This morning, I attended the regularly scheduled monthly membership meeting of the Northern Virginia Democratic Business Council (NVDBC) at the Fairview Park Marriott in Falls Church. The guest speaker today was Steve Jarding, former Webb for Senate senior strategist and current Chief of Staff for Senator Tim Johnson. The title of Steve's talk was "Slaying Big Red Giants - Is Virginia Really Purple?" Let's just say for now that you don't usually see standing ovations for speakers at these types of gatherings, but Steve's was well deserved! (note: next month's meeting is on May 4 and will feature Gov. Kaine - check it out!)This morning's meeting was crowded with people, including many politicos - Sen. Mark Herring, Del. Mark Sickles, Arlington Commissioner of Revenue Ingrid Morroy, Fairfax School Board member Cathy Belter, Chap Petersen, Janet Oleszek, Margi Vanderhye, George Barker, Carlos del Toro, Bruce Roemmelt, Rex Simmons, and former Congressional candidate Judy Feder. I hope I didn't miss anybody, and I apologize if I did.
Anyway, on to highlights of Steve Jarding's superb speech. I didn't videotape it, but if you want an idea of Steve's speaking style, click here. Thats' about how Steve sounded today.
First, Steve talked about how important it was for Democrats to compete for rural votes ("If we don't broaden our base, we're not gonna win"). Why don't Democrats do well in rural Virginia? In part, because those voters thing that the Democratic Party has left them. We have to go there and make our case. The swing voters is NOT in the suburbs, they are in rural areas. These are the people who believed Ronald Reagan when he said that Democrats didn't stand up for "people like you" anymore. Now, these people are "mad at the Republicans bu they don't trust the Democrats" either.
Steve talked about the Mark Warner campaign, and how they worked to "reach beyond the base." On cultural issues like guns, bluegrass music and NASCAR, Warner made it clear that he was - or at least could be - on their side. He sponsored a NASCAR and had a bluegrass song played at every race. Half the crowd had Mark Warner stickers, and people wouldn't take Earley stickers. The Warner team talked to people, listened to their concerns, asked them what they cared about. Surprisingly, a lot of people were voting for Warner because of his sponsorship of NASCAR. NASCAR served as a cultural connection to people "where they live." Steve and Mudcat Saunders wrote a book about all this, Foxes in the Henhouse, that was Simon and Schuster's #1 political book last year.
Steve argued that Democrats make a huge mistake when they write off the South. For instance, when John Kerry in February 2004 asked, "why would a Democrat go South," the answer should have been, "maybe because you want to be PRESIDENT!" Essentially, Kerry had written off 27 staes with 227 Electoral Votes and 120 million people. As a Virginian, Steve Jarding's response as "to hell with you!" This is not just a political argument, "it's a moral argument." There are millions of poor people in the South who need health care, education, etc. Republicans haven't helped these people out, Democrats "took a walk," and "it's wrong to do that." We can NOT write off the South, where 31% (and increasing fast) of Americans live. It's politically short-sighted and morally wrong.
Another thing that Democrats should never do, according to Steve Jarding, is concede "family values" to the Republicans. The fact is that abortion and gay rights are important issues, but they are NOT what's tearing families apart in America today. What are REAL family values issues? Poverty, health care, wages going down, having to work two jobs to make ends meet. A man and a woman are not going to "split up because two gay guys got hitched in Massachusetts!" (here, Steve was yelling in full-scale preacher mode, apparently flashing back to his seminary days) Republicans do NOT have the right to take after God's children. The Book of Matthew says that we should feed the hungry and clothe the naked. We should never conced family values to Republicans. Steve said he would debate them on this and beat them every time, not because he's a great debater, but because he's got the facts and the moral arguments on his side.
We also can not concded fiscal conservatism to the Republicans. The fact is that the average annual budget deficit under Republican Presidents since 1945 (pre-Bush) was $132 billion. The average annual budget deficit under Democratic Presidents since 1945 (pre-Bush) was $30 billion. Republicans are "the most irresponsible party" on fiscal matters. Don't conced that issue, because "they haven't earned it!"
On defense and patriotism, Republicans say that if you question the President, you're not patriotic. Well, shame on them. In fact, we OWE them an opposition voice that asks the right questions like "where are the WMD?" We owe it to our soldiers to make sure they have the equipment they need to protect themselves. The bottom line is that we should never send men and women into combat without the proper equipmemt. "Don't you dare call me unpatriotic when I point that out." This Administration has cut pay for soldiers, lied to them. "We deserve better."
