That is likely to be the case for Virginia's 34th State Senate District. The incumbent is a "moderate" Republican elected as Jeanne Devolites. Note the way I phrased that. She is now the wife of Congressman Tom Davis (R - VA-11), who desperately wants to succeed John Warner in the US Senate, and from the scuttlebutt had wanted to have his wife run for his seat as he moved up (if Warner retires). But first she has to get reelected. Which is not, to use the Geroge Tenet terminology, a slam-dunk.Tonight I attended an event for her opponent Chap Peterson. I thought I would take a few moments to share with you about Chap, about the event, and explain, in case you have not already figured out, why this race wilol be both interesting and expensive.
and this diary is being crossposted at RaisingKaine and dailykos
Chap Peterson has previously represented part of this district in the House of Delegates. He left his House seat to try for the lieutenant governor's spot on the Democratic ticket with Tim Kaine in 2005, but lost in a 4-way primary to Leslie Byrne. He has a number of things in common with Jim Webb - he is a former Marine, a lawyer, and has a wife of Asian background. But when he tried at his kickoff event to included in the commonalities being short Jim pointed out that there was a significant difference in height. Chap is a bow tie aficianado. He is a vigorous campaigner. This race will be highly competitive, although I think I would give him an edge, even though he will be massively outspent (and yes, he has an Act Blue account, but the online mechanisms are not yet fully established - if you want to give money I assure you that you will eventually have that opportunity - fundraising is not the point of this posting).
Tom Davis can raise huge amounts of money. We expect that he will press his financial contacts to help his wife, although at some point additional money becomes meaningless. Yes Devolites could buy broadcast tv or radio, but in a senate district that represents perhaps 3-5% of the population of the broadcast area, that is not an efficient use of campaign funds. Chap won't do broadcast, although cabl TV ads and some radio are possible.
Chap, like Webb in his US Senate race, is thus challenging an incumbent with far better access to funds. But he already has some name recognition because of his House of Delegates service and his attempt for statewide office. And he is already actively working.
His campaign has already begun the process of lit drops and door knocks. Today's event ties in with it, although it is a bit unusual.
Tonight people were invited to an event in a bar positioned near the intersection of several precincts that Chap has NOT represented before. There was free food (chicken wings) provided by the campaign. This was a chance for people to get to know Chap, to network, to socialize. On Saturday morning people will meet at the same locale to begin the lit drop (and if they decided to get back together after completing their rounds, it would not be surprising. Oh, and this was NOT a fundraiser, although people could (as did I) contribute if so inclined.
This is the first Thursday of the month. Next month it will be at a different bar in a different part of the district. This will be a regular feature of the start of the month - bringing together supporters from that part of the district, from elsewhere in the District, or like me from outside the district. It is a chance to build relationships preparatory to doing the real political work.
Chap will do his share of fundraising for this race. He has a big event in a couple of weeks at the Virginia Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Richmond (itself being keynoted by Barack Obama, and already sold out - my wife and I are attending). He has rented a suite in the hotel and will have a fundraising reception featuring several "big" Democratic names in the hours before the dinner. It promises to be a successful event, and an interesting way to start the evening.
I believe that this will be the highest profile race in Virginia this year. Unlike LA, MS and KY we do not have a governor's race this year, but like those states and NJ we do have legislative races. In Virginia Dems need 4 seats net to take control of the chamber (the odds are somewhat longer for the House of Delegates, but we hope to make serious headway this cycle, to position us for control in 2009).
I met several interesting people at the event. One is a key player in the Fairfax County Democratic Committee whose position gives that person the ability to really draw on the volunteer strength of the county-wide party. Since s/he is running a bit below the radar, I must apologize for not being more specific. This is a person with a long positive trackrecord on behalf of Dems in Fairfax, including in Jim Webb's victories both in the primary and on November 7.
Chap has just hired his campaign manager. Joe Abbey is quite experienced in Virginia elections. He was involved with Creigh Deeds in the special election Deeds won to fill the Senate seat of the late Emilie Couric (sister of Katie) who had she not died would almost certainly have been elected LT Gov, and probably would have followed that by becoming the first female governor of Virginia. Joe worked on Mark Warner's 2001 win as governor. His most notable race perhaps is running the senate campaign for Toddie Puller in 2003. In a race that was originally expected to be a nailbiter Puller pulled 58% of the vote.
I expect the race to be difficult, but as I said I give the edge to Chap. The district, which includes Vienna and Fairfax City, is tilting more Democratic, as in common in all of Northern Virginia. Devolites has the image of a moderate, but she votes with a Republican majority which while not as fully wingnut as its brethren in the House of Delegates is still far more conservative on most issues than are her constituents. She is vulnerable on a number of issues, and I'm not sure money will make up for that.
Peterson has a network of previous volunteers, and access to the wider network of Webb volunteers: he was an early endorser of Jim. And is shown by the lit drops the campaign is already involved in doing field work.
I expect that i will from time to time post about this race. Just remember, there are important races this year, and things of political importance beyond who is ahead in the presidential primary sweepstakes.
Now excuse me, I have a ton of papers to grade. I will check in from time to time.
Peace.
I think it's pretty cool how he's picking a spot for the "Chappy Hour" and then canvassing out of that same location a few days later. It's a refreshing approach to the down and dirty field work of a campaign.