We are rapidly approaching the November 8th election that will set the course of Virginia's future for years to come. For us, the choice could not be clearer.
We are rapidly approaching the November 8th election that will set the course of Virginia's future for years to come. For us, the choice could not be clearer.
However, as a student of political history and trends, I thought it would be interesting to look at what we can learn from the past and what it may tell us about this election. Many of these national examples are due to unique circumstances or political trends but may give some insight into Virginia in 2005.
As a starting point, states tend to develop patterns of party control. If you consider 1969 (the election of the state's first Republican Governor, Linwood Holton - father-in law of Tim Kaine.) as the beginning of modern Virginia political history, our state has developed such a pattern. Starting in 1969, we had three Republican Governors (Holton, Godwin, Dalton), followed by three Democrats (Robb, Baliles, Wilder), then two Republicans (Allen, Gilmore), to our current Governor, Mark Warner. The reason for this pattern varies. Whatever the reason, this looks good for Tim Kaine.
The shortening of the pattern from 12 to 8 could be indicative of a political system that is becoming more competitive. If you track North Carolina and Tennessee from the advent of the modern Republican Party, their pattern has been similar to ours. In a more established two party system in Pennsylvania, neither party has won three consecutive terms since World War II.
There are a few examples where one party dominates the Governor's office. For example, the current Governor of Georgia is the first Republican since Reconstruction (although some may contend the Democratic credentials of some of the state's Democratic Governors might be questionable (Zell Miller was a Governor of Georgia. Republican Governors in West Virginia, Kentucky or Maryland are rare. (Arch Moore was the last Republican Governor of West Virginia; Ernie Fletcher is only the second Republican Governor in the history of Kentucky; Robert Erlich is the first Republican Governor of Maryland since Spiro Agnew.)
At the same time, there are examples where a state goes one way in national elections and the opposite at the state level. Who would suspect that Massachusetts or New York, both solidly Democratic at the national level would have both had Republican Governors for over 10 years each? Both of these appear to have more to do with local issue and trends rather than anything other factor. On the other side, how could one explain a Democratic Governor in states like Montana or Wyoming?
This year we also have an independent candidate. In recent history, such candidates have not done well. Ross Potts in no Angus King (I, Maine) or Jesse Ventura (I, Minnesota).
In one way since we are the only state where the Governor cannot succeed himself, our circumstances are a bit different. (The last state before Virginia was Kentucky who allowed the Governor to succeed himself 5 years ago.) This places pressure on both parties to have a strong bench of particular candidates to run for Governor. This has either hurt or helped both parties in recent elections. This remnant of the Byrd years cries out for change to bring Virginia into line with the rest of the country.
Our odd year following a Presidential election again provides for an interesting point of comparison and projection. Again, if we start in 1969, twice (1969/1973) the state has gone with the same party as the one in power nationally. However, six times (1977, 1981, 1985, 1989, 1993, 1997, 2001) in the year after the national election, Virginia has chosen a Governor of the opposite party. As we all know, Virginia has voted for the Republican candidate for President in all of those elections. The only other state with a similar election schedule is New Jersey, which has been more historically Democratic. This is another historical trend that is a positive for Tim Kaine.
As this election has developed the question for Virginia voters has to do with the Warner legacy and whether we should return to the Republican approach to government. History supports our case. Let's go out and make it happen.