Clinton/Webb '08?
By: Josh
Published On: 2/9/2007 5:18:55 PM
Clinton/Webb '08? Across the country, it looks like the writing's on the wall.
Case in point, this article from Tennessee, "Clinton in, Obama out, enter Jim Webb". It lays out the game-plan clearly.
Here's the scenario: Hillary's a lock on both the nomination and the general. Obama's not needed on the Hillary ticket, because the African-American community will support Clinton by 98% anyway. Meanwhile, Webb's gravitas and new-found role as party superstar put him as the #1 seed for the #2 spot.
I can't argue with this reasoning. While overstated and potentially insulting to every Democrat running (especially Obama and the African American community), it's impossible, logically, not to see Hillary as the nation's strongest candidate for the White House in either party. Only Gore calls that into question.
What interests me is Webb's growing name recognition and leadership status. It's truly a meteoric rise.
Leaving aside the prospect of back to back to back Academy Award / Nobel Peace Prize / White House wins for Gore, what I find remarkable is the length and breadth of Webb's new-found stardom. The kind of writing now being posted in newspapers and op-eds across the country is doing the same work nationwide that Raising Kaine and the Draft Webb Movement did for Webb this time last year for his Senate Bid.
Therefore, watch carefully. Listen well for the name of the Democrat senator from Virginia, Jim Webb. I am almost ready to predict he will be Hillary's running mate. He is well-educated, with a law degree. He is a highly decorated Vietnam veteran, discharged with war wounds.
He is a former Republican who changed sides because, as secretary of the Navy under President Reagan, he refused to agree to reducing the size of the Navy.
Sen. Webb of Virginia, was chosen by the Democrats to respond on TV to President Bush's State of the Union Address. Webb wrote the response himself. He is a published writer of both fiction and non-fiction.
Sen. Jim Webb was born Feb. 9, 1946 in St. Joseph, Mo. His son is now serving with the military in Iraq.
Maybe Sen. Clinton would be wise to offer the vice-presidential nomination to Sen. Jim Webb. On the other hand, Webb just might have loftier goals in mind.
Should RK start another Draft movement? This would be the natural home, but I don't think we need to do it. Webb is being introduced bit by bit and his name recognition nationwide will likely soon eclipse every other Democrat except for Gore, Obama, Edwards and Clinton. I think that the times have changed so dramatically that the organic need for leadership will coalesce around Webb and propel him into a new residence at the Naval Observatory in 2 years time.
Webb is too strong a presence on the national stage not to be considered. Moreover, a successful tour as the #2 guy in Hillary's White House would make Webb a lock for 2016 and 2020.
If 16 years of control of the White House is of interest to Democrats, Clinton/Webb is the way. Whether Webb would accept a role as anyone's #2 is the real question.
My gut says "no", but my head says "yes," and my heart says the Convention in Denver can't come fast enough.
Comments
If I were a betting person, this is the ticket I'd predict (PM - 2/9/2007 5:49:39 PM)
Up is down and left is right (demo925 - 2/10/2007 1:50:49 PM)
This is retarded! Webb is a loose cannon it would never happen.
Won't happen..... (bladerunner - 2/9/2007 5:50:17 PM)
There is no way Jim Webb will play 2nd fiddle with Hillary Bottom Hands Clinton. Maybe the other way around though. Webb is not in this to be Vice president. He can do more in his Senate seat. I know all you Hillary fans think she can win a general election, but I am here to tell she can not win--thus we must concentrate on other candidates.
"She can not win" is a right-wing talking point. (Lowell - 2/9/2007 5:53:09 PM)
Nothing more. As far as I can tell, Hillary Clinton has an excellent chance to win, and in fact, the Republicans are freaking out over the prospect of that very scenario unfolding.
Screw the Clinton/Webb ticket : wrong order. (loboforestal - 2/9/2007 6:07:33 PM)
I say put Jim on the top of any Webb/Clinton 2008 ticket.
(Lowell, when was the last time we ran an establishment Northern liberal senator and won ? Hillary is toxic. )
If it's a right-wing talking point (Chris Guy - 2/9/2007 6:20:35 PM)
Then it will be picked up by rival Democrats, and vice-versa.
The stuff being slung around already among Dems is what you'd expect from the right.
