UPDATE: Looks like Senator Warner is in fact running, and he is VERY weak (Unfortunately the lack of a Dem candidate in 2002 left the impression that he was invincible)… This is an ideal opportunity got Virginia Democrats!!!
Its looking more and more likely that Senator John Warner (R) will seek re-election in 2008, but is he beatable? Hell Yes!
The only thing that Warner can credit for his narrow ‘96 win over Mark Warner is a god-like showing in Northern Virginia (District totals adjusted for re-districting):
Both Webb and Kaine got 69-70% in the 8th and did very well in the 10th (~50%) and 11th (~55%)… highlighting a Democratic trend that would probably keep Warner from doing well in Northern Virginia.
But Allen did very poorly in Northern Virginia and won… Thats because Allen had strong support throughout the rest of the state, something John Warner does not enjoy:
Any Democrat who is acceptable to Northern Virginia Democrats and can capitalize on John Warner’s weakness in Southwest Virginia could easily knock him off… I think Gov. Mark Warner or Gov. Tim Kaine would be the perfect candidate, but so would Sen. John Edwards, Sen. Creigh Deeds, or another moderate (but not too conservative) regional candidate.
Anyone want to draft Ollie as a 3rd party candidate as a thorn in Warner's side?
A run for Governor would be nice, but I think Mark Warner's going to do that in '09.
Lt. Governor, as Warner's "ticketmate" would almost assuredly get him elected, since he came ever so close in his AG race. Warner-Deeds would be coattails a-plenty in Southwest. But, assuming he's elected, he then has to bide his time until the '13 governor's race, and recent history in Virginia (and really any state for that matter) shows that after 8-12 years of control of the governor's chair, there's the inevitable party fatigue, so that could be something of a dead end for him.
If he really wants to aim high, the '08 Senate race would be the one to go for. I think you make a good point about John Warner's lack of support in non-NOVA; couple that with Deeds's strength in SWVA, and things could get interesting.
I think Warner would grab higher numbers than Allen did in NOVA, but Deeds will win some counties Allen did not, while still losing many, yet by a smaller margin than Webb.
I think a lot of it will come down to Hampton Roads in a Warner-Deeds Senate race. I imagine that Deeds will do better there than he did against McDonnell, since that's Bob's home stomping grounds, but will it be enough to offset the strength of a former Navy Secretary and five-term incumbent? Time will tell.
At this point, it's Warner's race to lose, but just six months ago, we would have said the same for Allen. It would be worth it for him to get into the race. He won't have to give up his state Senate seat, and as long as he doesn't get creamed, he still stands a chance at some other race in the future.