The "transportation plan" presented by the House Republicans presents Gov. Kaine and the Democratic Party of Virginia with a real gut check on their political principles. The plan lacks any sense of progressivity, policy rationality, and was crafted via a Republican game of Twister trying solve the political problems of a handful of endangered suburban Republicans while holding true to their anti-government ideology - not a sincere desire to solve the transportation needs of our Commonwealth.
To understand this, one must first understand the magnitude of the problem.
Road planning, maintenance, and improvements are mostly funded through the Transportation Trust Fund which is funded by a pennies-per-gallon gas tax and a -+% sales tax. These taxes were last adjusted in 1986 in a special session called by Democratic Gov. Gerald Baililes. Since then, labor, materials, land costs, and VDOT salaries are up (people make more today than in 1986), while gas tax revenues have remained flat - cars get more miles per gallon and with gas prices up people pay fewer pennies per mile.
There have been numerous studies seeing the funding crisis coming since the early 90's, but no one has garned the political will to solve the problem. In 2003, Gov. Warner commissioned a long-term study. The final study, VTRANS 2025, found that Virginia has $108 BILLION of transportation needs over the next 20 years that are not covered by existing revenues - that's billion (about 1/3rd the cost of the Iraq War as of 1/06 per the CBO). Warner tried in 2003, but the rural Republicans wouldn't vote for the General fund and transportation.
The solution is obvious - increase gas taxes or apply the sales tax to gas. One-third of gas taxes are paid by non-Virginians and at least through a sales tax it would be levied as a percentage and if gas prices went up, revenue would also go up. However, given that Grover Norquist and the ATR have a strangle hold on the current RPV, the chances of Albo, Devolites-Davis, Cuccinelli, O'Brien, and the balance of the House Republican Caucus having political epiphanies are about as good George Bush voluntarily pulling us out of Iraq absent a visit from the Allmighty.
So what have we been given? The current proposal offers to raise revenue primarily - (a) by financing $2.5 billion of statewide bonds through $300 million per year of General Fund money, (b) $400 million per year +/- through a local taxes - mainly a commercial property tax, and (c) $80-$100 million per year through abuser fees on certain drivers - people with high point balances who are convicted of certain offenses (e.g. driving on a suspended license (suspended because you didn't have the money to pay your fines)).
This plan is not progressive. The General Fund pays for essential and social safety net programs - prisons, schools, colleges, Medicaid, mental health and the like. Just last week, the Washington Post ran a story that the General Assembly refused to appropriate merely $17 million to give 10,000 children childcare and three days ago noted that community college tuitions are going way up. Also, as soon as revenues go down, the $250 million will be the first money cut - the social safety next second.
Commercial property taxes are also unfair because they disproportionately affect renters - if you own your own home or condo, your housing payment won't go up $360-$850/yr., but if you rent, you're looking at a big increase (rent's a smaller than mortgage payments). Given that renters have the lowest incomes and tend to use roads the least, making them pay more of their already limited income is highly regressive. Additionally, commercial landlords tend to pass real estate taxes right through to tenants so this will affect the smallest and newest businesses the most harshly - not progressive either.
The abuser fees are flat "fees" (assuming a Court doesn't call them unconstitutional ex post facto criminal fines) - so the more poor you are, the more money it is to you. Also, given that Driving on a Suspended License is one of the trigger offenses and many such offenders are the poor who cannot afford to pay their fines, abuser fees will put the poor in a deeper hole (after they've been assessed $160 for the court appointed attorney who just pleaded them guilty to get back to his or her paying cases).
The statewide bond component is simply a way of making a small amount of money look big by borrowing money and passing the buck to our kids. This money has to be repaid over 20 years so in effect, it is this generation forcing future generations to pay for today's problems. It also conveniently puts future General Assemblies in fiscal handcuffs - classic Republican budgeting strategy. So far, we have been able to avoid this in Virginia because of our tradition of pay as you go, but no longer.
The entire theme of this plan is to continue to shift more of government funding to the lower rungs of society. A trend that started with lotteries, escalating college tuitions, and increasing "fees" for fundamental government services like simply getting your driver's license. It is a philosophy premised upon a hatred of government and as Jim Webb might say a bias against the government actually leveling the playing field by inflicting some economic fairness.
In fact, the primary agenda of this "transportation plan" is to give Dave Albo, Tom Rust, Jeannemarie Devolites-Davis, Jay O'Brien, Ken Cucinelli, and some tidewater Republicans the ability to say "they did something" so they can have some electoral breathing room until redistricting until the political environment swings back around to the RPV's liking.