The 2006 election was a referendum on the Republican Party. People decided it was time for a change. However, here's a caution for the Democrats - "if all you want to do is bash Bush, we're not leading." There are too many people hurting out there for us not to stand for something. The fact is that Republicans have said for years that government is the problem, not the solution. Well, that's not true. John F. Kennedy asked Americans to sacrifice, to ask not what your country can do for you but what you can do for your country. JFK understood the role of representative Democracy, and back in 1960, 75% of Americans said that government was a good thing.
The legacy of Ronald Reagan is that "you get what you pay for" from constant government bashing and cynicism. If Democrats today want to recapture the spirit of JFK, RFK, and MLK, we have to lead, take risks, not just bash Republicans. If we don't do that, we might have 8 more years of Republicans. Do NOT be complacent. You have to lead, not just try to get elected. It's not about you, it's about helping make our country a better place.
After Steve's speech, he took questions from the audience. Steve was asked at what point he thought Jim Webb had a chance to win, and he answered, "election night." (laughter) Seriously, though, Steve told the story about how he had met Jim Webb (at the Fish Market in Old Town Alexandria) and decided he would be a great candidate. Bob Kerrey also had talked to Jarding and told him that Webb should be a US Senator. However, when Webb asked Jarding what his chances were, Jarding said "not so good," maybe 15%. Webb's response, "so, I've got a chance!" (I've also heard that Webb said, "I'll take those odds!"). As it turned out, we did a lot of things right, and Allen did some things wrong. For instance, 10 days out from the election, Allen ran out of money. After "Macaca" and the debates in early September, Webb caught fire. But it still came down to the wire.
On 2008, Steve said he didn't know who the leader is. "I really hate the system we have" - both the money driving it and the front-loaded nature of the primaries. "I want to win, but I also want a lively debate." Now, Warner's out, Bayh's out, Vilsack's out. Steve's fear is that on July 15, when the second quarter fundraising reports come out, we'll have winnowed the field to just 2 or 3 candidates, and that could be disastrous.
What makes a candidate successful? A lot of it is authenticity. Steve says that he's ridden a lot of great horses who had authenticity. You look them in the eye, they are real. You need to believe that government can do great things, that what we do really matters.
Finally, Steve said that the netroots is "one of the most positive forces in American politics" today. According to Steve, "the netroots has opened the door to millions of people" who previously didn't have a voice in politics. It's "such a wonderful movement in politics...an avenue to tens of millions of Americans." Jim Webb was the "first netroots Senator." There will be a netroots President.
Also Tester may have gotten the attention of the netroots before Webb did in the last cycle. Again, the establishment hated him until he steamrolled in the primary.
One thing Lowell didn't mention was Steve's serious concern that we will have winowed our candidates for President to two by July of 2007, due to the next money primary on June 30 - and selected our nominee by the end of the first week of February in 2008, due to so many states jumping up their primary dates.
He went out of his way to say that he wasn't dissing our current crop of candidates, but, in his view, Hillary and Obama are likely to get very cautious very soon if the other candidates can't keep up financially. Moreover, with fewer candidates left in the few debates, they will not be properly tested in preparation to take on the eventual GOP nominee. A nine-month general campaign leaves alot of time to suffer if the nominee we selected at superspeed turns out to have some serious deficiency.
I think most Dems would agree that we would like an opt-out provision we can use in August if we select someone in February whom we later realize can't win. There should be enough votes set aside, without commitment, so our party could change course before it's too late. Unfortunately, it doesn't work that way, so let's hope we get it right the first time.
Hillary, Obama, Edwards, Richardson, Dodd and Biden are the top tier candidates by ability. Of these, the most inspiring is clearly Obama and the one best prepared to be President is Richardson. Obama has a quality that lifts people up and engages them. For a leader to be effective he needs the public to help him. If Obama can sufficiently address the experience issue by reminding people of his judgment on the war, making good campaign judgments, highlighting his work in the Illinois legislature, and getting enough experts to endorse him, he could win this thing by a big margin. If not, Richardson could surprise folks due to his dynamic governorship and previous wide-ranging experience. That is, if Richardson can raise enough money to still be around after the fourth of July.
Of course, as Steve also noted, whichever candidate gets the nod, has to stand up and defend him or herself when personally attacked by the other side. Character attacks not reacted to decisively are believed true and often lead to defeat.
Hopefully, Steve's concern that our nominee will not be tested enough in the primary process on this issue and others won't come back to bite us.