Gerry Connolly Event: Results and Observations

By: Lowell
Published On: 3/16/2007 11:30:20 PM

I just got back from Gerry Connolly's annual St. Patrick's Day party.  Since it's late, I'll go right to the results of Connolly's unscientific straw poll.  These are according to Gerry Connolly himself. [UPDATEAdditional numbers from a very reliable source.]

34th House of Delegates District
Margi Vanderhye: 19 votes
Rip Sullivan:  12 votes (Note: this is corrected from earlier)

Connolly comment: "Vanderhye won by a comfortable margin."

40th House of Delegates District
Rex Simmons: 19 votes
Morris Meyer: 6 votes

According to Connolly, Rex Simmons won easily, with Morris Meyer in the "single digits."


39th Senate District
George Barker: 51 votes
Greg Galligan: 5 votes

Connolly comments: Barker is a serious candidate focused on the issues.  Barker has a long resume ("down to here") and tremendous experience.  "Nothing negative about Greg Galligan," but Barker's extremely well qualified.

Democratic Presidential Primary
Hillary Clinton: 96 votes
John Edwards: 68 votes
Barack Obama: 63 votes
Bill Richardson:  29 votes
Chris Dodd: 7 votes
Joe Biden: 5 votes
Mike Gravel: 5 votes
Al Gore: 5 votes
Mark Warner: 4 votes

Other observations from the event:

*Jim Webb was greeted like a rock star at the scene of his first major victory (58%-42% over Harris Miller) last year. 

*Webb's baby, Georgia LeAnh, is REALLY cute! And I don't usually think babies are cute. Ha. 

*Webb spoke very positively about Connolly, noting that Fairfax County is the best managed county in the nation.  On the surface at least, it appears that whatever bad blood there might have been between Webb and Connolly is long gone.

*Webb promised to work hard to send more Democrats to Richmond to help "our great Governor."

*The crowd was reportedly 500+, even bigger than last year according to Gerry Connolly. (also amazing considering the awful weather tonight)

*Connolly announced that he's running for re-election, talking about his "record of accomplishment" and how Fairfax should "keep a good thing going."

*Connolly told a joke about how an Irishman proposes to a woman: "How would you like to be buried next to me Sainted Mother?"

*Connolly bragged about Fairfax County having the lowest crime rate in 32 years, the best school system, a AAA bond rating, a 50% decline in gangs over the past three (?) years, progress on affordable housing (1,300 units), the first "Cool County" in the the United States, preservation of 28,000 acres of land, the lowest tax rate in Fairfax County history, etc.

*Kate Wilder appears flattered by the "draft," although still has not decided whether or not she will run.  Let's keep encouraging her! :)

*Other candidates gave short speeches while most people were talking and enjoying the food and beer.  Rip Sullivan said an Irish prayer and talked about how it's "springtime in the 34th district;" Margi Vanderhye said she'd bring "realistic, honest solutions" to Richmond and criticized the Republicans as an "ideological party captured by the right;" Morris Meyer said he would "take the fight" to the Republicans; Rex Simmons said that he will "work with Tim Kaine to do what's right for Virginia;" George Barker talked about his "record of getting things done" and declared "I will defeat Jay O'Brien;" Greg Galligan went after O'Brien for "shortchanging our schools" and said he would fight for senior citizens, affordable health care, smart development, education funding, and our "quality of life."


Comments



Hillary Robo-Calls (code - 3/16/2007 11:37:18 PM)
I heard that Hillary's campaign robo-called potential supporters to mobilize them tonight. Seems inappropriate in this situation, but also seems to have worked :)


Her supporters were out in force (Jambon - 3/16/2007 11:51:10 PM)
I had about four different people try and slap Hillary stickers on me. I guess I'll have to wear a bigger John Edwards button next time... 


Had I been there like I had planned... (SaveElmer - 3/17/2007 9:48:54 AM)
She would have had 97...

:-)



Another picture (Lowell - 3/16/2007 11:50:02 PM)


Anybody but Hillary (DanG - 3/16/2007 11:57:11 PM)
Ugh.  Please say Hillary won't win this thing.  I'm honest-to-God terrified that she can't win a GE.


Why so worried (Alice Marshall - 3/17/2007 11:01:01 AM)
Hilliary Clinton polls ahead of all her possible Republican contenders.

Personally I hope Gore will run, but I don't understand all the opposition to Hilliary.



She did in January (DanG - 3/17/2007 3:43:59 PM)
Recent polls show Rudy and McCain both beating her.


Don't forget (Glant - 3/17/2007 12:07:50 AM)
The high turn out is even more impressive when you remember how terrible the weather was.


