Based on their 2006 averages in leaned party identification, Gallup classifies 33 states as Democratic in orientation (the state showed a statistically significant advantage in Democratic leaning in 2006) and six as Republican (the state showed a statistically significant advantage in Republican leaning in 2006). The remaining 10 states (including District of Columbia, but not including Alaska and Hawaii since Gallup does not interview in those states) are considered competitive, because the leading party's advantage is within the margin of error for that state's data. The overall results show a net gain of six states for Democrats and a net loss of six for Republicans from 2005. The shift since 2003 has been dramatic, when Republican-leaning states outnumbered Democratic-leaning states 20-14.
How about Virginia? According to Gallup data for 2006, 51% of Virginians are either "Democratic" or "Lean Democratic." Only 41% are either "Republican" or "Lean Republican." The rest are "independent" or "No Lean." Virginia's 10-point "Democratic"/"Leans Democratic" advantage puts the Commonwealth ahead of Pennsylvania (+8) and Wisconsin (+6) in the "blue" column. Virginia ranks just 1 point behind California (+11) in "blueness."
Yeah, I'm skeptical about this data, but Gallup is a respected polling company so I wouldn't discount it completely. One complication is that Virginia Democrats are almost certainly more conservative on social issues than Democrats in states like Rhode Island, Vermont and California. So, being a Democrat here doesn't necessarily mean the same thing as it does there. Still, I think the Gallup data is encouraging, especially combined with wins in recent years by Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb (plus, gains in the General Assembly). So what do you think, is Virginia turning "blue?"
Only with creative district lines can a city like Newport News with around 57% democratic performance be represented by 3 GOP delegates and 1 Democrat.
I believe that there are red counties and blue counties, but too many states are amalgams. Virginia's a prime example. We have San Francisco on the Potomac attached to the district of Frank Hargrove. We are Massachusetts, Kentucky and Georgia rolled into one.
We left 2 district totally uncontested (only 10 were left open nationwide) and only VA-02 was a targeted race.
Like 2005 when we won a Governor's race, Democrats can rejoice in Jim Webb's top of the ticket Senate seat but overall we've got a lot of work to do to turn Virginia Blue.
Virginia is competitive; it may even be purple. But it definitely isn't a light shade of blue.
Virginia is obviously a purple state these days, based on the election results over the last six years in statewide races. While Virginia is still resisting the urge to cast its electoral votes for a Dem presidential candidate, it will eventually happen, if not in 2008, in 2012.
I firmly believe that Gallup's numbers are the result of the mood of the country these days, as well as the mood of voters in Virginia. It's not so important where the state is now but where it will be in 2008. Key demographic changes that have been helping the Dems win statewide are going to continue moving in the Dems direction. More folks from the Northeast and Mid-West who hold much more liberal views than traditional Virginian's, are continuing to move into the state in droves. Accoding to the 2000 census, Virginia was the number one destination for African-American's who were moving back to the south from large Northeastern and Mid-Western cities. The trick is to continue building the party from the grass roots up, get these new Virginian's registered to vote and turn them out on election day. The state party has got to do a better job of planning and funding a GOTV effort in EVERY election!
NOVA will provide bigger and bigger margins for Dems as time goes by. The trick statewide is to continue racking up big numbers in the large cities of Hampton Roads as well, limit losses in Virginia Beach, rack up big margins in Richmond while limiting losses in the surrounding suburbs, which is not as difficult these days, as Dems have begun carrying counties like Henrico, which was sooooooo Republican for so long. Even in Chesterfiled County, results for Dems keep getting better as time goes by. Of course, the big problem in the Richmond area is Hanover County. It is still growing rapidly but it still is as Republican as ever!
So lets do it - turn it BLUE!
With the internet, could it be that someday the entire state votes for all Congressman, Delegates and State Senators instead of each District voting for their own? Should that ever happen, it would again prove the 1/3 theroy.
When I started attending the NCDC meetings, there were about 13 people attending. The last 11 meetings there has been a constant increase in attendance. The Jan.30th meeting had over 50 people in attendance. Only around 4 were new comers to the county, which disproves the theroy we are changing because of the out of staters. The state of the State and the state of the Nation has awoken a sleeping Giant.
Mark Warner started the change. George W. Bush continued that change in 2004, then Tim Kaine continued it further in 2005. And as long as the Virgil Goode's and Frank Hargrove's continue to speak as they do, the trend will continue. Isn't it amazing how voters change when the see the true color inside one's heart. As the House of Delegates continue there BS the change will continue. A true American knows that it costs to support an honest Government and will pay their fair share. And the heck with always anti this and anti that.