According to state Sen. Richard L. Saslaw (D-Fairfax), last night's results on the Republican side -- which saw the victories of several arch conservatives over relative moderates -- "pushe[d] the Republican caucus as far to right as you can get." Saslaw voices what will surely become a major Democrats campaign theme, and very likely a successful one, this fall: "If we don't gain control, do you want this crowd in charge?"Let's review the State Senate races that may not have been in play previously, but almost certainly are now. Remember that Democrats need just four (4) seats to gain control.
1. In the 1st State Senate District, the victory of Trish Stall, "who once signed a petition for 'ending government involvement in education,'" almost certainly makes this seat competitive. The question is, who are the Democrats going to run here? If they get a strong candidate, this one looks like an excellent chance for a pickup.
2. In the 22nd Senate District, the defeat of conservative Sen. Brandon Bell by far far right winger Ralph Smith should definitely open the door to Democrat Michael Breiner, "a Roanoke County plastic surgeon who raised more money than the two Republicans combined during the last filing period."
3. In the 27th Senate District, the victory of Jill Holtzman-Vogel is causing Democrats to think that "Karen Schultz, an associate professor at Shenandoah University, may be able to claim the seat held by retiring Sen. H. Russell Potts (R-Winchester)." According to the Washington Post, Holtzman-Vogel "is active in the Virginia Conservative Action PAC, which is dedicated to expunging the Senate of moderates." Potts has called Holtzman-Vogel "to the right of Attila the Hun and way out of the mainstream," noting that she "oppose[s] abortion even in cases of rape or incest."
Three right-wing extremists, three more competitive State Senate seats for Democrats to target. Add those to the following:
4. The 6th Senate district, where Dr. Ralph Northam is taking on Nick "FemiNazi" Rerras. Among other things, Rerras has expressed his belief that psychological disorders are caused by spiritual demons. This should be fun! :)
5. The 13th Senate district, Steve Heretick (D) was the leading vote getter in the 2004 Portsmouth City Council race. Heretick won easily last night, and will face incumbent Fred Quayle (R), who demolished his Republican opponent last night, 83%-17%. This one will be tough, but it's possible, given that Portsmouth went 2:1 for Webb over Allen last year. In addition, Surry County went for Webb by 14 points. On the other hand, Isle of Wight County went for George Allen by 16 points. We'll see...
6. The 28th Senate district, where Albert Pollard (D), who has been honored as a "Legislator of the Year" by the Chesapeake Bay Foundation and a "Citizen of the Year" by the Virginia Rural Healthcare Association, faces Richard Stuart (R). In this case, the Republican candidate is actually the more "moderate" one, but Pollard starts the general election race with about three times as much cash on hand as Stuart. This should be interesting.
7. The 34th Senate district, where Chap Petersen (D) has an excellent shot at beating Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis (R).
8. The 37th Senate district, where Janet Oleszek (D) faces far-right-wing Republican Ken Cuccinelli in an increasingly "blue" district.
9. The 39th Senate district, where George Barker (D) should give Jay O'Brien (R) a major run for his money after Barker's resounding victory last night.
The bottom line, unless I'm counting wrong, is that there are 9 potential pickup opportunities for Democrats in the State Senate this fall. Again, we need to pick up 4 seats to regain the majority. Can we do it? The numbers seem to favor us, and the Republican Party is in turmoil after bitter primaries and the departure of Ed "Embedded Lobbyist" Gillespie as state chairman. Also, we've got two ace cards on our side: Tim Kaine and Mark Warner. In contrast, the Republicans have...uh, uh, uh, uh, uh...George W. Bush? Dick Cheney? Jim Gilmore? George Allen?
All of this leads me to agree with Sen. Mary Margaret Whipple, who says "I really think we will have the Democratic majority come November." Yes, we'll have to work our butts off. Yes, we'll have to raise a lot of money. Yes, we'll have to energize our voters with a message that resonates. But all in all, the morning after Virginia's 2007 primaries, I'd much rather be a Democrat than a Republican.
6-competitive
13-long shot
22-competitive
27-long shot
28-long shot
34-competitive
37-currently long shot possibly competitve
39-more research needed
So in summary I'll give you 4 competitives = 2 seats
I'll also toss in one longshot to be nice and as a fudge factor
I see 3 pickups although with the tossups it could be as many as 5 and as few as 1.
Of course many things could and will change by November
Finally, are all of your current D seats safe ;-p
As to the "D" seats, I can't think of any offhand that are in any serious danger. Can you?
I'd like to see Democratic victories across the board, obviously, but a Cuccinelli butt-kicking would be particularly sweet.
And, Lowell, I'd ALWAYS prefer to be a Democrat than a Republican!