What John Warner's letter says, and who his opponent should be

By: Rob
Published On: 12/19/2006 3:00:39 PM

RK has reported on this letter already, but finally John Warner's words are seen for what they are: an announcement. The Hill states the obvious:
Warner ends bid for EPW's top spot, declares for reelection

Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) announced Thursday that he would cede the ranking member's post on the Environment and Public Works Committee to Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.) and reassured many Republicans by discussing his intention to seek a sixth Senate term.

Markos has provides his reaction and optimism about Democratic chances, and floats Mark Warner's name. Others here have made a case for optimism as well.

Personally, I don't think Mark Warner will or should run against John Warner. I'd rather see the most popular Democrat in Virginia (with all due respect to Jim Webb) be free and clear in 2008 for a Vice Presidential nod. And our Warner has his own aura of invincibility that could allow him to sleepwalk into the governorship - why bloody him up in a very tough campaign?
This isn't to say that Mark Warner can't beat John Warner. The Clash of the Warners would make this a top tier race, but any Democrat running against a well-respected Senator with approval ratings hovering at 60% despite the anti-GOP atmosphere has to be considered an underdog. I'd rather take the shot at a Virginian on the national ticket and (should he be passed over) a guaranteed Democratic retention of the governship. In contrast, I don't want to bet all of that for one Senate seat in 2008.

But, I do agree with Markos that Virginia Democrats should make a credible run at John Warner. I'd like to see one of our rising stars get a shot at some great campaign experience and name recognition. Someone who could mount a serious challenge should the dynamics allow for one down the road. There are many "rising stars" to chose from, but I think the experience level of Creigh Deeds makes him the most credible candidate of the bunch. He's served in elected public office for 20 years, has been a Virginia legislator since 1991, and has (almost winning) statewide campaign experience.

His public service career began in 1987 when he was elected Bath County CommonwealthGÇÖs Attorney. In 1991 he ran successfully for the House of Delegates, where he served for 10 years.  At the end of his tenure in the House, Sen. Deeds served as chair of the Democratic caucus.  Sen. Deeds has served in the Senate since winning a special election in 2001 to fill a vacant seat.  In 2005, he was the Democratic nominee for Attorney General.
Remember, the last rising star to run against John Warner was Mark Warner - and we all know how he parlayed that experience and name recognition.

Anyway, those are just my off-the-cuff preliminary thoughts. I'm happy to be swayed. So, who do you think should run against Warner? And who do you think will run against him?

Comments



See my comment about the photo in the Tom Davis thread (Sean Robertson - 12/19/2006 4:48:40 PM)
You guys have really outdone yourselves.  LOL
http://www.raisingka...

There were rumors of Mark Warner getting back into the presidential race flying around DC the last few days, but now I'd almost bet money it was a case of mistaken identity and it was John Warner all along.  LOL

I don;t know about you guys, but I'd love to see a Warner v. Warner contest.  Bet that'd confuse a few people!



Deja Vu (Waldo Jaquith - 12/19/2006 5:08:20 PM)
The Virginia political blogosphere has no institutional memory. :)  The "MarkNotJohn" race was in 1996, when Mark Warner ran against Sen. John Warner in what proved to be the warm-up to his race for governor.


Call me a cynic, (summercat - 12/19/2006 5:41:46 PM)
but I think John Warner is unbeatable in VA.  (Let us not forget that the blogs don't really reflect voter reality.) And we could do worse (as we did with G. Alklen for far too long.)  I am interested to hear that Mark Warner is testing the waters--I believe his family really doesn't want him in national politics--but he would be a great VP on a Clark ticket--and I would be thrilled if he were governor again.


Mark Warner: 15% Chance? (cycle12 - 12/20/2006 4:57:46 AM)
After reading most of the comments above, I am reminded of the story about Steve Jarding's December, '05 comment to Jim Webb that Jarding thought Webb had perhaps a 15% chance of beating Virginia's then-sitting, very popular, seemingly unbeatable junior U. S. Senator.

I am also reminded of my January, '06 conversation with a former upper-level member of the DPVA who told me that neither Harris Miller nor Jim Webb could beat that same former junior U. S. Senator from Virginia.

Reaching further back in time, I am also reminded of the initial dire predictions for Tim Kaine's chances of being elected Governor of Virginia in 2005.  This blog believed differently, and proved it.

The list goes on and on, but I have no doubt that Mark Warner can win any Virginia political race to which he sets his mind and considerable energies and resources.

And I have no doubt that Mark Warner's chances at beating John Warner in 2008 are considerably higher than the 15% that Jarding gave Webb a year ago.

Have we so quickly forgotten Jim Webb's very recent, "impossible", come-from-behind, nearly miraculous election victory?

Please remember; if we say we can't, that will be true.

I say he/we can.

Thanks!

Steve



I salute your optimism. but I still (summercat - 12/21/2006 8:32:03 AM)
think even M. Warner could not defeat J. Warner.  No offense to M. Warner--but J. Warner is an institution here, and he won't make the kind of blunders George Allen made which were in large part responsible for Jim Webb's victory.  Nor does he have G. Allen's overtly racist background.
Personally, I wouldn't give any funds to anyone running against J. Warner.  Waste of money, imo.  Maybe Harris Miller will try it, being self-funded and seemingly having a good opinion of himself as a potential senator. I would love to see Mark Warner as VP candidate, tho.


Personally (Gordie - 12/20/2006 10:27:10 AM)
to me it does not matter if Mark can beat John or not. It is will Mark be better for VA as a Senator or a Governor or maybe VP.

Not being in the know, just who will run against Kilgore or Bolling in '09. As much as I like Deeds will it come down to another 323 vote count or will we be organized enough to help Deeds win?

If we are not organized, then Mark in '09. Unless he is VP?



Cede the environment to a lunatic? (Dan - 12/20/2006 10:56:04 AM)
Inhofe is ANTI-environmentalist.  I'd like that bastard to drive around Los Angeles for awhile and breathe the air.  What a joke. Every time Warner seems like a good Senator he does something like this.  Remember his opposition to wind projects throughout the U.S.?