And sort of supporting him, I am leaning more and more toward Gore. If he doesn't run, I still have Obama.

But, I want Gore.

I have a no-hate clause with Obama.  Though I support Edwards, I will do nothing to help derail Obama if he is the only guy who can beat Hillary.

That theory was arrived upon not after looking at the evidence but before he wrote his posting where he tries to string the argument together.

Chris Bowers' analysis of the various polls seems astute, and he may be on to something. Some related thoughts:

Hillary's strength in other major polls appears to be with low information voters, who tend not to bother to vote in primaries. All the same, Clinton is likely to derive some advantage from the old Democratic establishment machine, especially what remains of organized labor. To the extent that the daytime television viewers vote in primaries, she will also have an advantage with them.

Both Obama and Edwards appeal more to yuppies and to the politically engaged--the voters who get their news online or from Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert. Various Netroots polls at MyDD and DailyKos give high numbers to Edwards and Obama, with Hillary typically polling less than 5 percent.

Edwards, of course, has also had some success with organized labor, but Obama hasn't yet quite figured out how to do the same. Obama's grassroots effort seems to lie largely outside of the Democratic machine. He needs to fix that problem, and his low negative ratings and far more promising electability upside compared to Hillary's may help turn party pros and precinct captains in his direction.

What no one has quite figured out is how 2008 will differ in important ways from 2000 or 1992. We tend to fight the last election, not the next one.

We also need to keep in mind that if the continuing occupation of Iraq is joined by a sharp domestic economic downturn--perhaps one triggered by the bursting of the housing and mortgage bubble--there will be an opportunity for an outright electoral blowout and political transformation along the lines 1932. A Democratic victor may then be able to enact a much needed Renewed Deal.

Either Obama or Edwards would be well positioned to lead that transformation. Richardson could do so as well, but at 3 percent in the polls, he is unlikely to challenge the top three. He looks more like a potential VP candidate at this stage.

At the moment it appears that Obama is beginning to pick up the momentum heading towards February 5th. Edwards seems destined to do well early in the Iowa caucuses and also in New Hampshire, and if he wins both, he could make it a horse race. As for Hillary? She seems to have peaked, but she likely has enough core support to prevent a collapse, and she will remain a factor for February 5th.

It looks as though we will have a legitimate, close, three-way race until next February 5th-or the wee hours of February 6th.

What if Gore gets in the race, then how do you see things playing out?

Lowell,

I'm not very good at solving equations with more than two or three variables. It's too confusing, because with multiple variables you end up with multiple possible solutions on the right side of the equation.

When Gore has been included in polls, my recollection is that he has been trailing the top three candidates. If he enters the race, which other candidate would he hurt most in the primaries? From whom would he siphon organizational talent and grassroots enthusiasm? From whom would he divert contributions? At this late date could he raise enough money to be competitive by February 5th? I'd need a lot more data before even hazarding a guess.

Do you have any data points that might lead us to an answer?

are polling, past performance by Gore (in 2000), and sentiment among the netroots.  For instance, see here  for a Daily Kos straw poll from January that includes Al Gore. Note that Gore receives an incredible 58% of the vote, with Edwards in second place at 12%.  And here is a Daily Kos poll from March which indicates that 77% want Gore to run.  Finally, there's the fact that Gore is coming out with a book, "The Assault on Reason," and leading a 7-continent "Live Earth" concert on 7/7/07.  In other words, Gore's going to be in the news in coming months. A lot.  If he wants to run, my guess is that he'll announce around Labor Day and will quickly transform the Democratic nomination contest.  We'll see, though...as you say, there are many variables at work.

Much to chew on.

But wouldn't Labor Day be too late to ramp up for February?

Anyway, these are good data points to ponder. Thanks.

for pretty much any other candidate except for Al Gore.  Maybe Newt Gingrich could do it on the Republican side, I don't know.  But my guess is that Gore would raise tons of money FAST from a pumped-up netroots...

Rasmussen nailed all the Senate races so you have to take this poll seriously. Although I'd rather see numbers in early primary states.

Gore-Obama would be quite the dream team, but then again, so would Obama-Kaine.