And a left-wing talking point. And a lot of centrists, too. (Jack Landers - 2/9/2007 6:22:30 PM)
I love how 'that's a right-wing talking point' has become the default manner of dismissing any sort of dissenting view within the Democratic party blogsphere. As if, even if it was true, that would somehow automatically disprove an idea.
I just fail to see why any particular (Lowell - 2/9/2007 6:53:44 PM)
Democratic candidate is inherently "unelectable" in today's atmosphere, given the Iraq debacle and more generally how unpopular Bush and the Republicans are. Normally, I tend to agree that the Dems best bet electorally is to nominate a Southern centrist - Carter, Clinton - but 2008 could very well be quite different. Anyway, Hillary Clinton was born in Illinois and lived in Arkansas for years. Now, she is Senator from New York State, where I would point out she did very well in rural parts of the state, NOT just in liberal urban areas, in the last election.
Hillary Supported Bush and the Iraq Occupation (Alicia - 2/11/2007 12:29:06 PM)
Many will never get over that in a primary. I won't.
Exactly... (Terry85 - 2/10/2007 3:43:07 AM)
Anyone who really believes the Republicans would be running around feverishly promoting the "Hillary is unelectable" garbage because she's really "unelectable" is foolish. They're scared to death of the Clinton "machine" and the prospect of the Clintons in the White House again.
I will agree with bladerunner on this though, I couldn't imagine Jim Webb running with Hillary Clinton (didn't he make some condescending remarks about the Clintons a few years back?) for a myriad of reasons.
Webb and the Clintons (Josh - 2/10/2007 8:36:48 AM)
Don't forget that BOTH Clintons campaigned for Webb multiple times in some of the most high profile events of the campaign. There may have been some rough words in the past, but there have been enough olive branches between Webb and the Clintons to eliminate the "They can't work together" theme. It just ain't so.
Yes on Webb, no on Clinton. (Jack Landers - 2/9/2007 6:03:19 PM)
This statement of yours is pretty over the top; "it's impossible, logically, not to see Hillary as the nation's strongest candidate for the White House in either party."
No declared candidate for President in the 2008 race is more widely despised than Hillary Clinton. I, committed Democrat that I am, would not vote for her in the primary and would sooner write in 'Mickey Mouse' than cast a ballot for her in the general election. There are legions of people like me. While Hillary may have a plurality of support in a crowded primary field, as soon as it gets down to a 2-way race the majority of people in the party who simply cannot stand her will ensure that she has a long career - in the Senate.
The typical Jim Webb Democrat is the precise opposite of the typical Hillary Clinton Democrat. Webb's real strength is that he represents the ascendance of a new kind of Democrat. Populist, anti-war, pro-defense, often second amendment voters who are sick of the old namby-pamby party leadership and want a compassionate government yet not a nanny state. Howard Dean started the ball rolling when he made it ok for gun owners to vote for Democrats and also when he knocked down Terry McAuliffe as Chairman. Jim Webb is our unwilling standard bearer now. Hillary is the party's past. Wishy-washy, gun-control-loving DLC Democrats who will say or do anything to get elected and stand for little more than the advancement of their own careers. Let us be rid of their ilk.
We rode to victory in 2008 on the strength of muscular Democrats. Jim Webb, John Tester, Brad Ellsworth. That's our strength. That's out future. Hillary Clinton is the dead past. If this new, populist, Democratic party movement that has begun to gel has any strength and any meaning, then it will mean the sure defeat of Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary.
A vote for Hillary Clinton is a vote for another 4 years of war in Iraq. She has no real opposition to this conflict. She *voted* for it and has expressed no regrets. Nominating Hillary Clinton would be like a repeat of Nixon vs. Humphrey. With no clear way to vote against the war, why should the party base turn out? Why not just vote for the Republican since the Democrats have the House and Senate anyway? I cannot imagine that Jim Webb would stray from his principles to the extent of agreeing to be Hillary Clinton's running mate. Nor can I imagine that Hillary would want to risk having a man with real convictions and principles as her Vice President, when he would be likely to become a loose cannon criticizing her just as surely as he did Reagan.
