Do We Really Know Warner's Plans?

By: Ambivalent Mumblings
Published On: 11/17/2006 2:32:17 AM

This is cross-posted on Ambivalent Mumblings.

Most of VirginiaGs blogosphere has assumed that Senator John Warner would be retiring in 2008. As a result, there has been a fair amount of discussion about some of the potential candidates who would be interested in becoming VirginiaGs next representative in the US Senate. Much to the delight of VirginiaGs Democrats (and many Republicans and Independents), there has even been some speculation that Mark Warner could potentially be the Democratic nominee. An article in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, however, calls into question whether or not Warner is actually going to be retiring.

John Warner, who is 79 years old, first became a member of the Senate in 1979 and believes that Virginians benefit from having a Senator with a significant amount of political experience. As the Times-Dispatch mentions, however, Jim Webb is a relative newcomer to the world of politics. George AllenGs defeat is therefore a factor in whether or not Warner will seek reelection to a sixth term.

Allen had 20 years of experience in public office in Virginia, Warner said. The Democrat who defeated him last week, Jim Webb, is a newcomer to elective office.

"The absence of that experience, in terms of senators that represent the state, is a factor," Warner said when asked in an interview whether Allen's defeat would play into his future decision-making.

When you consider some of the politicians who are considered potential replacements, however, you are forced to admit that they have a fair amount of experience.
On the Republican side, for instance, it has been rumored that Tom Davis is considering running for office. In his case, he was just reelected to his seventh term in Congress (even though he said he would only serve six.) Furthermore, he has held some leadership positions such as being the Chairman of the House Committee on Government Reform.

Warner would probably be delighted to have Davis as a potential replacement because, in addition to having years of experience, some people believe that he is a moderate (even though he has supported Bush almost 90% of the time). There is also the plain and simple fact that Davis is a Republican. Even though Warner says he primarily wants to ensure that Virginia has a Senator with experience, I imagine he would rather have an experienced Republican than an experienced Democrat.

The Democrats also have an experienced potential candidate in Gov. Mark Warner. Given his title, he obviously served as VirginiaGs governor. His popularity with Virginians also became extremely apparent when he was launched into the national limelight after helping Tim Kaine become the CommonwealthGs current governor. It is reasonable to conclude that Senator John Warner would view a term as governor as an experience that would greatly assist the former governor. After all, when the senator described his former colleague Chuck Robb for the Times-Dispatch article, he stated that RobbGs experience as governor helped him while serving in the US Senate. I would therefore have to imagine that the same logic would have to apply to Gov. Warner as well.

So I suppose WarnerGs decision whether or not to run for re-election would ultimately rest upon who else declares that they are interested in the position. Obviously both parties have the experienced politicians, it's just a matter of whether or not they run. Nonetheless, the Times-Dispatch reports Virginians will know his answer around a year and a half prior to the 2008 election. The question is; Can his potential replacements wait six months before publicly expressing an interest?

Comments



It may depend as well on how he meshes with Jim Webb. (summercat - 11/17/2006 12:20:57 PM)
I believe he thinks highly of Jim.  And Jim may give him a lot to chew over.


Hmm (KCinDC - 11/17/2006 1:02:06 PM)
Maybe Webb will convince him of the moral bankruptcy of the Republican Party, and he'll switch parties.

Okay, maybe not.



Warner will retire.. (drmontoya - 11/17/2006 1:12:05 PM)
Because he trusts that Tom Davis, and or George Allen could take his seat. Furthermore, John Warner is getting very old. He obviously doesn't have the energy to run a very high spirited campaign in 2008 in tennis shoes against an engergetic popular Mark Warner.

I think the 08 Senate race will still be competetive in Virginia I just don't think John Warner will be on the ballot.



i can't see... (littlepunk - 11/17/2006 3:35:28 PM)
...mark warner running against john warner.  if john warner wants to run again, he will win again.  the question is, will he?  and i think that's anybody's guess at this point.

based on the article, we should know within 6 months.



Just think of the signs (Pat_AlexVA - 11/17/2006 4:16:43 PM)
"Warner for Senate!"

I think Warner retires, Allen and Davis duke it out in Primary.



allen vs. davis (drmontoya - 11/17/2006 7:23:27 PM)
in a primary? uh, davis you better watch out what you have written!!!! lol!!!


Judging by (libra - 11/17/2006 10:33:22 PM)
the following snippet (from Think Progress):

---------------------------------
Sen. John Warner (R-VA) announced

that he will seek the top Republican spot on the Environment and Public Works Committee, aiming to push aside outgoing Chairman James Inhofe (R-OK). Warner said, “As the senior Republican on the Senate EPW Committee, I intend to submit my name for election as the ranking minority member of that panel.” Incoming Chairwoman Barbara Boxer (D-CA) “has said that addressing global warming will be the committee’s top issue to address in the next Congress.”

UPDATE: Warner had a 14 percent rating from the League of Conservation Voters in the 109th Congress.
-----------------------------------------

he's not going to be working as much with Webb as we had thought. Doesn't it mean that he's giving up his ranking position of the Armed Services committee? And, since we're still in the midst of the Iraq mess, which is, probably, going to be the most important subject to be debated in that committee during the 110 Congress... does it suggest that he's slowing down a bit (semi-retirement, sort of)? Or that he simply doesn't want to be involved in hearings on the subject?

Anyway.. I guess I'll vote for "he retires" He's 79 now, will be 81 in '08... The prospect of anothr 6yrs in harness might be too much (my DH is 82 and perfectly fit. For his age. Since he turned 80 however, the aches and pains are worse as are memory lapses)



Age (KCinDC - 11/17/2006 10:47:14 PM)
Octogenarians vary a lot. It depends entirely on how healthy they are. Note that Akaka, Byrd, Inouye, Lautenberg, and Stevens are all older than Warner.


Stevens especially (libra - 11/19/2006 4:06:21 AM)
is proof that there should be a limit... He and his "internet tubes"... Byrd isn't much better. Haven's seen/heard the others to say one way or the other.

Warner isn't anywhere near there but I bet he's no longer near his mental peak, either. One's brain wears out same as all the other parts.



Not leaving Armed Forces (KCinDC - 11/17/2006 11:23:30 PM)
See here:
... now that I have concluded my Chairmanship of the Senate Armed Services Committee, in keeping with the six-year term limit established by Republican Conference rules. I intend to remain on the Armed Services Committee as the second-ranking Republican on that panel.