The Washington Post poll released today on the Virginia governor's race appears on the surface to be decent news for Jerry Kilgore, who maintains a narrow, inside-the-margin-of-error (45%-41%) lead among registered voters. Look closer, however, and a few key warning sign jumps out at you if you're Jerry "The Duck" Kilgore or Scott "Smear the War Hero Max Cleland" Howell: 1) Virginians are happy the way things are going in this state after 4 years of Mark Warner-Tim Kaine, saying by a 65%-31% margin that the state is on the RIGHT TRACK. Can we say "4 more years!?!?"
2) Governor Warner, who is working hard for Tim Kaine's election, is EASILY the most popular politician in the state (69%-23%). Can we say Warner-Kaine?
3) George W. Bush, who has endorsed and raised money for Jerry Kilgore, is NOT popular in Virginia (47%-51%). Also, by a 28%-45% margin, Virginians say that a Bush endoresment of Kilgore would make them LESS LIKELY to vote for Jerry. Can we say Bush-Kilgore? Yeah, I thought so: Bush-Kilgore, Bush-Kilgore, Bush-Kilgore! Heh.
4) Virginians strongly approve (62%-28%) of the historic Warner-Kaine state budget reform package passed last year. Kilgore, of course, opposed this bill and continues to criticize Warner-Kaine for pushing it in the first place (and restoring our state's AAA bond rating in the process).
5) There is no single key issue this year, like Jim Gilmore's (in)famous "No Car Tax!" However, education (21%) and taxes (21%) are definitely tied for #1, with budget (13%), and job creation (13%) tied for #3. If this election's about education, Tim Kaine is the clear winner. If it's about taxes, the budget, and job creation, all Virginians need to do is look back at the past four years of Warner-Kaine. It's a tossup at best for Kilgore, however, if you consider those last three issues together.
6) The "social issues" that Jerry Kilgore and Scott Howell love so much -- abortion (7%), reducing gang violence (7%), immigration (6%) -- are not high priority to many Virginians. Also, I didn't even see two of Jerry Kilgore's favorite issues -- guns and the death penalty -- on the list at all.
7) To the extent that Virginians DO care about abortion, 55% favor keeping it legal, while 43% favor making it illegal. Only 15% favor making it illegal in most cases, which is the Kilgore-Bolling-McDonnell viewpoint, as far as I can tell.
8) Perhaps the most important finding of all: people don't know much of anything about Tim Kaine and Jerry Kilgore. Only 7%, for instance, know "a lot" about Tim Kaine, and just 8% about Jerry Kilgore. A whopping 55% know "little" or "nothing at all" about Tim Kaine. This has great upside potential for Tim Kaine: as people start learning more about Tim and how integral he was the past four years to the Warner-Kaine success story, this whole race could change dramatically. Also, as people learn more about Kilgore's "questionable" ethics and behavior -- eavesdropping, etc. -- it is likely that his support will fall. This comes down to TV advertising and debates, and those are still largely to come.
The bottom line here is that the Washington Post poll shows a race within the margin of error, with the vast majority of Virginians not knowing "a lot" about the candidates. However, Mark Warner is a huge plus for Tim Kaine, while George Bush is a net negative for Jerry Kilgore. Meanwhile, the first televised debate is set for this Tuesday, with TV advertising to crank up in coming weeks. This should get very interesting, but the way it looks now, this is a highly winnable race for Tim Kaine -- -- especially with people like Wesley Clark coming to Virginia in October to campaign for him. Stay tuned!