Charlie Cook has an interesting analysis in the latest National Journal, out today. The article is behind a subscription "firewall," but here are Cook's main points:*"The war in Iraq is probably the biggest single variable that will influence the outcome of the 2008 presidential and congressional elections...[a]nd Iraq will be a liability for Republican candidates, just as it was last year."
*"Looking ahead to the 2008 election, it's not hard to imagine independents favoring Democratic candidates in numbers similar to 2006."
*"Many observers believe that unless the troop surge unexpectedly succeeds by late summer or early fall, Republican lawmakers will begin saying forthrightly they can no longer support Bush on the war."
*"Regardless of what happens in Iraq, Bush will leave office in January 2009. The question that Republicans on Capitol Hill are asking themselves is how many of them will be forced to leave at the same time."
Perhaps that's why Tom Davis was so busy the other day talking about how Bush only had 5 percent support in parts of the 11th District, and how it was time to "declare victory [in Iraq] and get out of there?"
By the way, why wasn't Frank Wolf at that meeting of "moderate Republicans" and Bush the other day? Perhaps because Frank Wolf is NOT A MODERATE?