RK ARCHIVE - John Warner Race: Why Virginia 2008 will be different from Virginia 2006

Needless to say, the state is vastly different from the state John Warner ran in last time, in 2002. Of the 4 statewide races for state office, democrats have won 3 of the 4. The one that dems lost, was John Warner's 2002 race, in which he had no democratic opponent.

NoVA provided the winning margin in all 3 races. Webb, for example, won NoVA by about 58%, while Allen won the rest of the state by about 53%. The one race that NoVA wasn't enough was 2004, when Kerry ran for president. But NoVA wasn't enough not because there weren't enough votes, but because Kerry didn't win NoVA by a large enough margin. Kerry won NoVA by only 53%. Kaine's win in 2005, along with Webb's, and Kerry's loss, illustrates that typicaly, a dem needs to be polling close to 60% in NoVA. If they do that, the republican, even a John Warner, wont be strong enough to overcome the strength of NoVA.

So I think we need to start getting ready for this senate race. This senate seat, I believe, will be ours, sooner or later. I think we should get Mark Warner to announce his candidacy early. If he does, John Warner may be persuaded to retire.

Comments

Interesting diary... (Rob - 1/3/2007 10:03:23 AM)

Recommended to promote discussion on this. I think that some serious-but-respectful aggressiveness in 2007 might get John Warner to retire, as Lowell blogged about yesterday.

One area of "aggression" can be this sort of analysis - to analyze why 2008 won't be a cakewalk for John Warner.

that was my intention in posting this diary (EmperorHadrian - 1/4/2007 12:18:00 AM)

at least one large aspect of Allen's defeat was the passion and aggressiveness of the blogosphere. people thought Allen was unbeatable. People may assume the same about John Warner. But remember, the last time John Warner had an opponent (1996) it was an unknown Mark Warner, and John Warner only won by a couple percentage points. Had the 1996 electorate been the same as the 2006 electorate, not only would John Warner had been badly defeated, but Clinton would have easily won the state.

First catch your rabbit (Silver Fox - 1/4/2007 9:08:47 AM)

There's an old saying about the recipe for rabbit stew (or any other main component): first catch the rabbit. I think there is great merit in starting now to ramp up enthusiasm for a candidate to oppose Sen. John Warner, but I would respectfully suggest that the first thing on the agenda is to get Mark Warner, Don Beyer, or whomever to actually commit to running. THEN we can start to build excitement and support in the grassroots community. We'll be out there already working hard for our local and state candidates in 2007 so it would be easy to also add, "Hey, and by the way, so-and-so will be running as the Democratic US Senatorial candidate in 2008" at the same time we promote our Democratic candidates for the state senatorial or delegate and other positions. And we DO NOT need a divisive spat within the state party. Let the big guns decide now who is going to carry the banner forward for the US Senate. We DO NOT need another Webb/Miller bloodletting in a war between the grassroots and the official party. If we slash an artery with a self-inflicted wound, we weaken our own body politic.

First catch the rabbit. Then we'll turn up the heat and start assembling the ingredients for a tasty meal.

you know (EmperorHadrian - 1/5/2007 3:13:31 AM)

one of the reasons democrats took the majority in the senate was because they didn't lose any of their incumbents. but this wasn't how it had to be. the DSCC and democratic incumbents took several early steps to ensure that democratic incumbents in red states didn't face their most serious challenger. for example, just about the only person who had any chance of beating Ben Nelson in Nebraska was the governor. Partly because Schumer and the DSCC assisted Nelson in raising a lot of money early to scare off the governor, that governor didn't run, and Nelson easily won.

early plotting matters, possibly moreso than later plotting. this is why mark warner needs to announce ASAP that he is running for John Warner's seat again.

I'm proud to be a part of the change (democrattotheend - 1/5/2007 4:21:33 PM)

I'm moving to Arlington from DC this weekend, and I am proud to be a part of helping to turn the state blue.

I think if Warner runs again he will probably win, but who knows? I don't think anyone thought Allen was beatable two years out. And if Warner retires I think we have a really good shot.