A Day the World Didn't Change

By: Eric
Published On: 6/13/2007 10:35:57 AM

The big winner yesterday was the establishment.  The big loser was change.

Looking across the Democratic board (sorry, I haven't been following the Republican battles much so this won't apply to those primaries) it appears that voters went with the status quo. 

The victories for the "establishment":

George Barker, long time Democrat and supported by the Fairfax Board of Supervisors easily won.

Linda Smyth, the face of the Fairfax Board this election, won as well.  Although not by much - more on this further down.

Johnny Joannou defended himself against Henry Light with ease.

Del. Bowling easily held his position against challenger McGlothlin.

Frank O'Leary won in a landslide.

The victories for "change":

McEachin takes out incumbent Lambert

And a few didn't say much about  establishment vs. change:

Vanderhye defeated Sullivan in the closest race (4 point victory).

Simmons defeated Meyer in (I believe) the lowest turnout race.

Implications?

1. Gerry Connolly Wins.
In NOVA, a vote for the establishment was a validation of Gerry Connolly and his programs.  While many will (rightly, IMO) say that the close fight between Smyth and Hall should send a loud and clear message to Connolly, I believe the reality is that no such message will be received.  This isn't a slam on Connolly, it is simply political reality: winner takes all. 
It took everything Smyth/Connolly had to pull off a victory.  They massively outspend Hall.  They flooded the district with positive mailers and very dirty negative mailers.  Connolly had to step in and campaign for Linda and push his political machine hard to get out votes.  They had to lean on the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce and even Governor Kaine for endorsements and support.

And in the end that effort was victorious.  Depending on your point of view, it either showed the Connolly establishment could defend itself against a strong attack or has the support of the majority of people.  Or both.  Regardless, Connolly is free to interpret this victory as a green light to continue to follow his plan.  Close call, but without a Hall victory no message will be received and little will change.

2. The Fall of the Bloggers
RK endorsements went three for six - not bad but certainly not good.  Take a closer look and it looks all bad: two of those endorsements victories went to almost sure things (O'Leary and Bowling).  Which leaves the RK endorsements at one out of four.  Our biggest push recently was in the Hall/Smyth race and I feel we did have a strong positive influence for Charlie, but as noted above, it's winner take all and we didn't win.

Other bloggers here at RK and other sites, most notably NLS, threw heavy support behind Galligan.  That's not to say every blogger supported Galligan, but from online polls, diaries, and comments it's clear a greater number of bloggers were Galligan supporters.  Galligan lost big.

Same sort of argument for Meyer, although at a subdued level compared to the Barker/Galligan race.  Morris had more online supporters than Simmons yet the end result wasn't close with Simmons taking a 20+ point victory.

And I've heard that even on the Republican side, some of the candidates the rightwing blogs supported have lost.

Is it all over for the blogs?  Are the 2005 and 2006 victories for Kaine and Webb to be the high point of the blogosphere?

Of course not.  But the message I see in this is that the blogosphere must seek to engage a greater portion of the general voting population.  If we remain a political club that primarily speaks amongst itself it will be very difficult to get our grassroots messages to the majority of voters - which to me is one of the core goals of the independent political blogosphere.  While that is much, much easier said than done, it is one of the most important things we as bloggers can pursue. 


And now it's time to regroup and get ready for the bigger battle in November.  While many of us may be disappointed in these results, it will be a much bigger disappointment if we can't take back some Republican seats in the Senate or House.  As much as I don't like the fact that certain people won yesterday (you know who I'm talking about), I'm very much looking forward to working with Chap, Janet O., Margi, George, Rex, and the many other Democrats throughout Virginia who will need our help keeping their seats or taking seats from Republicans.


Comments



off your radar (martha - 6/13/2007 11:19:17 AM)
The 23rd HOD will retain Shannon Valentine ( D Lynchburg/Amherst) as its delegate. There is NO opponent for her and now we can possibly reach out and help some Dems around us. I would like for the Lynchburg folks to help Connie Brennan ( D/Nelson County ) defeat Watkins Abbitt!


You lost me (TheGreenMiles - 6/13/2007 11:22:06 AM)
Whoa, whoa, whoa.  Who says Arlington needed change from Frank O'Leary?  Wasn't he just named National Treasurer of the Year or something like that?  Are you advocating change for the sake of change?


Ah - my assessment wasn't (Eric - 6/13/2007 11:45:09 AM)
that either all change is good or all establishment is bad.  Sorry if it was misleading.

