Latest results for Sen.-Elect Jim Webb

By: Rob
Published On: 11/8/2006 3:01:27 PM

I'm not sure where these votes came from given that Raynor has still not reported (maybe the provisionals are coming in), but Sen.-Elect Webb's lead just increased again with 99.88% reporting: 7297 votes.

(UPDATE: The state's canvassing is making Allen's decision on asking for a recount even tougher as Sen.-Elect Webb's lead grows - 7352 votes.)

(UPDATE at 5:35 pm: The "Precincts Reporting" percentage has dropped to 94.6%.  But don't fret - this is because the website has added one or more "Conditional Votes" precincts in each county. These votes traditional max out in the double digits in the largest districts (e.g., Fairfax County had 48 conditional ballots cast compared to 272,100 total in 2005) and so won't effect the outcome much at all.  As of right now, Sen.-Elect Webb's lead holds steady at - 7346 votes.)


Comments



What is up with Raynor? (Kryndis - 11/8/2006 3:09:38 PM)
Seriously, how long does it take to count to 200 (my estimate of the number of people who voted there)?  Just call in your results already!

Also, are they ever going to fix the incorrect 3rd district page?  I'm really looking forward to seeing "100% reporting"!



Probably will be fixed with the official results. (Rob - 11/8/2006 3:12:02 PM)


Raynor - Isle of Wight (Timothy - 11/8/2006 6:59:19 PM)
This from the Virginia Pilot:

Jensen said a computer malfunction in Isle of Wight has delayed a final vote count for that county.

“The votes are fine,” she said. “It’s just the machines are locked up. The votes are in there.”

The precinct in limbo has 383 registered voters, said William Bell, secretary of the county’s electoral board. He said turnout for the county was about 57 percent, meaning the number of uncounted votes should be around 200.

Bell said a technician from Sequoia Voting Systems is expected to arrive Thursday to retrieve the votes from the jammed computer.

Final glitches in Loudoun, Rockingham and Fairfax city were ironed out Wednesday morning as registrars scrambled to double-check their vote totals.

http://content.hampt...



Good Info (Kryndis - 11/8/2006 7:19:47 PM)
Thanks for posting that and satisfying my curiosity.  It's much appreciated.

And my vote estimate was right on the money it would seem so that's pretty cool too. :-)



99.88% (DanG - 11/8/2006 4:22:02 PM)
Webb leading by 7372.


Still less (libra - 11/8/2006 4:52:23 PM)
than half percent. Darn! I did so hope that it would be over .5 and Allen would have to shell out for the recount if he wanted one...

All morning I've been getting elated messages from PA and NJ and Ohio and all of them were saying "well, what's with you guys? We've done our bit and you're still dithering around with the macaca"



Missing precincts (cvllelaw - 11/8/2006 4:49:58 PM)
In 2005, Raynor went for Kilgore, 93-76.

We're cool.



I'm just waiting to hear . . . (Kryndis - 11/8/2006 5:01:02 PM)
. . . that the reason Raynor is taking so long to report is because the Republican ballot box stuffing mechanism screwed up and they're trying to figure out which of the 10000 votes in a precinct with 383 registered voters is real. :-)


Raynor has a small voting population (Mike Smaha - 11/8/2006 5:00:46 PM)
Check out the total #s of votes cast:

2004 for President - 266
2005 for Gov. - 177

Tiny.  I figure Webb will get 1/3 of all the votes cast in Raynor anyway.  Allen is done!  Dems take the Senate and Congress!!!



I suppose if I were Allen... (ericy - 11/8/2006 5:07:58 PM)
I would hold off until all precincts had reported and then decide what to do.

I don't know what the holdup is with the remaining three precincts.  They aren't enough to make a difference, but how hard could it be to count these things anyways?

You can see vote totals for the missing precincts from 2004 here:

Raynor: http://sbe.virginiai...

and Roberts B:
http://sbe.virginiai...

In 2004, Raynor had 260 votes, Roberts B had 1628, and Central Absentee Precinct had 0.  These are Kerry+Bush, so I don't see how Allen has a prayer.



Uh-oh (Bobbi - 11/8/2006 6:05:30 PM)
What's going on with the SBE site?  All day they showed 99.88% of precincts reporting, now it's at 94.57%. 

Bobbi in Roanoke



Uh - oh (Tink - 11/8/2006 6:07:29 PM)

I was just coming in here to ask the same thing?  There's suddenly more ballots to be counted? 


Canvassing? (Kryndis - 11/8/2006 6:09:58 PM)
I don't know exactly how the canvassing process works, but I'm guessing (hoping?) this is just something to do with that.  I find it hard to believe that a bunch of ballots just appeared out of nowhere all across the state . . .


Provisional ballots? (Tink - 11/8/2006 6:13:51 PM)
Maybe this represents the provisional ballots that the lawyers are reviewing and contesting?  Seems like a lot to me. 

But if you look at precints - I looked at Fairfax County - the 100% reporting is now 90 something in all the precints.



Yes - that's exactly right. (Rob - 11/8/2006 6:33:41 PM)


I have no idea! (Rob - 11/8/2006 6:21:09 PM)


Provisional Ballots (Clemgo3165 - 11/8/2006 6:27:05 PM)
It's the provisional ballots - if you click on details under the results, and keep clicking all the way down to results by precinct, you'll see that the SBE has added a new precinct to each district for the provisional vote. 