As someone who's spent most of my life (Chris Guy - 3/17/2007 12:27:41 AM)
in the Braddock District, I wish Connolly would move on and make way for Sharon Bulova to take over as Chairwoman. She's been on the board for 20 years now, c'mon Gerry.


I had always heard the Irishman proposal (Andrea Chamblee - 3/17/2007 1:24:03 AM)
was "brace yourself, Bridgett!"
;-)
Oh, wait, you meant a proposal of marriage?


bulova (varealist - 3/17/2007 1:33:19 AM)
i like bulova, but she doesn't have the panasche to be chair. and i doubt she'd want it....you would think she'd have run by now if she had the fire. the vice chair thing is voted on by the board members themselves.


gerry, hello?????? (varealist - 3/17/2007 1:35:54 AM)
look closely at the connolly campaign sign behind jim webb. the web site address says 2003. helllooo?? If you're going to announce for re-election, then for goodness sakes, get a new sign. That's weak.


Bad Politics? (Josh - 3/17/2007 8:15:39 AM)
If you're looking for a reason why Galligan lost the strawpoll 91% to 9% (an 82% spread!!!), a perception of bad politics may have something to do with it.

I've stayed out of the primary race in the 39th, and I intend to, but a persistent claim of bad politics seems to have followed the Galligan campaign.  Somebody needs to get this out in the open.

I heard lots of complaints and rumors that the Galligan campaign had run a push poll against George Barker.  I didn't hear from anyone who actually got the push-poll calls, but apparently the gist had to do with Barker being somehow "too old" to do a good job.

This seems a huge mistake from the Galligan campaign, if true.  Considering that experience is one of Barker's key positives, and that the age of Democratic primary voters in Fairfax tends to skew upward, I got the feeling that the Galligan campaign had strongly turned off the early adopters in the room.

In light of Barker's 51 to 5 victory over Galligan in last night's straw poll, this may be the clearest indication on record that Fairfax voters don't like negative campaigning during primaries.  Democratic primary voters are very angry about this:  "No Democrats beating up other Democrats."  "We don't eat our own." 

I have great respect for both George Barker and Greg Galligan, and I hope that the remaining months of the campaign are conducted in a fashion that will best prepare the nominee to take back this critical seat from Republican Jay O'Brien.



Perhaps (pitin - 3/17/2007 11:18:54 AM)
the Push-poll is simply Ben Tribett and not actually the campaign.


It wasn't a push poll (Glant - 3/17/2007 12:29:17 PM)
Ben said that he volunteered to make calls for Greg.  I got one of the calls from Greg's campaign.  It wasn't a push-poll, just an appropriate "vote for Greg" call, clearly identifying itself as a call from Galligan.  When I said I supported Barker, the call ended.


HAHAHA (brimur - 3/17/2007 10:09:41 PM)
Anybody who believes that the Galligan campaign, or ANY state senate campaign is push-polling, needs a little more education about this level of campaign. NO ONE wastes their time "push-polling" on a local race. It's a ludicrous allegation. Some random Barker supporters have made a mountain out of a mole hill.

The real issue here is that those overzealous Barker supporters stand a serious chance of dividing the party by casting aspersions on Galligan (who has been very adamant about running a positive race) and all his young energetic volunteers- support Barker will need if he's the nominee. If this is them playing dirty politics and not just their political naivete showing, it's a real indication of the kind of desperation their feeling. (While the straw poll vote of paying voters was lopsided, the real voter contact race seems to be lopsided in the opposite direction) The underlying incident was Ben Tribbett going off of the volunteer script and that is all. Move on.



this is where you are making assumptions that are no longer valid (Used2Bneutral - 3/17/2007 10:35:37 PM)
In 2005 Chuck Caputo's campaign burned through about $350K. Chris Craddock did similar so the combined $17k per year job cost the voters (both sides combined) $700k...... this year I have been told by reliable sources that the numbers will be around $400k each....or $800k for the same race.

I live in Centreville, On Thursday afternoon I personally recieved a push poll from the Cuccinelli campaign.... it was about 25 questions and some of them VERY leading with totally un-acceptable assumptions in them.... the young guy who was asking the questions said he was located in New Jersey and he had NO idea about the significance of the questions or the answers and he was having difficulty understanding a lot of the answers he was getting. He did confirm that it was paid for by Cuccinelli at the end.



Cuccinelli? (brimur - 3/17/2007 10:49:41 PM)
Just because Cuccinelli is wasting money doesn't make it good strategy. To really do push-polling the cost is so prohibitive that you could much more safely do very effective mail. And as Josh mentioned, no one actually said they received these push poll calls- because I can personally guarantee you that they didn't happen.

This is, as I said, either naivete or very rash negativity on the part of a few overzealous Barker supporters. Barker is a good guy and I know that he wouldn't want to be spreading this negativity. But by spreading these disgusting and baseless allegations, his supporter are doing something that will really hurt whoever ends up being the candidate.

