In today's Washington Post, Tim Craig has an excellent article on the kickoff to the 2007 election season in Virginia. According to Craig, now that the legislative session is over, "Virginia Republicans and Democrats have started slugging it out for control of the General Assembly." Craig writes that "Fairfax County could determine the outcome," and cites analysts who believe it will be a "nasty, expensive campaign." Craig continues:
The hardest-fought contests could be in Fairfax, where three incumbent Republican state senators are gearing up for what could be the fight of their careers.Democrats are targeting Republican Sens. Ken Cuccinelli II, Jeannemarie Devolites Davis and James K. "Jay" O'Brien Jr., who represent Fairfax districts where a majority of voters chose Kaine in 2005 and U.S. Sen. James Webb (D-Va.) last year.
The outcome of those races Nov. 6 could shape state policy and politics for more than a decade because this will be the last state Senate campaign before congressional and legislative redistricting in 2011.
If Republicans keep control of the House and Senate and win back the governor's mansion in 2009, the party will be able to draw the legislative and congressional district boundaries in a way that helps ensure that GOP incumbents dominate for the next decade.
To stop that from occurring, Kaine is teaming with other party leaders to pour at least $1 million into this fall's races.
The bottom line is that the stakes in Virginia this year are high, even if few people are currently paying attention and even if turnout this November is low. Here are two possible scenarios to illustrate the stakes:
1) Conservative Republicans take control of the State Senate and proceed to block Tim Kaine's agenda while passing bills restricting abortion. Republicans control Congressional redistricting in 2011, enabling them "to draw the legislative and congressional district boundaries in a way that helps ensure that GOP incumbents dominate for the next decade." Not a pleasant prospect.
2) Democrats take back the State Senate and make significant gains in the House of Delegates, allowing for major steps forward in the next 2 years on education, health care, the environment and other issues. Democrats have a major say in 2011 Congressional redistricting, opening the door to gains of several seats in the House of Representatives during the next decade, as Virginia trends away from the "red," towards "purple" and ultimately "blue."
Which scenario do you prefer, and how hard are you willing to fight to ensure that your preferred scenario comes to fruition? Your decision, and the decision of thousands like you, will largely deterimne the outcome of low-turnout, off-off-year elections that depend heavily on the grassroots. We've also got the partisan blogs and "netroots" playing a role, including working to raise money for General Assembly candidates.
How will this all play out? Will Democrats or Republicans be more fired up this year? Will a strategy of running against "generic Republican" work for Democrats, or will it have "limited success" as it did for Gov. George Allen back in 1995 (on that subject, see the excellent Ben Tribbett quote in the article). We'll soon find out which party "base" is more energized - and which party is better prepared for "trench warfare" - this year, first on June 12 with party primaries, and then on November 6 in the General Election. Let the "battle royal" begin, and may the best team (translation: the Democrats) win!
I'm going to work really hard for my current Dem delegate
Off to church to pray for the heathen . . .LOL
The Passover story resonates across many faiths and cultural backgrounds because it stands for freedom. The freedom to think, to speak, to be educated.
The current majority in the Virginia Assembly has tendencies to define freedom on its own terms. Here's a story out of Afghanistan this morning that makes my point indirectly:
Sher Ahmad Haidar
GHAZNI CITY, Apr 5
(Pajhwok Afghan News)Hundreds of elders in Andar district of the southern Ghazni province gathered to defy the Taliban threats of stopping people from sending their children to schools. The meeting was held on Thursday, during which the elders announced their support for opening of schools in the district. Taliban, in the lawless Anadar district, had warned people against sending their children to schools a few days back.
Andar chief Abdul Rahim Desiwal told Pajhwok around 600 elders and influential attended the gathering. The participants unanimously voiced support for opening of schools and sending of children to educational institutions, said the district chief. An elder Anayatullah said Taliban should not create hindrances in the way of education. His call to the Taliban was joined by a teacher Juma Khan, who said seeking of knowledge is compulsory in Islam.***
Earlier, Taliban had said they did not agree with the curriculum introduced by the government and wanted to teach their own curriculum at the schools.
In one other area I know of, a similar meeting produced a resolution by the elders that females should be schooled at the same time. That local school, in defiance of the Taliban, has 3,000 students attending K-12. (I know some Americans who are helping personally finance that school.)
I want a General Assembly that tolerates differences, and that seeks to build a government whose foundation is the universal Golden Rule, and not a particular political or religious philosophy. I can cite many instances in which the current Assembly has violated the Golden Rule, a moral principle that is found in religions and cultures all over the world, ancient and modern.
Katherine B. Waddell, 68th District