Most of you already know that the GOP has to actually defend more seats in 2008, than they did in 2006.There is no guarantee how well we will do, but I wanted to write a diary on how well we should do.
If we can play our cards right, and don't shoot ourselves in the foot. We should have a solid majority in 2008.
There are some seats I will write about in this diary, on who occupies them, why they need to leave, and how we can take it back. Hopefully, we are not too gleeful of our wins in 2006, and are still very focused on increasing our majority in all offices in this country.
Here are the seats I think we will win and why:
1) Minnesota - Senator Norm Coleman, is Mr. Turncoat. The self-described "life-long democrat" helped run Paul Wellstone's 1996 Senate campaign and then ran against him in 2002. Paul Wellstone was one of this country's greatest senators. This seat belongs to us, and here's to getting a real progressive in that seat. The potential challenger is, Al Franken.
2) Georgia - Georgia? Yes, Georgia. In 2002, Senator Max Cleland was running against a challeger named Saxby Chambliss. Chambliss had the audacity to compare Senator Cleland to UBL, and therefore questioned his patriotism. What's wrong with that, well. Not only is Cleland a damn patriot who left limbs in Vietnam serving in the U.S. Army. Second, how dare anyone questions any citizen's patriotism. Cleland has already ruled out a possible rematch, but is quietly pushing all his weight behind Congressman Jim Marshall a decorated U.S. Army Hall of Hero's Bronze Star Winner. And, ya think Veteran's are not going to be motivated to come to Georgia and fight back. If Jim Marshall's in this race in 2008, good luck Chambliss.
3) Colorado - Congressman Mark Udall had made no secret of his intentions in passing on the 2006 governor race to take on Senator Allard in 2008. Colorado's Democrats have a lot to feel confident about. This state is trending blue fast, as they elected Senator Salazar in 2004, and in 2006 Bill Ritter as Governor. I expect in 2008 Colorado, home of the 2008 Democratic Convention I might add will have TWO Democratic Senators.
4) New Mexico - Senator Domenici just confirmed yesterday that he will run for another term in 2008, he faces no real opposition. This is unfortunate because New Mexico is also trending blue, if Governor Bill Richardson realizes he doesn't have a shot in hell in winning the presidency or probably being on the ticket he could be the next Democratic Senator from New Mexico. I think Bill would serve our country and party best by being back in Washington DC in the Senate. Come on Richardson!
5) Virginia - Senator John Warner hasn't decided if he will retire yet or not. Which puts the race in a hold until he decides. However, the rumor is strong that he will retire for two reasons. Reason one, he's old and wears tennis shoes in the Senate. Reason two, he's now in the minority and pushing in age I really think John Warner's day's in American politics are numbered. I honestly have respect for him, but Virginia is changing. Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, and Jim Webb have proved this. Expect Mark Warner who passed on the 2008 Presidential race to stay closer to home and spend time with family to win big, and easily in a state that he help a near 80% approval rating a Governor. From Senator John Warner to Senator Mark Warner!
6) Tennessee - Senator Lamar Alexander is another Republican senator who is getting very old in age. I am not expecting him to retire, but a younger, fresher, more determined Harry Ford could give him a run for his money. Since Harry Ford already has a team together or probably still in a good place he could keep them together to make a second run at the Senate. Ford was closer than expected in 2006, If he runs again I predict a squeaker in 2008 for him.
7) New Hampshire - New Hampshire? What, they have a Rebublican Senator? That's what I said. Well actually they have 2 GOP Senators. This one may be a real battle for Senator Sununu to keep his job in 2008. If this trend keeps pushing our way nationwide and especially in the Northeast, it's going to be very challenging for Sununu to be a Senator for long. I don't even know who would challenge him? Hopefully they have a Jim Webb or Jon Tester around or Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen could comeback for a rematch?
Finally there are two more possible seats for 2008, but are unlikely Susan Collins, a member of the "Gang of 14" a moderate Republican in Maine, and Oregon's Gordon Smith who Democrats will find it hard to challegne him. I hope I am wrong for both, I love Democratic pickups!
So, in spirit of many of my good friends on the blogosphere.
"Let's get to work"
To the top of the list of pick-ups I would love to add Alaska. Ted Stevens is likely vacating his seat and it would be nice to find a viable Tester-like moderate to flip the seat into the D column.
Nebraska could represent a Dem. opportunity if Chuck Hagel retires too.
Even though these are long-shots I would really like to see Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) and John Coryn (R-Texas) sent packing too.
I know of no Dem in NE who could beat him.
The right Democrat who is an economic populist, pro-labor, and civil libertarian but moderate on natural resources issues and conservative on issues like guns (a must for that rural state) could beat Smith by a 60-40% margin. Peter DeFazio is just the ticket if he could be convinced to run for Senate.
On our side, I foresee us, barring a miracle, losing Landrieu's seat in 2008. The LA demographics due to the Katrina diaspora are highly unfavorable for Democrats, and Landrieu only kept the seat in 2002 by running as ultra-GOP-lite.
Realistically, even though the GOP is playing far more defense than we are...should conditions be the same in 2 years as they are now (which they won't be), I foresee 3 pickups for us (CO, MN, and NH) and one loss (LA), for a 53-47 majority. And then we can kick Joe Lieberman to the street.
Mark (dems2004 at Dkos)
What about Kathleen Sebelius, the Gov of Kentucky, if she could be drafted to run for Senate?
I'm all for Dem Governors running for Senate when their terms as Govs are up. And so should they be... Gov+US Senate experience makes for a faster and smoother track towards presidential elections than just one of those (Gov *or* Sen), since one has *both* the executive and the legislative experience under one's belt. I bet that's why Allen (prior to the macaca moment) was considered prime presidential material and why Santorum is rumored to be looking to run for the Governorship of PA next chnce he gets.
Landrieu in LA... I agree, she's likely to lose and, probably, deservedly so. She's a feather brain (the first time I saw/heard her, right after Katrina, I thought she must have been the model for all the "blonde jokes". (and, since I used to be a blonde myself, I have nothing against them
And I agree with PsiFighter; the hope of having a decisive majority *without* LIEberman after '08 is what puts a smile on my face just before I fall asleep at night... We shouldn't have to dicker with the SOB, much less be at his mercy. Though I do, sometimes, wish someone would call his bluff, let him cross the aisle permanently and see how he likes being a counterweight on the other side. It sure as hell would close his political career in CT in double-quick time too. Can't even wish for him to drop dead -- the way many of my friends are wishing fo Menendez in NJ -- 'cause the Gov in CT is on the dark side and would replace him with something worse