A DOJ Scandal of a Different Sort

Crime data is reported from the various states.  The states in turn get their data from the locales.  It doesn't appear that DOJ altered the data, but they do the next best thing - spin, spin, spin.
A quick perusal of the DOJ Bureau of Statistics Key Crime and Justice Facts at a Glance page delivers numerous reassuring messages.  Crime is going down.  Drug arrests are going up.  And by the way some versions of these charts are proudly featured on the Whitehouse web site.

But  a closer look at some of the details on that page reveals summaries absolutely loaded with convenient omission, "look over here" commentary, and occasional falsehoods.  Here's an example.  Click on the graph to reach the DOJ page.

The increase was far from slight; it was massive.  Here's my plot of the same data - just a bit larger.

And this clarifies the point that describing the increase in 2005 as "slight" is  plainly wrong.

OK, so a slight increase good mean just a little random variation or noise.  It happens.  But the truth is there's nothing slight about the increase in 2005.

• -- The nonfatal firearms crime rate increased by an alarming 42.9% in a single year according to the DOJ data.

• -- The actual number of nonfatal firearms incidents increased by a whopping 49% in 2005. 

Someone made the decision to cast a positive light on recent trends in the nation's crime rates.  Who?  Why?  This is the Department of Justice, not The Martin Agency.  When it comes to reporting data summaries creativity is not among the core skills needed.

Congress needs to find out who is making these decisions at BJS.  And there's no need to wait.  Thoroughness, accuracy and transparency are essential when it comes to crime trends.  The public needs to be informed when crimes of a particular nature are on the rise.

For reference here is the data for the report.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       

Years	Firearm incidents		Firearm victims		Firearm crime rates  (Victims per 1,000  residents)			Firearm crimes  as a percent of all violent incidents
1993	1,054,820		1,248,250		5.9			11
1994	1,060,800		1,286,860		6			11
1995	902,680		1,050,900		4.9			10
1996	845,220		989,930		4.6			10
1997	680,900		795,560		3.6			9
1998	557,200		670,480		3			8
1999	457,150		562,870		2.5			7
2000	428,670		533,470		2.4			7
2001	467,880		524,030		2.3			9
2002	353,880		430,930		1.9			7
2003	366,840		449,150		1.9			7
2004	280,890		331,630		1.4			6
2005	419,640		477,040		2			9
Source:  National Crime Victimization Survey

For more information about  the purposes and advantages of the UCR and the NCVS, see The Nation's Two Crime Measures.

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