There's a fascinating article about Sen. John Warner and Rep. Tom Davis in Human Events (slogan: "Leading the Conservative Movement Since 1944"). According to the magazine's political editor, John Gizzi (bolding added for emphasis):
After thirty years in the Senate -- exceeding the tenures of past Old Dominion Sens. A. Willis Robertson, Carter Glass, and Harry Byrd, Sr. and Jr. -- John Warner really has no reason to stay on. With odds favoring a Democratic majority next year, the chances of the 80-year-old senator regaining a key committee chairmanship are slim.
That's interesting, but what really caught my eye was this:
The worst-kept secret in the state is that Rep. Tom Davis of Northern Virginia will run if Warner calls it quits. The two are close (longtime Davis political operative John Hishta ran Warner?s re-election bid in ?96, the last time he was seriously challenged for renomination and in the general election) and sources close to both men expect Warner will give Davis a heads-up on his retirement announcement.[...]
Should Warner step down next year, it is almost a foregone conclusion that the state committee, top-heavy with conservatives, will opt for the convention system. This does not bode well for Davis (lifetime American Conservative Union rating: 70%), whose positions on abortion and the issues of federal employees have irked Republicans on the right.
Who would challenge Davis in this Republican nominating convention? Gizzi mentions three names as the possible "anti-Davis": former Gov. Jim Gilmore (now going nowhere in the 2008 Presidential race); Rep. Eric Cantor (R-7th); and Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-6th). These are all hard-core conservatives who would present a great challenge to Tom Davis in a Republican convention, no doubt. I wonder if Gizzi is right (he obviously is biased towards the right wing of his party and probably isn't a big Tom Davis fan) in his analysis. If so, I wonder if Davis has taken the convention possibility into his calculations and figured out a way to avoid it. Finally, what about George Allen, could he rear his phony Virginia cowboy schtick again? Stay tuned...
It was also discussed here.
Goodlatte is kind of a wet blanket. Forbes and Cantor both have Tom Delay/Ambramoff baggage. I'm not sure that the Republican base will care about that.
I guess most people are writing off George Allen - it seems he was happier as Governor. Maybe that's where he's headed. I can't imagine him never running again.
DPVA should also be lining up solid challengers for each of these congressional seats in case they are vacated. I don't see the environment getting any better for the R's in the next 12 mos. It's not clear to me, but if they have a convention, they might be able to avoid several open congressional seats for people wanting to move up.
Additionally, there could also be a legislative vacancy or two because of this that ought to be on the Caucus' radar.