Gergen started off discussing the midterms with three main points.
First, that Karl Rove's dream of a permanent Republican Majority is over. We are still a 50/50 nation, much like we were when Bush entered office. Rallying the base worked very well for the GOP in 2002 and 2004, but independent voters are still a viable force in this country and they rejected the GOP soundly this November. He said that all sides should embrace the results of this election, which he called 'a necessary cleansing' of corruption on Capitol Hill and one that is cyclical in nature.
On his second point, he said that the Democrats have their best chance in 25 years to re-define themselves nationally. He beleives that the period of GOP dominance that began with Reagan's election and continued with the Gingrich revolution is over, and we are entering a period where Democrats have a chance to lead again. He beleives the key to this is offering fresh perspective, not being beholden to interest groups, and engaging in ideas . It is the desire for a new outlook that made Mark Warner was such an attractive candidate and that fuels Barack Obama's potential candidacy. He characterized the midterms as a "rejection election", not a Democratic mandate.
Finishing up domestically, he proclaimed that the Religous Right's dominance of American politics is over. From abortion to stem cell research to intelligent design, voters clearly favor moderate politices over those of Jerry Fallwell and Pat Robertson. He had one stat I found particularly fascinating; that twice as many people beleive in the Virgin Birth than in evolution, yet a majority of voters reject teaching intelligent design in school.
Gergen next moved to a discussion of Iraq that I found equally enlightening and horrifying. He recalled a conversation he recently had with a retired 4-star General who declared that we are living in the most dangerous moment of his lifetime. The hornet's nest we have opened in the Middle East is will have implications for the 21st century we can't even imagine.
Gergen noted that if he could choose one President to lead the country right now, it would be Richard Nixon. He said so not because Nixon was a great leader, but because he understood the dark side of human nature and was a ruthlessly effective foreign leader. He revealed a hilarious story of when Bob Dole was speaking at a banquet and saw Jimmy Carter, Gerald Ford, and Richard Nixon. Pointing to the ex-Presidents, Dole deadpanned "Speak no evil, hear no evil, Evil!"
Gergen continued that the Vietnam comparison was unfair; Iraq is much worse. Iraq has reached such chaos that in many ways we're no longer calling the shots. The degree that we can influence the course of Iraq is very small and is diminishing by the day.
Gergen reminded the audience that it took Eisenhower to end Korea and it took Nixon to end Vietnam, and leaving Iraq will almost certainly be the job of our next President. Gergen noted how dangerous this outcome was, because of how volatile the next two years will be.
Quoting Colin Powell's observation, Gergen beleives we are in a civil war that could very well break into a regional war. Iran will not let the Shiites be run over, Saudi Arabia will not let the Sunnis be slaughtered, and Turkey will not let the Kurds have an independent state.
The leaders in Washington that Gerden most respects all agree that democracy in Iraq is dead. Our best hope is a regional approach but ultimately things are going to get worse before they get better.
In addition to our foreign policy challenges, Gergen empasized how many problems we face at home: Health Care, Energy Independence, Climate Change, our trade deficit, and economic competitiveness from Asia. Gergen mentioned a conversation he had with Andrew Grove, CEO of Intel. Grove said that at our current course, he beleives in 30 years American living standards will DECLINE 40 PERCENT.
This stunned the audience. Gergen elaborated "Imagine he's being overly pessmistic, which he likely is. But imagine the consequences of our standard of living declining 20 percent. Gergen called on the imperative need to close the gap between rich and poor, black and white, and to prepare all young people for the challenges of the global economy. Gergen declared that NAFTA could not pass through this Congress, and that ultimately that was a bad thing. Closing our borders is not an option, but we desperatley need to improve our human capital.
I'll take this time to plug Governor Kaine's program of universal preschool education. Secretary Thomas Morris was in attendance, and Mr. Gergen mentioned him and how improving education is the greatest challenge currently facing America. He warned that while Democrats are more trusted to improve education, if they remain beholded to teachers unions they will ultimately fail and leave America weaker. He noted that teachers deserve our highest respect, but we must strive for greater accountability and innovative teaching solutions.
Gergen closed his lecture saying that only Ancient Rome equals modern America in world influence. He predicted that future generations will judge how effective Americans dealt with the challenges we face now, particularly in regard to climate change and resolving peace in the Middle East. In short, if you think Americans are resented now, imagine how poorly we'll be thought of in 50 years if we don't show leadership.
In the Q&A portion, Gergen criticized the Bush administration for being too supportive of Israel at the neglect of other Middle Eastern nations. Gergen clarified his remarks by mentioning how his own daughter converted to Judaism and married an Israeli man, as well as the deep respect he holds for the state of Israel, which he regarded as "America in the desert." He declared that while Israel will always be our best friend in the region, they should not be our only friend. Gergen criticized the Bush administration for neglecting nations such as Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco and for botching relations with the Palestinians.
In essence, the Bush administration tried to replace democracy with stability in the Middle East. Beleiving that the status quo had caused 9/11, the Bush administration tried to shake up the Middle East. According to Gergen, we have not acheived democracy and we have lost stability.
Gergen closed with criticism of gerrymandering and his hope that the Democratic Governors would not go to great lengths to seek revenge on the Republicans in 2010. Gergen called gerrymandering essentially 'a conspiracy among elected officials against the citizenry.'
All in all it was an incredible lecture that reminded the audience the multiple challenges we face as a nation, and how desperatley we need real leadership.