According to Bob Gibson at the Daily Progress, a Mason-Dixon poll conducted this past week shows what we've all suspected: "a continued extremely close Virginia seesaw race for governor within the margin of error." The poll results show 41% for Jerry Kilgore (R), 40% for Tim Kaine (D), and 6% for Russ Potts (I). According to Mason-Dixon's managing director, J. Bradford Coker, "This shows really no major change in the race since July." Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia adds, "...the campaigns really matter. It?s not likely to be over until Election Day? on Nov. 8, and perhaps not even then."Good news for Kaine:
*His favorability ratings (35/11, or +24)) are 13 points higher than Kilgore's (33-22, or +11).
*His name recognition (87%) is lower than Kilgore's (94%), which combined with the favorability ratings means that Kaine has upside potential as more people get to know him.
*On one of Kilgore's key issues, taxes, only 19% of Virginians feel that they are "much too high" while 25% say "a little too high." A near-majority of 47% say that Virginia taxes are "about right" with 5% actually saying they are "too low." So much for a Jim Gilmore-style "No Car Tax!" anti-tax rebellion this year in Virginia.
*Mark Warner is an asset for Tim Kaine, with a net 9% saying that Warner's support would make them more likely to vote for the Governor's loyal lieutenant.
*George W. Bush is a liability for Jerry Kilgore, with a net 5% saying that Bush's support would make them LESS likely to vote for the Republcian gubernatorial nominee.
So, what could change this dynamic and push one candidate decisively ahead or behind? Obviously, a major gaffe -- such as Kilgore's "hypothetical" response to Tim Russert's abortion question this past Tuweday -- could seriously hurt one candidate or the other. Then there's the effectiveness of the campaigns, the advertising, and the GOTV ("get out the vote" operations). Finally, there are events outside either candidate's control, such as who President Bush picks to fill the Sandra Day O'Connor seat on the Supreme Court. If Bush picks an arch-conservative, for instance, that could immiediately energize pro-choice women to fight for their rights, given the increased likelihood of Roe v. Wade being repealed and abortion decisiosn being thrown back to the states. If not, this could just play out in back-and-forth jousting and pounding until November 8, at which point the exhausted voters of Virginia will make up their minds and bring this all to a (merciful?) close.