The Insanity of the "Surge"

By: Dianne
Published On: 6/5/2007 9:20:12 AM

Another WaPo article showing the failure of the "surge"

One of our planning assumptions was that the Iraqi security forces would be able to hold [territory] in all areas, and we are finding that is not always the case," said Lt. Col. Scott Bleichwehl, a spokesman for the U.S. military command in Baghdad. "We are having to go back in and re-clear some areas," he said, adding that "slow progress is still progress."

No, slow progress is not still progress when plan A doesn't work and you go back and do plan A again.

If you are developing plans, then you are making assumptions about how your plan will operate because you do not yet have absolutely accurate information.  A good planner should have multiple, reasonable assumptions about what might happen in a particular situation and plan accordingly.  When the plan is executed you validate your assumptions continuously and adjust your plan accordingly.  But you don't keep doing the same thing over and over when you admit your assumptions were wrong!!!

The military itself provides insight into the need to continually validate planning assumptions, in which benchmarks would assist.  MILITARY REVIEW January-February 2005

To develop successful operation plans, military planners rely heavily on political planning assumptions, especially assumptions tied to access, by understanding the uncertain nature of the assumptions and the need to revalidate them. Most joint planners tend to develop apolitical assumptions. The difficulty arises when planning assumptions at the operational level are so dependent on strategic and diplomatic assurances.  Without a change in the way we validate assumptions, fallacies in operational planning and inefficiencies in CAP (crisis action planning) and operations orders will continually plague us.
...
Developing good assumptions at the beginning of
the planning process is crucial, but more important is the continuous validation of assumptions.

Clearly, Bush keeps doing the same thing over and over, never validating that the planning assumptions, that Iraqis would be there when we need them, were valid! 


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