The Blackburn-Stosch senate primary in Henrico appears to have fallen under the radar. Stosch won by a mere 266 votes - and both candidates must have been scratching their heads on Wednesday morning trying to figure out what happened, but for different reasons.
Stosch was quoted in the RTD saying he thought he would have won by a bigger margin (how delusional!) - and Blackburn, I'm sure, must have been wondering why he lost in a county where conservative Repubs., dominate the local Republican landscape.
And the reason Stosch eked out a win and Blackburn fell short? That's an easy question to answer - Democrats turned out and voted for Stosch. Having touched base with numerous Democratic voters in Henrico, it is clear that a big chunk of them voted in the Repub., primary and huge majorities of them voted for Stosch! Since both Dems., and Repub., track their ID'd supporters by political party, it would be really interesting to see how many Dem's actually voted in the Repub., primary.
Why Stosch? Dems., were fearful of Blackburn winning, seeing him as an impediment to Gov., Kaine's legislative program on schools, roads, etc. And since the district is solidly Repub., Dems knew it was their only chance to have any impact on who was elected to this seat. Had I lived in Henrico, I think I would have taken the opposite view and voted for Blackburn, in hopes that Repub., would be perceived by VA voters as out of the mainstream of where most VA voters are. It makes you wonder how many Dems followed that way of thinking in senate districts 1 and 22, where moderate, Republican incumbents were defeated by right-wing, conservative challengers, opening the door for Dems to win these two seats in November.
Stosch voted for then Gov., Warner's tax package and was seen as the more moderate candidate and more willing to work with Dem., governors on their legislative agenda. Stosch is now occupying ground in the VA Senate similar to where Sen., Snowe, Collins and Spector stand in the U.S. Senate. And of course, this must outrage conservatives in Henrico, especially those in the Tuckahoe district, along the River Road corridor who turned out in high numbers for Blackburn - I'll shed a tear for them later today!!
And Joe Blackburn must wish VA had registration by party - because without Dems voting in the primary, he probably would have won. But Blackburn seems to have missed opportunities in the county and perhaps his GOTV efforts missed the mark in some areas. He won precincts in which you would have expected him to win - the older neighborhoods in Tuchahoe District, such as Maybeury, Debyshire, Freeman, Tuckahoe, and some of these he won by big margins. But in Three Chopt and Brookland districts, he won some of these same type neighborhoods but with margins lower than I would have expected, such as Skipwith, Greendale, Longan, Summit Court and Hilliard. And how he lost Dumbarton, Lakeside, Three Chopt is anyone's guess - bit I know many Dems in these precincts who voted for Stosch.
And the biggest surprise is Blackburm losing Goochland County - who knew there were moderate Repub., in Goochland of all places!! Blackburn losing Goochland was a surprise and it makes you wonder how much time he spent out there.
Oh well - the Repubs will continue their internal bickering - and the rest of us can kick back and watch them, wearing a smile on our faces!!
There were no organized efforts to turn out Democrats by Stosch. If there had been it probably wouldn't have been as close as it was.
The conservative center of Henrico is located in the Three Chopt precincts northwest of Broad Street. River road is predominantly Main street Republican-you can see all this in the Webb results.
Former Vice Chair
Henrico Democratic Committee
The Main Street types living south in the River Rd., corridor ARE conservative - they are so conservative they squeak when they walk and their political philosophy is more in-line with Atilla the Hun than Walter Stosch. And this area is the conservative center of Henrico. But lets shake down the data so I can buttress my arguement.
You opine that the conservative center in Henrico is in the precincts located in northwestern Henrico north of Broad Street. I assume you are referencing Sadler, Rivers Edge, Shady Grove and Innsbrook. The precincts I referenced in southwestern Tuckahoe District are Derbyshire, Tuchahoe, Freeman, Maybuery and I forgot Mooreland. So lets compare vote totals and turnout percentages - please note that precincts you referenced were all won by Stosch; the precincts I referenced were all won by Blackburn:
Sadler:
240 - Stosch
147 - Blackburn
9.5% turnout
+93
Rivers Edge:
186 - Stosch
139 - Blackburn
14.8% turnout
+47
Shady Grove:
240 - Stosch
121 - Blackburn
12.8% turnout
+119
Innsbrook:
114 - Stosch
88 - Blackburn
10.6% turnout
+26
Derbyshire:
296 - Blackburn
181 - Stosch
28.5% turnout
+115
Freeman:
117 - Blackburn
62 - Stosch
10.6% turnout
+55
Maybuery:
297 - Blackburn
170 - Stosch
21.3% turnout
+127
Mooreland:
305 - Blackburn
298 - Stosch
37.2% turnout
+7
Tuckahoe:
537 - Blackburn
399 - Stosch
27.6% turnout
+138
Look at turnout numbers in Tuckahoe v. Three Chopt. Had turnout in those 3 Chopt precincts matched Tuckahoe's turnout and Stosch won those precints by the same margins, Stosch would have won by close to 1000 votes - and the impact of Dem's voting would be mute. They would have added to Stosch's margin, rather than actually being the margin! And Tuckahoe's turnout numbers blew away 3 Chopt's - 3 Chopt's highest % turnout was in River's Edge with 14.8. Tuckahoe had 4 precincts with turnout over 20%, and some were WAY over 20%! Look at 27.6 in Tuckahoe precinct, 28.5 in Derbyshire, 37.2 in Mooreland and 21.3% in Maybuery. Those are HUGE! And Blackburn clobbered Stosch in these precincts, except for Moorland.
I think you are correct - those are all Main Street types who live in the River Rd., corridor, but based on the high turnout numbers and the big margins the more conservative candidate (Blackburn) received, it's clear the conservative center is in southwestern Henrico and not in northwestern Henrico. Besides, who turns out in droves for Repub., primaries but the more conservative types? And turn out they did for Blackburn in those areas.
And the fact that Stosch did not target Dems., although is there proof he didn't? - the fact remains a lot of Dems., turned out and voted for Stosch - just the way they did in 1989 when they turned out and voted for Marshall Coleman, thinking he was the easier candidate for Wilder to beat, based on his newly adopted far right stance on social issues, particularly aborton. And it is easy to see it did not take a lot of Dem., votes for Stosch to eke out a victory.
And if you are on the Dem., committee in Henrico, once the voters in the primary are posted to the VRL, run queries and see how many Dem's actually did vote - I think you would be really surprised! And I bet it would be more than 266!!
Democratic primary voters are very savvy and they don't need to be led around by the nose by the local committee.
Goochland is less conservative than the Henrico portions of the 56th. You can see this in the results of the 56th races...