Barker vs. Galligan.
I recall listening to the Blog Talk Radio debate and wavering back and forth between the candidates. Both had good points and good positions. Both had, in my mind, bad points and bad positions. IMO, Barker had the right answer for the offshore oil drilling question and I cringed at Galligan's response. Flip side, Galligan nailed the Tysons tunnel issue and Barker sounded just like Gerry Connolly (i.e. to say the tunnel is preferred but will actually vote in favor of the aerial option). I'm glad I don't live in that district because I don't know who I'd vote for.
There was a lot of online talk from both camps about who was working harder - without any real proof that either was not doing a good job in this respect. Without that proof, I'll take the candidate's words and believe that both are working hard to earn votes. I hope they are both hustling from door to door and wearing holes in their shoes. This issue would only make a difference if one was truly a slacker, which does not appear to be the case.
In the RK endorsement contest Galligan creamed Barker in the poll with approximately a 13 point margin. Unlike the Sullivan/Vanderhye contest, both the new registrations and the existing registered users both voted for Galligan (at roughly the same margin as the overall). There can be no denying that Galligan has a majority of the online community on his side.
Which leads me to the reason I see this as the number two contest...
I see this race as establishment vs change. Barker is clearly been a long time player and has the endorsements (and some positions) that scream "establishment". Galligan is newer and has the support of those who tend to lean toward change and want to shake things up a bit - the online community.
Not that either is necessarily good or bad. It's a question of how the voters feel. At least the ones who care enough to vote in a primary. Are the majority of these voters long time party supporters who will vote the old party line or will the energy and passion of change drive the majority of voters? Are voters happy but feel things could still be better? Are voters unhappy but scared of change? I'm looking for a statement to be made that will help set the tone for November.
Prediction: Given that the online community is generally made up of people who are interested in politics, and those are the types of people who care enough to vote in primaries, I'm going to base my prediction off of that group. And by a fairly sizable margin the online community supports Galligan.
Galligan Wins.
Vote for Change, Vote for Galligan.
From what I've seen, Greg hasn't changed much (though at least he's been persuaded to drop those embarrassing camouflage 'Captain Greg' signs). George is not as dynamic a candidate as I'd like to see, and I don't know how much of a chance he'd have, but I do think he'd have a better chance than Greg.