Two new public opinion polls show Tim Kaine leading Jerry Kilgore, but not by much. First, the Rasmussen Reports survey has Kaine ahead by 3 points (49%-46%), "the first time all year that either candidate has reached 49% in a Rasmussen Reports poll." According to Rasmussen, this represents Kaine's largest "lead" of the year, but the ever-fascinating "margin of error" is 3 points (with a 95% level of confidence, if that helps any - ha ha), so this race is very, very close.
The second poll, by Mason-Dixon, also shows a slight edge for Tim Kaine, but this time by only 1 point (45%-44%). Doesn't sound too exciting, but actually this is good news because it shows a gain of 3 points for Tim Kaine since the October 18-20 Mason -Dixon poll (which had Kilgore leading, 44%-42%). It's even better news because it indicates that as undecided voters start to make up their minds, they're breaking for Tim Kaine. Still, this thing is extremely close, basically a dead head. Every single vote is going to count in this one, folks, and it could be a late night this Tuesday.
Key variable: turnout among African Americans, who support Tim Kaine by an 85%-8% margin, especially after the Doug Wilder endorsement the other day. Another key variable: turnout by women, given that Kaine holds a 7-point lead (48%-41%) over Kilgore, especially with the Supreme Court (and Roe v. Wade) up in the air.
The bottom line is that this election's going to be a barn burner, with the future of Virginia, and possibly the White House in 2008, at stake. That's why all of you need to spend this weekend, and Monday if possible, GETTING OUT THE VOTE (GOTV)!
That's it. That's the election right there. Whoever gets out the vote better wins. Period. I'm heading out the door soon to hand out flyers at Metro stops. This weekend I'll be busy canvassing and phone banking. I hope you all will do the same for Tim Kaine, Leslie Byrne, and Creigh Deeds. In other words, go GOTV!!! Thanks.
[UPDATE: I just handed out several hundred fliers at the Metro. It was easy and fun...most people were very receptive to Tim Kaine, many gave me the "thumbs up," etc. Great stuff, but we need more volunteers!!]