Hillary vs. Mrs. Arnold Schwarzenegger in '08 (Bernie Quigley - 2/9/2007 7:46:10 PM)
As Jack Landers says "new populist Democrats" are incompatible with DLC Hillarycrats; the age has changed and we Jim Webb Pupulists finally have the initiative. To yield it now would be folly. Jonathan Chait of "The New Republic" - a Bill Clinton Democrat - writes this week in the LA Times that Hillary is simply a proxy for BIll ("Billary") and the 22nd Amendment should be repealed so he can vote for Bill again direct. This husband/wife thing presents bad faith on part of DLC types - Hillary has already had a direct hand in Presidential governance as "two for one" as they said then - she clearly took a public part in Bill's Administration, so Billary is seeking to transcend 22nd Amendment prohibitions of 3rd term (perhaps there ecould even be legal challenges to her candidacy). But alors, if this is accepted as cultural norm and it seems to be going there, it opens the gate for the Governator, who is also prevented from running by pesky Constitutional issues. If the DLC persists with Billary, the Arnolds could well go ahead with their very successful and popular "New West" "post-partisan" politics in a proxy race between Mrs. Bill Clinton and Mrs. Arnold Schwarzenegger in '08. "Two for one" with the Arnolds could present a very appealing White House.
In many ways I agree (Josh - 2/10/2007 8:44:53 AM)
My read of history here is close to your own. I agree that with you and Thomas Frank. DLC trangulation basically gave the nation to the right wing by abandoning the Democrats' traditional role as protectors of the Middle Class. Populism is the cure for this disease. Agreed.
My analysis, however is based on political reality. Webb, as a first-term Senator has just begun building his populist caucus and Shared Prosperity Agenda. The real question, in my mind isn't whether Clinton will accept Webb, but vice versa, and that will depend, I believe, largely on whether Webb believes he can best realign foreign policy and stand up for economic fairness in the Legislative or Exeutive.
Oil and water (Rebecca - 2/9/2007 6:13:54 PM)
These two would NEVER get along. Their views on foreign policy clash like cymbals. Hillary is all-things-to-all-people, especially if you have money. Webb is just himself.
Damn straight!! You have it in a nutshell. (Catzmaw - 2/9/2007 6:27:18 PM)
Hear, hear!! (summercat - 2/9/2007 6:37:38 PM)
And Webb should stay in the Senate. He can do much more good there--already is, in fact.
How is Hillary a "lock on the nomination and in general?" (presidentialman - 2/9/2007 7:07:30 PM)
Please go in depth on how Hillary locks these things in? As a historian, and someone who likes to ride history, like this past election, I remember when in 2003, though the Democratic feild looked fluid, Howard Dean seemed to be emerging as front-runner. This was in the fall of 2003. There were the Deaniacs, the meet-ups, the introduction of Have you heard about the Governor." People were making comparisons that Dean was the John F. Kennedy of the internet as John F. Kennedy was to television. Then came Iowa and the Dean Scream. Now as I look at it, the GOP got too cocky on that one moment and never saw 2006 coming,so it worked real good in the end, put until the DNC came calling, Dean's career was over. Now its 2007, the beginning, and I'm being told Hillary's got a lock on the nomination and general election, I know your name is Josh, but are sure your name isn't Richard J. Daley? Because that's big boss politics and I thought the blog world represented citizen democracy?
I agree, nobody's a "lock" at this point (Lowell - 2/9/2007 7:21:34 PM)
I'd say there are several serious Democratic candidates, plus one or two "dark horses" lurking out there. I'd also like to hear Josh elaborate more on why he's so confident that Hillary Clinton - or anyone else, for that matter - is a "lock."
Been hearing good things about Vilsack (DanG - 2/9/2007 7:31:32 PM)
Apparently, Governor Vilsack has been impressing a lot of important people. He may be one of those dark horses Lowell is talking about.
And though Hillary is the favorite, Edwards or Obama could easily take a lead on her before the Primary even begins.
That's a right talking point (novamiddleman - 2/9/2007 7:33:09 PM)
haha
On the R side we almost always nominate the frontrunner and thats McCain this time
You guys on the D side always make it more interesting. In the beginning of 2003 was Kerry anywhere
Gore 2000 doesn't count same with Clinton in 96 but in 1991 was Clinton anywhere
P.S. we already have ammo on all 3 frontrunners and the other candidates don't worry about spilling oppo during the primary
Before you jump on me the reverse is true as well :)
You're absolutely right (DanG - 2/9/2007 7:41:37 PM)
GOP nominates the frontrunner.
We almost never do.
So, I don't think it'll be Hillary. I think somebody else is going to get the nomination, maybe Edwards. Maybe Obama.
