A Few Election Thoughts

By: Eric
Published On: 11/8/2006 3:05:50 PM

Feel free to throw in any random observations of your own.

In no particular order:

1. Wow, what a night.  See-sawed the whole evening.  I thought we had lost it for a while when Allen held a 20K lead and even pulled away a bit.  Just when I was preparing to accept that fate Jim bounced back.  All smiles from there.

2. Tom Davis is the biggest loser of the winners.  Yes, he won by 12, 56 to 44.  But in theory he should have won by much more. 
Davis is seen as a moderate in a moderately blue district and has decent record in congress.  Wolf outperformed Davis despite the fact that Davis had a massive monetary advantage over his opponent.  And the Davis team went berserk with an extremist smear campaign when they certainly didn't need it.  I don't think it will hurt him too much in his future efforts, but it will certainly raise quiet doubts.

3. The hate, er marriage, amendment clearly managed to confuse voters.  While most polls have consistently said voters/citizens are against gay marriage, they tend to have a neutral view toward civil unions.  Given that this amendment also bans civil unions and the wording of the second paragraph was obtuse, I've got to believe that people either didn't read it all or were confused.  So they voted for the paragraph they clearly understood, the first one.  And I have no doubt this was by design.

4. It's hard to tell if the hate amendment actually helped the GOP or not.  Clearly people were able to vote for the amendment and for Webb at the same time.  Maybe it did help, but it's clearly not the silver bullet they hoped it'd be.


Comments



Agree on #2 (Kryndis - 11/8/2006 3:14:21 PM)
Just wanted to say I completely agree on Davis.  I was rooting for Hurst though I was pretty well aware he wasn't going to win.  I saw those results and blurted out "Wow, it should never have been that close!"  It's tough to accept defeat, but it helps when you know Davis is really stinging right now wherever he is.

Heh, I'm running on caffeine pills alone at the moment, but it was totally worth it to stay up and watch all the results roll in last night! :-D



I think the Fairfax Democrats... (doctormatt06 - 11/8/2006 3:53:02 PM)
Need to begin a hunt for a strong challenger.

It seems like Democrats go into the 11th with around 43-45 percent of the vote automatically, the trick is getting that last 5%...let's get to work people.  This area is full of intelligent and bright people, many who would be great leaders.



Absolutely! (Kryndis - 11/8/2006 4:33:48 PM)
I couldn't agree more.  With that in mind, I'd like to announce my candidacy. :-)


The Feder loss may not be such a bad indicator. (Dan - 11/8/2006 4:04:32 PM)
Webb won the 10th, which is good.  This keeps the Kaine streak alive.  While Webb only won 4 of 11 districts, Northern Virginia is now all blue for state-wide races.

Feder made it to TV and became a "potential" race near the end.  However, Wolf is seen, by many, as a moderate - this perception increased by his endorsement from the Washington Post.  He has not been challenged in many years.  He had to spend money and defend himself for the first time in years.  In 2004 he dispatched his Democratic comptetitor with ease.  The Democrats are now better organized in the 10th, and the public is aware that Wolf is not the perfect fit for the district.  The 7th district result was not terrible.  Al Weed improved his numbers from 2004, although this probably does not make anyone feel much better about his loss.  Boucher won handily.  We made a lot of progress from 2004.  A lot of progress.  That should mean a lot to us all.



Hurst = Bright Future ; Davis = back to private sector (myoldkyhmdem - 11/8/2006 7:01:55 PM)
While everyone is celebrating the Dems big win today, I have been thinking about how Andrew Hurst should have a place in this big win.  He is an outstanding person and waged an inspiring, positive, energetic, grassroots and primarily volunteer driven campaign on a budget of $300,000.  In comparison, Tom Davis ran a $3 million negative smear campaign against Hurst utilizing paid staff (volunteers are not paid), extremely distasteful, printed attack mailers, robocalls and uncongressmanlike (doubt that is a word) behavior such as calling Hurst a "goofball."

While I am dissing Davis, I would like to take a moment to point out these things about the way Davis touts his accomplishments with regard to having done something about traffic problems and having widened 123:  Traffic throughout the 11th district still sucks and 123 in most areas is horrible - especially in Vienna, where Davis happens to live.

I smile as I contemplate the potential and likely losses of Tommy D's leadership positions and chairmanships and the fact that it will be difficult for his wife to sell access to her high powered congressman husband who has essentially been left with no power. Wonder how it feels to win, but know that you may end up Chair of the Congressional Birthday Celebration Committee? hee,hee 

Tom Davis doesn't have what it takes to win a Senate seat. I may be wrong, but my prediction for Tom Davis is 2 more years in Congress, a failed Senate attempt and then back to the private sector - under a rock somewhere - making tons of money doing something you can't prove is unethical or illegal, but at close examination leaves you questioning.

The future for Andy Hurst is limitless...I honestly think that he has what it takes to lead not only the 11th District of VA, but the State of VA and potentially the United States...yes, with experience and polish, I think he has the makings of a President. 

Andrew Hurst is someone you can be proud to have as friend, know as a person, work for as a volunteer and trust to work for you if elected to office.  I encourage everyone to make his acquaintance and to start saving money so the 11th District can proudly send him to Congress in 2 years!!! He doesn't take money from special interests or PACs etc... just from individuals.

Any way you look at it Andy Hurst is a winner and all of us who supported him are lucky to have had a candidate of his caliber to stand up to Tom Davis and tell him he didn't have a get back into Congress free pass. 



Kudos to Andy and Judy (Kindler - 11/8/2006 9:23:39 PM)
One of the tenets of Howard Dean's 50-state strategy is that you contest every race.  I can't tell you how disappointed I was the year (2000?) that there wasn't a Democrat on the ballot running against either Sen. Warner or Rep. Davis.  That's just plain surrender.

And I can't tell you how grateful I am to Judy Feder and Andy Hurst (as well as others in other districts) who worked so hard and gave so much to their battles.  Both of them made their opponents work very hard and spend a lot of money to win.  In doing so, they prevented this Republican money from being spent somewhere else. 

Judy and Andy are superb candidates who I would like to beg, here and now, to stay in the game and remain as active as possible in politics.  We need their energy, their talent and their toughness to continue to build a superior Virginia Democratic party.



Couldn't agree more (libra - 11/8/2006 10:12:27 PM)
with Kindler: a *big* Thank You to all Dems in VA who ran, even if they ended up as "also-ran" and to Dr Dean for his vision of "seeding" all 50 states, against all odds. Without them, we wouldn't have seen half as many Dem "blooms" this November morning.

Even where we lost, we now have a presence and visibility. And experience. And restored self-confidence, which we needed, badly. We all will do better next time, thanks to those who'd laid the foundations for our progress. And, next time, they won't be "also-rans", they'll be the winners.

Virginia is turning around -- here comes the sun :)

Sorry, I've been so bubbly all day, you could drink me like the best aged champaigne :)