I would almost move Sen *cough* Governor Kaine back in the odds. He'll stay on as Virginia's top executive through his full term.

That leaves a bunch of Republicans with decent odds of going after the nomination... The RPVA could stand a little more disunity, and I kind of like the sound of Senator Grisham.

Would Brian Moran and/or Creigh Deeds consider the U.S. Senate?

I just worry that Don Beyer is the best name anyone can come up with in the event that Mark decides against it. No offense to Don, but Davis, Bolling or McDonnell would be very formidable. I think Sen. Deeds would be our best candidate in a statewide race after Mark Warner.

Your Harris Miller analysis is spot on!

What would you put their odds at?

State Senate to U.S. Senate is a slightly more realistic jump than State House to U.S. Senate. Also I think I heard or read somewhere that Brian Moran might be willing to convert a potential campaign for Governor into one for Lt. Governor.

Say...Deeds 25-1, B. Moran 35-1.

i think he would be rather high up this chart. After all, where was Webb  at this point two years ago???

How you get Don Beyer the same odds as Tom Davis.

a nasty, intra-party fight on his hadns for the Republican nomination?  Something tells met that conservatives may have something to say about this before all is said and done.

a gopper left in the state with whom conservatives would be happy who hasn't already held at least one disastrous term as a statewide or given strong indications that they are running for other office? Allen and Gilmore don't count, and neither do Bolling or McDonnell...Ollie North????? :)

But, provided Davis makes it out of a primary (if he recieves a challenge at all), he is a much stronger general election candidate than Beyer. And even if Mark Warner doesn't run for the seat, there's no guarantee that Beyer, if he ran, wouldn't be challenged in a primary.

I don't neccesarily disagree that Davis's odds, but with Beyer's. I think 6-1 is very generous, especially when the guy is virtually invisible in the current political environment.

going.  What would you place Beyer's odds at, 10:1?  20:1?

I would probably put Bolling higher up, maybe 20-1, and put Beyer at either 10-1 or 15-1.

At this point, there are three confirmed potential Senate candidates: John Warner, Mark Warner, and Tom Davis. All three have discussed publically the chances and different scenarios, while not really confirming in stone anything. Everything that Bolling and McDonnell does says "I'm running for Governor". And the rest of the delegation has been mute on the issue, unless I'm missing something. Between Boucher's seniority and Cantor's leadership position, I can't see either of them giving up their safe house seats. Goodelatte may be an option, but I can't see him either fundraising competitively or campaigning well in Richmond or NoVa.

As far as Beyer is concerned, he won points on the blogosphere for his Dean support, and he was active in the Webb campaign (and I'm sure the Kaine campaign, but I wasn't paying that close attention back then). But beyond that, I haven't really seen him stay active in politics, or offer anything substantial, policy-wise, to suggest he was more than an endorsement. He may be making the behind-the-scenes move to set-up a statewide bid, but as far as I can tell, he's practically invisible. While he would be a decent statewide candidate, with the amount of new population Virginia has had since he was LG, I don't think he can claim a real support base. There is a lot of time left, to be sure, and he could easily ramp up to a campaign, especially if Mark Warner passed on the race and endorsed Beyer. Then again, he could get in the race and Warner could endorse someone like Moran. Either way, the only thing I've heard about Beyer is speculation on the blogs, and I can't see how that ranks him equal with heir apparent Tom Davis.

He has taken some visible role in endorsing candidates and in the Dean campaign but he's also been a potent fundraiser behind the scenes.

I don't know if that translates into votes in a general election but most of the politicians and activists still know him and appreciate his good work bringing in money.

John Warner is not a shoo-in.  You can run against him on his support of President Bush's incompetence, his ongoing cheerleading on the Iraq War, or just that it's time for a change.  His fundraising numbers show that even if he DOES run, his heart isn't in it.

Where is Virgil's name in this list of potential Senate candidates? Odds?

His district is safe-DEM so we wouldn't have to worry about that at least. Yeah I worry he's maybe too liberal, but you'd have to think it's crossed his mind at some point.

...but if he were, he'd certainly be a formidable candidate.

At least that was his position on the matter the last time I asked him.

While I agree that Boucher could be a formidable candidate, I hope that he stays where he is.  First, I would hate to lose the 'hardest working congressman' even to the Senate and Second, I'm afraid we might lose the Ninth district seat.  Boucher's moving on would certainly encourage the Kilgore twins to try for Congress.

Speaking of the Kilgores, Where would you all put Jerry Kilgore's odds.  I'd go at least 50-1, maybe 100-1 equal with his mentor George Allen.  I hope that he's done with politics, but some locals are hinting that he may consider a 2008 or 2009 run.  Possibly for Attorney General again.

When you get past Mark Warner, I'm not sure who would be the front runner.  I agree that Beyer would probably be lower down than 6-1.  While those of us who are active in party circles know him well, most newcomers haven't even heard the name.  I would put Deeds and Moran both above Beyer for that very reason.

They are out there walking the walk and talking the talk. Both bring fresh perspectives to Democratic politics. Best of all, they are not interchangeable. This is the strength of the Democratic Party in Virginia; the weakness of the Republicans.

Okay, I have a bit more colorful past than some and I allow that I speak from some life experience. It is the market that sets odds, not prognosticators. Real money and real people who assess the risk to their money are the input that result in actual odds. What we have here is a betting sheet that is one person's best guess of the outcome. For now, it is as reliable as anything out there.

Everyone comes to the table with different information and that influences their takes on the risks. For instance, in casual conversation last week, I was told that the other shoe would drop on George Allen if he sought office again; I am intrigued about the pospect and trust the source. So 100-1 would be sweet odds for me to bet against the former Senator. That information will eventually drive the odds higher.

You also have to put yourself across the table and see what it would take to influence you to bet against your candidate. I have to tell you that at 25 and 35 to 1 respectively, I'd have to have some of that Deeds and Moran action right now.

Quite frankly, as Michael Vick might say, I have no dog in this fight, but you couldn't find a Democrat I'd bet on before Senator Deeds or Delegate Moran at these odds; so my assessment is that they rank higher than even the Governor's 15-1 in the Senate race. And based upon my casual exposure to Representative Davis, I would be pulling for that fellow in the Republican primary if he runs. I'll tell you why: LtGov Bill Bolling is not Darth Vader and he is far from dumb. He's way wrong about George Allen, but he is sincere and honest. He might even set the stage for a campaign on the issues.