In fact, the Democrats have made statements to the press about solving this problem with Speaker Howell as if these people are actually serious about solving our problems. Unlike previous sessions, Speaker Howell has worked the media and editorial boards masterfully without emphasizing his ultimate agenda. And, if the Governor chooses to tinker with the Republican Plan and simply try to put some mustard on the ideological pretzel of what they have designed, it's time to start getting ready for ten more years of Republican control of our legislature.
Alternatively, we are currently in an environment of intense hostility and suspicion of the Republican Party's motives on the very eve of our last chance to capture the Virginia Senate before the next redistricting. Governor Kaine should seize on this opportunity. If he proposes amendments that do anything short of completely gut this "plan," the Democratic Party will lose voters from Day One because the debate will be so muddy and unintelligible as Sen. Cuccinelli and Sen. O'Brien dance upon various line items they "don't like."
To have an workable issue for November, Virginia's voters need to be faced with a clear choice - a choice that exposes the political, ideological, and economic selfishness of the Republican Plan by juxtaposing it against a responsible, traditional, "good government" solution that actually funds more than about 20% of the problem with real permanent money, that fairly spreads the Commonwealth's burdens upon those who can afford to pay without gimmicks. If Speaker Howell and the tribe of ideologues in the House choose to reject those kind of amendments, Governor Kaine should simply take it to the voters in November where Delegate Albo, Sen. Devolites-Davis, Sen. O'Brien, and Sen. Cuccinelli may finally understand what their constituents want, and then the People will truly have their say.
Regaining control of the Senate and solving our most pressing problem in 2008 will leave the Governor with a truly memorable legacy. The candidates are ready, the grassroots are primed, and all are ready for battle. Governor Kaine, your troops are hopeful that you will lead them to a meaningful, permanent long-term solution now or together we will bring a home solution to the RPV come November. Good luck.
The "plan" is hopelessly inadequate and would set dangerous precedents. Do not get sidetracked, my fellow Virginians, by republican shell game arguments about this or that feature of revenue "enhancements. The silly thing is useless, misleading, and invidious in its design. Good transportation is a primary obligation of any government from time immemorial; it deserves an adequate, reliable source of continuous funding.
Trying to shift the burden to localities to form "regional" tax districts is a horrible precedent--- it is exactly what Jerry Kilgore offered in his failed run for Governor--- so now we are to have it crammed down our throats after the voters rejected such balkanization of the mighty Virginia Commonwealth in the last gubernatorial election. If such a program were ever installed, the rest of the Commonwealth would suddenly find that such regional areas like Northern Virginia would stop sending so much of their tax money to Richmond, and the rest of the state would discover they have no money for schools (since NoVa taxes have actually funded education in poorer areas of the state). That's why Roanoke told Kaine they didn't like the republican plan.
So it doesn't sound like much money out of the general fund, at least right now--- but this, too, is a terrible idea and sets a terrible precedent. Credit card government is a specialty of the benighted republican party, which gaily beebops along, sending the bills for their feckless spending to their children to pay off. The republican "plan" is just another form of Class Warfare in that it typically forces poorer groups to pay for government. What happens in a downturn when there is NO surplus? What gets slashed? What happens if we can't pay our bills? What happens when interest rates rise (as they inevitably will, given our parlous situation on a national basis with mounting federal debts, rising private debt, and the continued decline of the value of the dollar?
The Governor should either veto the bill outright or, if for political reasons, decides he must try to "work with it," then I sincerely hope Mr. Kaine amends the bill in such a way that the republicans cannot live with it--- and those Northern Virginia republicans who smirkingly voted for it are themselves put in a thorny bind.
I just received my copy of Jeannemarie Devolites Davis' "dispatch", which she uses to describe her adventures in Richmond among other things. It was one of those other things, results from her survey from a previous dispatch, that caught my eye.
Turns out that of the 1100 responses, many supported the notion of some sort of tax increase to address the traffic problems. In order of support, here were the options for tax increases:
Cigarette Tax: 81%
Hotel/Motel: 66%
Auto Registration(fee): 62%
Gas: 50%
Sales: 39%
Real Estate Transfer: 35%
Meals: 35%
Income: 23%
Interesting that a huge majority want the smokers to pay for our roads. And only half think that the users of the roads should actually pay for the roads they use? Talk about a disconnect.
Well, this isn't worth much analysis since the survey wasn't scientific and we don't have access to the internals, but it is an interesting insight into the NOVA outlook on the matter.