John Warner Helping Tom Davis?
By: Lowell
Published On: 6/25/2007 6:26:09 AM
Today's Washington Times regales us with yet more musing about the future of John Warner and his Senate seat. According to the Moonie paper Times:
Virginia Sen. John W. Warner has said little about whether he will run for re-election, but the 80-year-old Republican is giving clear indications that he will not return for another term and that his coyness is merely an attempt to help Rep. Thomas M. Davis III, a fellow Republican, replace him.
"There has been considerable discussion about the possibility that [Mr. Warner] might delay an announcement of candidacy, then announce he wasn't going to run, to allow Congressman Tom Davis to build up at the beginning of the campaigns, which would give Davis an advantage," said Morton C. Blackwell, chairman of the Virginia's Republican National Committee and leader of the conservative Leadership Institute.
The article then speculates about a potentially rough intra-party contest between "conservatives" like Jim Gilmore, Bob Goodlatte, Randy Forbes or Eric Cantor and a "moderate" like Tom Davis. Morton Blackwell predicts that "a strong conservative candidate would probably win our nomination." If true, that could rule out Tom Davis, who is actually quite conservative but is not perceived that way by Attila-the-Hun Republicans (in large part due to his support for embryonic stem cell research, apparently).
In the end, it appears that Republicans have an almost impossible choice, especially if the Democratic nominee is Mark Warner. Do they nominate Tom Davis and risk "conservatives" staying home against Mark Warner? Do they nominate an arch-conservative and lose moderates and independents? Worst of all, do they nominate a right-winger from outside Northern Virginia and get creamed in Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria, Loudoun, Prince William, etc? Stay tuned, but for now it looks like John Warner is trying hard to help Tom Davis succeed him in the U.S. Senate.
Comments
I said this MONTHS ago (Not Harry F. Byrd, Sr. - 6/25/2007 6:50:29 AM)
Why didn't the Washington Times site to me?
http://www.raisingka...
Nah (Afton Dem - 6/25/2007 8:00:10 AM)
Unfortunately, John Warner is going to run again. And won't be given a significant challenge by either side of the aisle.
What are you basing this on? (Lowell - 6/25/2007 8:08:56 AM)
Just about every single person I've talked to, and just about every article I've read on this subject, indicates that John Warner will likely announce his retirement sometime later this year. Do you have other information? If so, what is it? Thanks.
34th Senate (Alice Marshall - 6/25/2007 11:31:02 AM)
If JMDD loses this year I seriously doubt the senior partner of Davis enterprises would run statewide. He would be preceived as damaged goods. Chap can deliver a devasting blow to Virginia Republicans if we help him.
When? (David Campbell - 6/25/2007 2:58:57 PM)
If John Warner intends to delay the announcement of his retirement to help Tom Davis, when would be the optimum time to make the announcement? It would need to be late enough to keep other potential challengers from having time to raise sufficient campaign funds but early enough fro Davis to organize and launch a succcessful campaign. When would that be?
September (David Campbell - 6/25/2007 3:04:35 PM)
I guess we will have to wait until September. Would Mark Warner be able to gear up for a campaign on such short notice?
That would give Mark Warner 15 months (Lowell - 6/25/2007 3:11:03 PM)
There's nothing short notice about that, especially when Jim Webb "geared up" in March 2006 for a primary in June and a general election that November.
Mark is the only one (Alice Marshall - 6/25/2007 4:47:40 PM)
who can do that on short notice.
The wose case is if Mark hems and haws and decides at the last minute he would really rathe run for Gov. That would leave us scrambling for a candidate.
If Mark is not willing to take on John a second time, then he needs to get out of the way for someone who is willing.
Too easy to pass up :-p (novamiddleman - 6/25/2007 5:35:59 PM)
Ah, the sweet sound of Democrats in a cat fight. Raaaaaaaaaaeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrr!!!!!!!!!
What's the cat fight? (Lowell - 6/25/2007 5:47:02 PM)
We all want Mark Warner to run, and we are all confident that if he does, he'll win big time. Doesn't sound like a fight to me.