Jim Webb
May 24: 54% approval, 36% disapproval (+18)
June 19: 44% approval, 41% disapproval (+3)
John Warner
May 24: 62% approval, 29% disapproval (+33)
June 19: 53% approval, 34% disapproval (+19)
Besides the fact that both Webb and Warner fell sharply from May (15 points for Webb, 14 points for Warner), there are a few interesting details in the poll results:
*Webb fell from 61% approval among African Americans in May to just 38% approval in June. What is THAT all about?
*Warner also fell sharply among African Americans, from 61% approval in May to just 40% approval in June.
*Strangely, despite a controversial vote on Iraq War funding, Webb's support actually increased among Democrats, from 67% in May to 69% in June. Webb's support fell sharply among Independents, from 50% in May to just 38% in June. I'm not sure what that's all about either.
*Webb fell from 46% approval among Hispanics in May to just 24% approval in June. Could that be related to the immigration debate?
Overall, these are some weird results, very hard to explain. The gist of it, however, is that Virginians are far less pleased with their two Senators this month than they were last month. The question is, what changed in the past 4 weeks? Any thoughts?
[UPDATE: A SurveyUSA poll released on June 18 has Tim Kaine with a 58% approval/32% disapproval rating. That's better than either Senator Webb or Warner, but also down from May's numbers (67% approval/26% disapproval).]
Obviously Congress has angered voters by failing to cut off funds for the Iraq War. But it also took a worst-of-all-worlds approach to immigration -- taking the heat for taking on the issue, then failing to get anything done. If you're not going to get anything done, why take the heat?
Overall, I can't blame voters for being frustrated with Congress -- Democrats for not being able to push their agenda through, and Republicans for filibustering almost everything. Congress has done nothing ethics, energy, immigration, Iraq, the deficit, global warming ... what accomplishments CAN members of Congress point to?
Taking TGM point a step further, I suspect there's an overall level of frustration with all congress critters not only because we're having the usual problems, but because the November vote represented a major change and so far nothing is very different. Or at least it doesn't seem different to the average American.
If people think that the new crop of elected leaders has already devolved into mirror images of those they replaced, those people are going to be unhappy. Expectations have not been met - the only thing worse than a bad government is raising hopes that a good government is coming in and then failing to deliver on that hope.
Watch the toad like republicans blame everything on the democrats.
And what about negotiations to install labor protections and the right of collective bargaining in our trade agreements? I find it ironic that republicans and the corporatists who argue so strongly for globalisation for business fight it when labor tries to go global. All these questions meld into the immigration and foreign trade questions.
As for Iraq (and, ultimately, Iran), the Democrats squandered their chance during the debate on funding--- frightened to be seen as "surrendering" they caved in. No Democrat responded to the republican attacks, no one presented the Democratic case, no one re-framed the debate in a way more favorable to the Democrats. I truly believe the national Democrats are setting themselves up to lose the next election. They get no respect because they earned none. "Dangerfield Democrats."
Webb's numbers are trickier to explain, but they're going to share some similarities between both Kaine and Webb. First off, I don't know how visible he's been lately for non-democrats around the state, and if you're not as visible, your numbers aren't going to be as much about what people think about you specifically but more about how people feel about things in general. Surely this accounts for the independent voters, who have seem to have less esteem every day for the Government's ability to accomplish anything.
This might also be reflected in his fall off among black voters (I don't know how much minority outreach he's continuing to do post-election, but he needs to keep working on it). I can't help but wonder, too, if perhaps part of that aftermath of the Lambert/McEachin primary? Yes, Benny started it, but there's sure to be some bad blood among the people who supported him and are sorry to see him lose. That primary was basically entirely about the Webb/Allen race, and while I'm glad Webb and McEachin won, I think Webb's going to pay a price at least in the short-term with some African Americans for not just letting the whole thing slide.
I mean, even Congressman Jefferson (D-LA) is finding supporters who think he's being set up by whites because he's black, and the FBI found bundles of cash in his freezer!
Also, it seems like there's a general malaise right now in reference to the war and other factors (gas prices is a guess).
SurveyUSA is not the most reliable poll, but it does have some value in terms of tracking overall trends. The big drop across the board for all three VA politicos is indicative of something.