The big political news from this weekend focused on Barack Obama's big annoucement speech in Springfield, IL which drew in the neighborhood of 15,000 in freezing cold temperatures. An impressive size by any standard. But perhaps more important to the Obama campaign is that he drew another 10,000 combined from three seperate stops in Iowa. It's considered the biggest kickoff in that state in the history of the Iowa Caucuses. Obama also picked up the endorsements of state Attorney General Tom Miller, State Treasurer Mike Fitzgerald, and possibly freshman Rep. Dave Loebsack (D-IA) who pulled one of the biggest upsets on election night last year by ousting Rep. Jim Leach (R-IA). On their own these endorsements don't carry too much weight. But they're a big deal because they could be seen as a snub of Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack.
But not everyone in Iowa is impressed.
A former Kerry precinct captain at the blog Bleeding Heartland says that, despite what the polls might say, Edwards and Vilsack should be considered the favorites in Iowa. He says Edwards would have won last time if he had the infrastructure in place. And, right now, a plurality of precinct captains are supporting Edwards. Both he and Vilsack will have a big edge in that respect.
Hillary Clinton's support, he argues, are from casual political observers who don't usually participate in caucuses. He also says that she's nobodys second or third choice, which is a big problem in a caucus. I think it also remains to be seen if she can effectively engage in the retail one-on-one politics that are a trademark of winning these early contests. Of course with so many states moving the dates of their primaries closer together, this fight for the nomination may well become more of a national race than in years past.
As for Obama, right now his campaign most resembles Howard Dean's from the '04 campaign with it's huge, raucous crowds made up largely of younger voters. But Obama should take note that it didn't translate to broad support on caucus night for the Dean campaign. Many of those large crowds in Iowa last weekend were made up of Obama's supporters who drove down from Illinois. Shipping people in from out of state won't influence them to vote a certain way. You need people that will convince their fellow Iowans to vote for their preferred candidate.
Dean learned the hard way that Rob Reiner, Martin Sheen, and some college kids from the Northeast aren't going to influence people in the Hawkeye State. And judging from the great work he's done since then with his '50-State Strategy', it looks like he has. Ironically, it's his failed presidential bid that may make Howard Dean a great DNC Chairman. (Anyone else remember those laughing idiots on the right who predicted the downfall of the Democratic Party in 2005 when Dean was appointed? Ha!) But, let's face it, their are some major differences between Obama and Dean too. And I think it's obvious that this election will be unlike any in American history.
The Vilsack campaign already has over 1,100 signed commitment cards - these are people who have in writing committed to participate in caucuses on behalf of Vilsack, and their names are publicly available on the website, and you can read it in
This apparently is a significantly higher number than anyone has had at this point in the past.
Vilsack also already has 7 field offices open in Iowa. No one else is yet close.
The next time I felt it again was at the Alexandria rally when Obama appeared to endorse Webb. He reminded me very much of the rebel that Kennedy was and as we all know Webb is also. Obama impressed me even more when it was 45 minutes after the rally had finished and every other candidate had left and Obama was still there signing autographs and shaking hands, much to the dismay of his handlers. Obama has that charisma and magic and until now I don't know why but I had not equated it to Kennedy, but in my mind and heart I guess I feel the same emotions for another political youngster like Jack back in the sixties.
OBTW, at the Connolly volunteer thank-you party I was really impressed when Webb stayed and shook hands and talked to ALL that waited to see him even though he had such pressing family issues then. It's the extra caring and the magic that makes these guys special. I'm not convinced Obama will win the nomination, but if he does, I BELIEVE he can win the election. Although, I will certainly vote for and work for whomever we put on the path to next Dem in the Whitehouse in '08.
There's already a buzz among activists that he is indifferent on these issues and just posturing. If Obama's major rival is Hillary, it makes no difference because she is perceived as pro-offshore outsourcing, pro-globalisation and in the pockets of corporations.
For my part, I am unexcited by either Obama or Hillary...