Right after Gore dropped out (Chris Guy - 2/9/2007 11:17:38 PM)
of the 2004 race, Kerry was considered the best bet in a very wide open race. As 2003 dragged on he slowly fell out of favor before making a comeback in 04.
But Hillary is in her own category. If a VP isn't running, it's considered wide open. But this is neither. This is unique. Bill Clinton is still the standard-bearer and she's the closest thing there is to a successor.
In fact I would argue that this is the most wide-open presidential race in history. You always have a good idea of at least one of the nominees for the two parties. But not this year.
I think predictions based on year's past, while inevitable, will prove meaningless.
Nope, Clinton/Clark (Elaine in Roanoke - 2/9/2007 8:51:44 PM)
I can't see a Clinton/Webb ticket. My bet? Clinton/Clark....That's assuming that Clinton can get the nomination. Don't count on that at this point.
I just feel somebody will overtake her (DanG - 2/9/2007 9:35:38 PM)
I don't know who, but the fascination with Hillary is going to slow down as soon as other candidates are heard from.
So far (Chris Guy - 2/9/2007 11:26:51 PM)
I've underestimated her strength. The polls show that her support is more solid than other candidates. Everyone said that her support was soft and based on name recognition. That's just not true.
Everyone said when Obama jumped in that her support among black voters would drop. They haven't.
Everyone said that they hate her in NH, but her favorability numbers are identical to Edwards and Obama, and much better than Gore or any one else. http://www.mydd.com/...
Your suggestion seems more reliable to me than (Catzmaw - 2/9/2007 10:04:06 PM)
Clinton/Webb. I think that Clark is able to work from the second seat better than Webb, who is the maverick that McCain was supposed to be, but isn't. Clark is an incredible intellect and natural diplomat who can work effectively from the second seat. He's a team player but a natural leader in his own right who has the polish and the political instincts to be able to work from the inside.
Webb is much better as the burgeoning conscience of the Senate. His hero is Moynihan, and he has many Moynihan qualities - intellect, outspokenness, scholarly understanding -- let's let him remain in that position, because the only other thing he is suited for is the Presidency, which isn't happening for 2008. Webb is Moynihan with a gun permit; the scholar with a kick-ass demeanor and a nasty right hook. He can make a lot more change happen in the Senate with his natural leadership capabilities than he could as the number 2 on a presidential ticket. This is why I am opposed to him in the Number 2 spot on the ticket. My advice, as always, is let Webb be Webb. The rest of the Senate and a lot of the country will follow.
I love how nobody denies Webb's Presidential Qualities (DanG - 2/9/2007 10:42:10 PM)
I agree with Catzmaw. I just love that nobody, myself included, says that Webb just isn't "Presidential Material." He'd be an amazing President. But we're all too selfish to give him up! :)
Quote of the week... (Josh - 2/9/2007 11:23:26 PM)
" Webb is Moynihan with a gun permit; the scholar with a kick-ass demeanor and a nasty right hook."
brilliant
As I've said before, Hillary is a fine senator from the state of NY... (bladerunner - 2/9/2007 10:11:52 PM)
....but a lot of us democrats have just had enough of the Clintons--It's time to move on--they are partially to blame for Virginia being so Republican at the state level.
She won't be able to win any southern states, just won't happen. The GOP and Murdoch would like nothing more than having her on the Dem ticket. Why else would Murdoch be holding fund raisers for her. Like always, Hillary is doing a fine job in NY though.
I hope he declines all offers... (thegools - 2/10/2007 2:03:25 AM)
...the VP offer is a is a siren song. I'd rather have him as an unrestrained voice speeking truth to power from the Senate.
Why must we promote him out of the job we just hired him to do...before he has really had a chance to do it???
We finally have come upon a Senator who is not afraid to do his job and now we want to get rid of him???!!
I love having Jim Webb in the Senate too, but... (Lowell - 2/10/2007 7:43:35 AM)
I would just point out that the Vice Presidency is not the "bucket of warm spit" it used to be. :)
You're right of course (DanG - 2/10/2007 7:00:54 PM)
Gore was a very active VP, and Cheney has pretty much had as much influence as the President himself. A VP can choose whether he wants to "sit pretty" and wait for election, of whether he/she wants to work on pet projects (as Gore and Cheney did).