Anybody have an idea of how many provisional ballots there are?



?!?!? (KathyinBlacksburg - 11/8/2006 6:35:06 PM)
Had the same question. 

Rob, have you done any analyses on who is more likely to need a provisional?



No particular bias here (wweidemann - 11/8/2006 7:00:13 PM)
Provisional ballots are for voters who claim to be registered but are not in the polling book for some reason. Maybe they moved and didn't update; maybe DMV lost the application; perhaps don't have correct ID after registering by mail; applied for absentee ballot and never received it; etc. Not many provisional ballots are cast because poll judges make every effort to work it out so everyone can vote on the machine. In Shreve Precinct yesterday there were 915 voters on the machine and only one provisional ballot.


MSNBC just reported a +3000 vote shift coming (msn1 - 11/8/2006 6:54:28 PM)
Some precinct swapped the two vote totals, should have been Allen: 1900, Webb: 400, but had them switched originally. This would add 1500 votes to Allen, subtract 1500 from Webb. Has anyone else heard this?


I don't think he was "reporting" that (phriendlyjaime - 11/8/2006 7:02:12 PM)
and by HE I mean David Schuster, who I met today and swooned over when he turned his back.  :)

I believe it was hypothetical or a rumor.



And even if it *were* true (libra - 11/8/2006 9:21:56 PM)
ie, Webb loses 1500 and Allen picks 'em up, for a 3000 diff... It's still a long way to Tipperary and a 7+thou deficit on Allen's side.

I think we're cool :)



Election tally (ViennaVA - 11/8/2006 7:13:53 PM)
SBE out with 100% counted:

Webb 1,173,755 49.55%
Allen 1,166,408 49.24%



NO. (phriendlyjaime - 11/8/2006 7:17:38 PM)
Please look again.  The canvassing reports are not all in yet.


I got fooled too (Kryndis - 11/8/2006 7:22:57 PM)
For whatever reason the main page just went to 100% for a couple of minutes.  You had to click to one of the subpages to see the actual current results.  Fixed now, but why must you torture us SBE?


Lou Dobbs (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 7:47:31 PM)
When doing his promo for his show, Blitzer asked him about VA and he said if Allen was gracious and interested in doing the best for the nation he would not request a recount and concede.


National Journal's Hotline Says There's Pressure On Allen to Concede (PM - 11/8/2006 7:54:51 PM)
http://hotlineblog.n...

November 08, 2006
Republicans Will Pressure Allen... Soon
Top Republicans in Washington will give Sen. George Allen a few days to take stock of his legal and political options before beginning to pressure him to concede to James Webb. Senior Republican officials and White House aides believe that Webb won the race. Several outside advisers to Allen want him to make the decision quickly; others in his campaign want to make sure that there's no chance a cache of new votes will turn up. One question: when will (will?) the AP call the race? [MARC AMBINDER]



Great Question (Timothy - 11/8/2006 7:58:17 PM)
I've been wondering why AP won't declare the race also. They have the same numbers we do. Barring some major counting error, mathematically there is no way for Allen to win.  So why won't AP declare?


RedState comment to George Allen: Don't (PM - 11/8/2006 8:03:04 PM)
http://www.redstate....

Let's Not Re-Do Florida in 2000
A Message for Senator Allen
By Leon H Wolf

As we sit now, James Webb has a lead of approximately 8,000 votes over George Allen in Virginia, with votes yet to be counted. Insofar as there are outstanding absentee ballots, they should of course all be counted before Allen throws in the towel. If the final margin of victory is small enough that it triggers some sort of automatic recount, then I am all for the automatic recount. There's merit to doing a once-over and making sure that the thing was done right.

But there's also merit to the notion of finality when it comes to the electoral process.

Read on.

At some point, there must ultimately be a winner and a loser - the stability of Democracy depends upon it. Which is why, when I hear that the RNC is mobilizing lawyers and publicists and whatnot to fight a protracted battle down in Virginia, I have to cringe.

No one understands the potential consequences of losing Virginia (which will probably mean losing the Senate) more acutely than I do. But that doesn't mean that throwing a hissy over the way things turned out is either (a) going to do any good, or (b) make us look any better than the Democrats did in 2000 (How did Florida work out for them in the 2004 Presidential election, by the way?).

Senator Allen, you ran a truly horrendous campaign for which you are largely responsible. If you lose, this will be the reason for your loss. Please accept it graciously.



Good job (Quizzical - 11/8/2006 8:15:37 PM)
Thanks to all contributing to this blog!

When I went to bed when Webb was around 12,000 votes down, and when I got up he was 8000 votes up.  So thanks to Arlington County, Alexandria City, and Fairfax County, for coming through in a big way.

Also, I saw on the news last night a story about how voters in Prince William County had to wait three or more hours to vote in some polling places.  Thanks for hanging tough there.

 



We owe a big thank you to.... (Tink - 11/8/2006 8:38:29 PM)

Michael J Fox.  I do think he made a difference in Virginia, Missouri and possibly Maryland. 


not supposed to be blogging.. (drmontoya - 11/8/2006 9:15:06 PM)
but, hey this race is officially not over so..

I have to ask!!!!!

who took pictures any links?!?!?!?! please!



msnbc says AP project Webb as the winner! (tuscumbia - 11/8/2006 9:46:57 PM)