This is the final installment of the "Four for Tuesday" series which discusses the top four primary races I'm interested in. The three leading up to today's top race are:And my number one race is, drum roll please...
Hall vs. Smyth
Stunned? Yeah, right. It's not like we've been covering this one recently. ;-)
Six weeks ago this race wasn't on the radar, so what gives? Quite simply - the more I (we) learn about this race the more implications about the NOVA region come out. While the race won't have much of an impact on most of Virginia, I believe results will have a significant impact in the NOVA region - not just Providence.
1. Tysons Tunnel.
It's fairly well known and expected that the "fix is in" for the Fairfax Board of Supervisors to approve the aerial option next week. They all pay lip service to the tunnel option, making statements like they'd "prefer" a tunnel, but ultimately they will be approving the aerial option under rationale that "we need this and aerial is the only way to get it".
That could change tomorrow if Hall wins. The people overwhelmingly support the tunnel option (I've never heard one person say they support the aerial) and if they vote Linda out one of the messages is that "we want a tunnel and heads will roll if we don't get it". This message will make Connolly very nervous and will certainly influence his position. It might not change the outcome, but it will cause him to step back and re-evaluate.
2. Tom Davis.
If John Warner steps down and Tom Davis goes in search of that Senate seat, the 11th House seat is up for grabs. And it will almost certainly go to the Democrats. Right now, it appears that Connolly is the top party choice, poised to follow Davis from Chairman in Fairfax to the U.S. House.
Again, along the same lines as above, a Hall victory would throw a wrench in Connolly's plans. If primary voters choose Hall over Connolly's close ally Smyth they are in part voting against Connolly. And if Connolly wants to become a U.S. Representative he'll first have to get past these very same primary voters next year. Look for Connolly's tune to change significantly if these primary voters send him a message of no confidence tomorrow.
3. Development in Fairfax County.
Same message, different recipient, potentially different reaction. Again, since much of this battle is about land use and development, a Hall victory would signal the voters desire to change how Fairfax approaches development. Hall's responsible development philosophy will likely mean a slower pace of development because, quite frankly, it takes more time to do things right.
And this slower pace may drive many developers to seek deals further out as they will not want to wait the extra time for Fairfax County to do it right. Loudoun and Prince William have already been growing like crazy and this could increase that pace. Or maybe the message would embolden the executive in those counties to seek to curb rapid growth if they think their voters have a similar responsible growth as the Providence voters.
Bottom line with this point - development could be effected in a wide range of ways by a Hall victory. Or maybe it would change very little. But a Smyth victory would almost certainly mean no change in the development landscape.
4. Dirty Politics.
This is a recent, and very bad, turn of events. Smyth has not only gone negative, but done so in a manner which is blatantly false. The timing of these smear attacks doesn't allow much time for the voters to become outraged over such disgusting tactics so I'm not sure how much this will hurt Smyth.
But if there is some backlash, and I sure hope there is from all the self respecting Democrats out there, it'll be saying that we don't support candidates who lie to get into office. That's a strong and important message any Democrat should want to send.
So there it is, that's why I've moved this race from nowhere to my top pick of tomorrow's primaries.
Prediction: I don't have much to go on except the energetic and overwhelming support Hall is receiving from the online community. Or more accurately, the portion of the online community that's following this race.
Anecdotally I've seen more Hall signs out in the medians and in people's yards - especially in areas like Wedderburn who were adversely effected by Smyth's poor development decisions. But signs in the streets don't say too much.
Anger combined with low turnout favors the challenger and both are likely tomorrow. Hell, most people I've talked to don't even know there's a primary, much less who is running.
On the other hand, Smyth has carpet bombed Providence mailboxes and recently phones, so she's getting her message out. Although, given that no one knows there's a primary, I have doubts about whether that message is getting through to anyone.
So what's my prediction? Hell, too close to call but I'll make a call anyway. It's what I'd like to see happen and it's the right thing for Fairfax's future.
Hall wins.
Do you have any proof? Without the proof it's only a rumor, so we'll need something more to go on.
Now I agree with Eric that signs don't necessarily mean much, but the fact that people have put up signs supporting him does possibly speak to how Hall's support base is growing more than just in the blogosphere.
But I've also seen an advantage for Charlie in the yard signs. Again, virtually no signs for Linda. Charlie's are spread out, but they're there. And if you go into the area around the Wedderburn demolition development project you'll see many yard signs in favor of Hall.
but you are correct...I haven't seen any in private front yards....maybe I will drive by Gerry's tonight...
This environmental "commitment" is about as bogus as her other supposed environmental accomplishments.
The result would be more McMansions and the destruction of a bunch of beautiful mature trees.
If she gets elected, any bets on their odds of success?
Her no signs in the median pledge apparently was hot air. Surely she knows of all those signs on Virginia Center Boulevard. I have seen them, too.
How very convenient to make a pledge and not make sure your supporters follow it. It's not like the candidate puts out all the signs personally. But someone at her campaign had to have given those signs. Didn't her campaign tell the recipients about her pledge if she took it so seriously?
The election hasn't even happened and one promise is already down the tubes!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Typical.