For over 25 years, people have bandied about prophecies of the Republican Party's imminent doom. They have talked about how the GOP's unwieldy alliance -- Barry Goldwater libertarians and Pat Robertson/Jerry Falwell "social conservatives;" internationalists and isolationists; fiscal conservatives and pork-barrel pols; "government is the enemy" and "reform government, don't destroy it" types; pragmatic moderates and super-ideological, take-no-prisoners right-wingers; pro-immigration and anti-immigration; pro-trade and anti-trade -- would soon be collapsing from its own internal contradictions. The only problem is, this fantasy of American liberals and moderates has never come to pass. And it may never come to pass. But, for the first time in a LONG time, I actually believe that it's possible it actually COULD come to pass.
Look at these stress points and fissures:
1) The Iraq War disaster. According to former Colin Powell chief of staff, Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, a "cabal" led by Vice President Dick Cheney had -- according to the Financial Times -- "hijacked the government's foreign policy apparatus, deciding in secret to carry out policies that had left the US weaker and more isolated in the world."
2) The Hurricane Katrina debacle, aka "Brownie you're doin' a heck of a job!" Just yesterday Homeland Security director Michael Chertoff was blasted on Capitol Hill, where he pointed the finger at FEMA for the debacle and directly refuted former FEMA Director Michael Brown's finger-pointing at state and local "dysfunction."
3) The massive budget deficits due to the Republican Congress' tax cuts and out-of-control spending. This past fiscal year, the Federal deficit was a mind-boggling $319 billion, and that was an improvement! Now, House Republicans are attempting to slash programs such as Medicaid and student loans. But not, of course, the massive tax cuts and giveaways to the ultra-rich and mega-corporations like ExxonMobil.
4) The Bush nomination of Harriet Miers to the Supreme Court. This one has been particularly nasty. As Business Week puts it, "From columnists George Will to Charles Krauthammer, from patriotblog.com to redstate.org, conservative bloggers and columnists have shocked the White House by showing how little they trust the Commander in Chief [on the Miers pick]."
5) The Bush Administration's two-facedness and flip flops on campaign finance reform (strongly against it...until Bush signed McCain-Feingold), pork barrel spending (against it in principle, wildly FOR it in practice), Social Security, abortion, free trade (for it except when they're busy being protectionist to win votes in key states), Homeland Security (against it before they were for it) the 9/11 Commission (ditto), North Korea (against negotiating before they negotiated), and many other issues.
6) Scandals galore (Memogate, Cheney Energy Task Force, Indian Gaming, Halliburton, Tom DeLay, Bill Frist, Plamegate -- Karl Rove, Dick Cheney's office, Robert Ney and Jack Abramoff). Just yesterday, an ARREST WARRANT was issues for House Republican leader Tom DeLay! Can we say, "mug shot?"
7) Bush's plummetting popularity, now around 30%. Even worse, only 31% of Americans believe our Republican-led country is headed in the right direction, according to the latest Gallup Poll. "Hey Dubya, you're doin' a heck of a job!!"
8) The Terry Schiaivo debacle, in which Republicans proved they were wildly out of touch with the American people on personal, private family matters about life-and-death issues. According to a Pew poll on this issue, only 20% of Americans agreed that "Congress did the right thing in getting involved in the [Schiavio] case," with a whopping 74% saying "Congress should have stayed out."
We could go on and on, but we'll spare you. The point is, 5 years of Republican rule have led to disasters, debacles, deficits, divisiveness, and indictments. Presumably, the United States of America will survive another 3 years of Bush/Cheney ineptitude and insanity. The question for discussion here, however, is more specific: will the Republican Party survive it? Or, will the unwieldy coalition described above rip apart at the seams?
More immediately, will we see a Republican civil war in Virginia after November 8th, especially if -- as it now appears more likely every day -- Kilgore/Bolling/McDonnell lose the election in 19 days? Will we see Chamber of Commerce "tax and spend" Republicans and "Club for Growth" anti-tax fanatics at each others' throats? Pat Robertson/"Taliban Bob" social issue radicals battling Russ Potts moderates? George Allen Ultra-Conservatives fighting John Warner Mainstream Republicans?
Of course, nobody knows what the future will bring. Still, it doesn't look great for the Republican Party at this point. Will it pull itself together or self destruct into the dustbin of history? I for one can't wait to find out. As George W. Bush might way, "Bring it on!"