Today's Washington Post has a fascinating article and graphic on Northern Virginia politics. The article lays to rest many misconceptions about Northern Virginia. For instance, that it's a monolothic blob:
"To the rest of the state, Northern Virginia is a single-cell amoeba," said Del. Brian J. Moran (D-Alexandria). "Those of us in Northern Virginia see its individual parts. It's far more diverse than the rest of the commonwealth thinks of us."
Or that it is just an appendage of Washington, DC, not even really part of Virginia:
...with an influential and established business community, burgeoning cultural and arts institutions, new college campuses and Tysons Corner eager to serve as "downtown," there is a growing sense of identity among the region's more than 2 million residents."I think even more so than ever in the past," said Sean T. Connaughton, the Republican chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors. "And I think Northern Virginia is starting to have its own identity that is separate from Washington."
Finally, for anyone who doubts Northern Virginia's importance to Virginia, just read this opening paragraph:
By most measures, Northern Virginia is the colossus of the commonwealth, supplying about a third of the state's voters, the engine of its economic growth, the center of its wealth. Lop it off at the Rappahannock River and the State of Northern Virginia would be the richest in the union.
In terms of politics, we learn that Mark Warner carried Northern Virginia by nearly 50,000 votes in 2001, as did John Kerry in 2004. Fairfax County alone ("the million-person, urban-suburban behemoth that is nearly twice as big as Prince William and Loudoun combined) gave Mark Warner a 26,000-vote margin in 2001, and John Kerry a 34,000 vote advantage in 2004. The "inner suburbs" of Arlington, Alexandria and Falls Church went overwhelmingly -- more than 2:1 -- for Mark Warner in 2001 and John Kerry in 2004. In other words, the NOVA inner suburbs, including Fairfax, are solidly Democratic.
In contrast, the fast-growing but far-less-populated "exurbs" of Fauquier, Loudoun, Stafford and Prince William counties lean Republican, but not nearly by the 2:1 ratios seen in the inner suburbs. In Prince William County, for instance, Mark Warner barely lost to Mark Earley (R) in 2001. Same thing in Loudoun County. These two counties are the two largest by far in "outer" NOVA, and it seems that they are only "red" by a slim margin (about 3,000 votes each in 2001 for Mark Earley over Mark Warner out of nearly 250,000 votes cast). In fact, Sen. William C. Mims (R) is quoted as saying that the new people moving into Loudoun County "are less likely to be reliably conservative."
Meanwhile, according to the Post analysis, Fairfax County is becoming more urban
with more single people, immigrants, racial minorities, all living in a more densely populated place. Those demographic changes were one reason the county gave Kerry a nearly 35,000-vote advantage last year, strategists of both parties agree.
In other words, Northern Virginia leans Democratic and appears to be moving even more in that direction. The question is, what kind of margin will Tim Kaine gather over the two Republicans in the race -- Jerry Kilgore and Russ Potts -- on November 8, 2005? That, more than anything else, will likely determine the results of this razor-close election.