 daily users of busses from the Reston/Herndon Park and Ride. That is ALOT of people taking a bus from one location.

What data do you have to state that no one will take a bus?