The overall point was a very basic observation that voters voted in favor of the establishment.  For each race you'd have to determine whether you feel it's a good thing or bad thing.

Personally, I think we needed change in Providence so the establishment victory was a bad thing.  Same with the Light/Joannou race.  And all Dems should be cheering for change when McEachin pushed out Lambert.

On the flip side, I believe the establishment was the right choice in the O'Leary race and I'm glad he won.  Same with Bowling.

As for other establishment candidates, like Barker, I wasn't strongly in favor or against.  I liked both and took issue with certain positions of both.  So to me, that one is a wash in terms of "is the establishment good"?  But I know a good number of bloggers favored Galligan and the change he represented - so to them the establishment was bad.



I think the terms are being used differently... (Rob - 6/13/2007 11:47:12 AM)
He's just analyzing "incumbent/establishment" v. "anti-incumbent/anti-establishment" trends in yesterday's results, not arguing in that analysis that all of those incumbents needed to go. 


The Democrats went for the safe and the known (LAS - 6/13/2007 12:08:07 PM)
and the Republicans went for crazy.

Okay, that was glib. Seriously, though, it looks like the Republicans went very much to the right in several races. Is that going to work for them?

Their voters want ideological purity, our voters just want to win.



The Fall of the Bloggers - Well No (norman swingvoter - 6/13/2007 1:25:19 PM)
To me the main need is to figure out the best way to use the blog. 
a) I had never been on a blog until Webb's campaign when I stumbled across this one.  It was definitely a source of inspiration.  In fact, I remember when you posted a letter from Webb's commanding officer.  It was really inspirational.  I literally printed out hundreds of copies and passed them out with some brochures that I got from Webb headquarters. 
b) I think that it was a great idea to do some fundraising this time around.  I don't know if the donations were marked as going through the blog but that would increase its stature. Politicans love to be handed money.
 


Do people care about local primaries? (TheGreenMiles - 6/13/2007 1:41:14 PM)
I would be reluctant to make generalizations about any election with such low turnout.  Us political junkies follow them closely, but when 95% of registered voters don't care enough to vote, it says more about how voters feel about the primary process itself than individual candidates/influences.


If voters were passionate about the issues (Lowell - 6/13/2007 1:47:26 PM)
facing their communities wouldn't they show up?  Also, if the media actually covered this stuff adequately, wouldn't that make a difference?


response & new question (TheGreenMiles - 6/13/2007 2:04:36 PM)
Unless people are political junkies, they primarily care about the Dem vs. GOP (vs. indy) contest in November.

As for the media, it covers whatever draws the most viewers/readers.  If consumers demanded it, the media would have to provide it.  It's hard to draw a broad audience for TV or the Post with local contests, so it's left to the local dailies/weeklies.

Let me ask this -- if I can pay my taxes online, why don't I vote online for primaries like this?  Turnout would at least triple.



Online voting (KCinDC - 6/13/2007 8:55:53 PM)
Voting is completely different from taxes. The government is supposed to know how much you owe in taxes and how much you pay; it isn't supposed to know how you vote. We're not worried about people fraudulently paying someone else's taxes, or threatening or bribing people to get them to pay taxes a certain way; we are worried about that for voting. There are enough problems with in-person electronic voting, so until we get that fixed we certainly shouldn't be exacerbating the problem by adding online voting.

If people don't care enough to go to their polling place and vote, I'm not sure I care that they're not voting. In any case, I seriously doubt that turnout would triple.



Here's my theory of what happened (presidentialman - 6/13/2007 2:03:08 PM)
After the 2006 election defeat,Rush Limbaugh said something like Republicanism lost but wasn't rejected. Something like that. It had a lot of denial in it. However,I don't think Raising Kaine lost. I don't think bloggers lost.  I do think that voters didn't care. Now I could be speaking bullshit for all I know, because there was a group who actively was involved in the election on this board, and yet my ignorance supports my theory that the higher the office, the more voters care. The lower the office all the more reason to soak up rays at the beach. Especially in summer. I've worked elections as an election officer in Arlington since 2001. Hardly anyone comes out.  The 2006 election was truely historic because we filled out all our tally sheets. We don't normally do that.

Now the person who said we've got to move this from a political club to a position where we connect with the voters.  Good idea.  Now radio talk shows like Limbaugh, keep in mind that people are in two camps. The dittoheads who turn it on for the news and the swath of people who tune to it for entertainment value, but who don't march in lockstep.  Just my thoughts.