You know those Rasmussen polls are nothing but crap.  And the only reason why Edwards was surging is because for the first time in ages, he was in the press.  Unfortunately for him, it wont last long.

but still national polls are much harder to get a read on than statewide. it is just so hard statistically to get a true read on the mood of people.

i would somewhat trust a statewide poll but not so much a nationwide poll.

that being said. i think edwards will actually get the nomination. even with vilsaks endorsement of HRC in IA. with the season being this early everything is running off of name rec and time in the news at this point. HRC has been in the news more than any of the candidates period. Obamas celebrity rock star act has gotten him plenty of  name rec and press. that is the reason for his showings in the polls lately. and now that is wearing thin. he inexperience is gonna cost him now that the scrutiny is heightened.

HRC will have her loyal fans and voters. But most dems want to WIN. they know that HRC will have to run the tired old 17 or 18 state strategy that has been the boodoggle to end all boondoggles. They know that HRC will DEFINITELY cost us both houses of Congress if she is at the top of the ticket.

my money is on Edwards....

You can call Rasmussen crap or you can call it credible.  All I can say is that they were VERY close on the Webb-Allen race.  They said it was either tied or Webb barely ahead.  And they were the closest of the major pollers in 2004.  So I trust them on National Pollings.

46% doesn't leave much room for error.  I'm truly an "anybody but Hillary" kind of guy.  Though I prefer Edwards and Richardson, I'd vote Obama to prevent Hillary from getting the nomination (if that's what it comes down to).

This should not be a horse race so I am not that interested in the shifting numbers.  It seems like common sense to me anyway that you aren't going to get real accurate numbers now.  People in some areas are better informed, depending on the primary schedule.  That is just one variable.

I believe it would be a lot better for this process if we allowed this thing to play out and see what happens.  I guess I am still an idealist.

I do not mean just sit and watch.  '07 elections are certainly vital, but choosing the next POTUS is not beanbag.

Wednesday night, 7pm at Whitlow's, low dollar fundraiser for Barack.  He won't be there, but a lot of rowdy grassroots go getters will.

This poll doesn't surprise me.  Polls shift and they will again, and we can argue about the relative merit of a poll, but these guys have called it pretty close before. 

I think we saw a crack in Obama's armor when the candidate were pitching to the unions there.  People I talked to there told me Obama underperformed there.  Vegas is a real union town, and Hillary did well, as did Edward who came out with probably the most comprehensive health care plan.  And right here is where I think Obama shows his inexperience.  I don't think he or his staff had the Vegas Union deal grokked very well, and according to my union people there, his speech didn't have the substance of Hillary or Edwards.  They were very impressed when Hillary started talking about busing tables when she was in college and that sort of personal, "I've been there, too" story works with unions.  We union members want our candidates to really know what it means to have union protection, and to know what it means when you don't have that same protection.

I don't know what Obama's work experience is, and I've been very impressed by his speaking and his general rock star qualities but those alone aren't enough to carry him to the nomination.  I'd like to hear more substance, and so far I'm not hearing it from his supporters.  They'll need to get that glazed look out of their eyes soon and start talking about what he can actually do, not how mean Hillary is. Portraying Hillary as the bitch will eventually backfire and bring more women to her.  Strong women, who are good at their jobs, have been portrayed, as hard, inflexible bitches ever since they started kicking in glass ceilings.  This won't work.  Women will turn against this sort of talk.  I know.  My wife has fifty pairs of shoes she can't wear for all the glass splinters, and she hates the way way Hillary is being portrayed.

I also think the 1984 commercial did nothing to improve Obama's situation and there might be a backlash.  Now the creator of the ad has been connected to Obama, even though he was fired--the connection is established, and that's a minus  for Obama, anyway you look at it. The best things Obama's supporters could do right now is get off the attack and show their man has some big ideas to go with his charisma. 

I remain undecided, but Senator Obama's effort with the unions in Vegas, I found disappointing. 

Nick

He needs to start flushing out some policy

He can only ride the charisima wave for so long

to him.  I think Obama's wonderful in many ways, but I want to know more.  Let's face it, Obama's major weakness is that we don't really know who he is very well.  Yet so far, I don't feel like he's really started to clear up where he stands on the major issues du jour.  I keep watching his speeches, waiting for him to turn his soaring "audacity of hope" vision into a clarion call for American renewal in a variety of areas, but I still haven't heard it.  Have I simply missed something that's there, or is it simply not there?

but I'm hoping for a Clark/Warner ticket.  I don't have much faith in the winnability of any of the others, never mind their likeability.

Everyone probably thinks I am not making any sense when I say I think Al Gore and Fred Thompson are going to be the nominees in 2008.

And rightfully so, they both aren't declared candidates. But as undeclared candidates they have moved up quite significantly in the past few weeks.

Gore for his celebrity, and Thompson for his as well.

Both parties clearly have no true frontrunner. Hillary is leading in most polls but I can't find a single person to admit they actually support Hillary.

That is unless, they actually work for her and have to say they support her.

I am inclined to support Obama because he's the only declared candidate that had it right about Iraq from the start but still hoping that Gore or Clark jump in.

And why, I also am concerned with the lack of experience Obama has to be President. May I support him if my favorites don't enter, yes. But do I have the same concerns as many do about Obama's candidacy, yes.

If you look at the USAToday poll also released yesterday it showed Edwards with a 4 point gain in the poll. I think Edwards will continue to have a few more points in the next several polls.

But, I don't think he will overtake Hillary. But, I don't think Hillary can run away with this either. So, we have no clear leader.

What's most interesting where Gore is polled nationally he's doing better than Edwards.

Where Fred Thompson is polled nationally he's going better than Mitt Romney.

Gore could win the nomination should he decide to run, and I predict that he will enter this race later this year.

Fred Thompson, I think he's going to run the call for a GOP platform candidate is going to force him to run in '08. I expect more buzz from him in the next several weeks.

Here's the DEM poll from USAToday:

http://www.usatoday....

So no more calling out Clark now?
Gore has said it 1,000 times , he isn't running. Thompson is fascinating to GOPers right now, for many reasons. He was a seemingly effective Senator, and he's a star. Once he enters the race, and campaigns pull out the opposition research, not to mention he actually has to TAKE a policy stance, he'll be doomed.