I have spoken to several volunteers for Galligan who are very upset with Barker for not coming out and stating clearly that he takes Galligan at his word when Galligan said that the campaign is totally positive and that his volunteer scripts don't even mention Barker. Barker can still salvage this situation. I want us to move beyond this so that whoever is the nominee, that person is in the best possible position to beat O'Brien.



My point was (Used2Bneutral - 3/18/2007 12:14:30 AM)
That you said that local Senate races won't spend the kind of money a push poll costs.... especially at this stage of the campaign..... well Ken just did.... now I also believe that what is being complained about here was probably just Ben's calls that were being interpreted as a push poll. But whether he did it as a "loose Cannon" on his own initiative or not, he identified himself from what has been said as being with Greg's campaign.

We really don't need to damage our own candidates with any negatives and generate the kind of BS that the other party picks up on and eventually hits the winner of the primary with this summer.(like happened to Webb with the cartoon of Miller). Running a primary campaign based on talking to the candidates qualifications and their stands on the issues and not throwing mud at the other guy is what makes sense.

I actually believe you and I are in violent agreement.. :)



Push-polls (brimur - 3/19/2007 10:19:39 AM)
I'm sorry if I wasn't clear. I didn't say anything about campaigns not spending "the kind of money" a push poll costs- I simply said they wouldn't spend their money ON a push-poll. There's no doubt that state legislative races can get expensive. The total in the 34th may be several million. But it doesn't mean any of it should be spent on push-polling.


Galligan Positive? Not! (Glant - 3/19/2007 6:05:05 AM)
Anyone who says Galligan has been running a positive campaign simply has not been paying attention.

It was Galligan who originally called for caucuses,then after suddenly changing his mind sat back and let his buddy Tribbet savage George for what was originally Greg's idea.

It was Galligan who sat back while his proxy attacked an entire Democratic Committee. 

And it was Galligan who, during Connolly's dinner on Friday, stood next to Ben as Ben described George as "old".

So what do we "move on" to?  The next vicious attack by Greg or his proxies?  Or do you finally listen to George who has limited his focus to O'Brien?



Wow (brimur - 3/19/2007 10:15:39 AM)
Guilt-by-association is a pretty weak attack. If you're going to attack candidates for being associated with or getting advice from Ben Tribbett you need to spread your attacks to about 4 other high profile NoVA candidates. You admitted yourself that you received a volunteer call that was no negative at all. So it's clear the negatives are NOT coming from the campaign. THE END.

P.s.- How is it ever negative to want optimal participation? We should have automatic primaries like almost every other state.



It is not guilt by association (Glant - 3/20/2007 2:51:53 PM)
when your buddies call other Democrats "racist" and you sit by and do nothing.  Especially when the candidate was at the same meeting.  Especially when the candidate says privately "I don't think it was racist" but refuses to say so publicly.

At that point the candidates silence becomes part of the dirty politics.

When you sit by and allow others to falsely attack your opponent, when you then comment on the issue without correcting the record, you become part of the problem.

Honesty is more than not telling a lie.  It is also not sitting back and allowing falsehoods to spread when you have the ability to correct them.  Standing up for principles like the truth is called "integrity."  It is a quality I value in my elected representatives and one I look for when I decide which candidates I will support.

Everything I have mentioned here I witnessed personally.  It is not something I heard or something that happened to a friend of a friend. 

PS -- I never said I wanted a caucus.  I just explained why a caucus had been originally planned.



Robo calls (not bruce springsteen - 3/17/2007 9:48:38 AM)
code says :

"I heard that Hillary's campaign robo-called potential supporters to mobilize them tonight. Seems inappropriate in this situation, but also seems to have worked :)"

Democrats win elections using the latest electronic tools at their disposal [witness RK and Senator Webb]. I don't consider it inappropriate to use to use available tools to accomplish objectives, so long as they are not illegal or patently offensive. Using a robocall to drive up attendance or to inform your support base is fine with me.

On the event itself, I was elated to see Senator Webb, his wife and new daughter attend. This guy is amazing.



robo calls are inappropriate (Alice Marshall - 3/17/2007 11:03:16 AM)
people don't like being called by a machine


You're saying nobody should ever use (Lowell - 3/17/2007 12:14:37 PM)
robocalls?  How about political ads on TV or radio, do people like them?  How about "negative campaigning," do people like that?  How about fundraising solicitations, do people like them? Are all of these "inappropriate," and if so, what would you suggest doing, banning them?


Another pic, courtesy of Hanh Deniston (Lowell - 3/18/2007 10:29:21 AM)

Dranesville Board of Supervisor Candidate John Foust speaks to Supervisor Penny Gross during Gerry Connolly's event.