A quick analysis of why Allen will still be down votes when the first round of counting is done. I'm giving Allen the wildly optimistic (for him) turnout margins of 2004:1. Outstanding precincts in James City County would give him 1466. Berkley C is a new Republican leaning precinct added after '04 - I'll give Allen an extra 500 votes for that precinct, which is very inflated for a polling place that only gave Kilgore +165 votes.
2. Raynor in Isle of Wight would be 96 more votes for Allen.
3. Loudoun County absentees would be another 729 votes.
4. Fairfax City absentees would take back 94 votes for Webb.
So, the totals (using Bush/Cheney spreads) would only be about 2700 votes. Webb would still be up about 4160 votes (given his current 6859 lead with 99.8% reporting). That's looking like Allen's pipe dream scenario - that he capture these Bush-like margins.
If we got slightly more realistic by factoring in the 2005 results - lower turnout and lower percentages for the Republican - Allen's gap would be wider. For starters, Loudoun County absentees added almost 730 votes to his dream scenario while going heavily for Bush. In 2005, the absentees actually favored the Democrat by a ten point margin - giving Tim Kaine a 182 vote margin. This year, the rest of Loudoun went for Webb by 50-49%, so it's hard to imagine that Allen will actually gain on Webb based on votes for here in '06).
So, it's just a matter of how many votes Allen will have to make up in the recount.
(UPDATE: Webb's lead just climbed to 7146 with 99.84% reporting. I'm not sure where that +287 came from because the new counties that reported added 801 for Allen by my count. Regardless, Allen's pipe dream scenario isn't coming true - Loudoun absentees broke for Webb +131.)
(UPDATE: I'm wondering if a glitch isn't adding James City County votes to the overall total - that would subtract 2000 votes from Webb's margin. Remaining precincts are James City County VA-03 Absentees, Raynor in Isle of Wight, and Fairfax City absentees.)
(UPDATE: I'm almost convinced that Allen's margin of victory in James City County hasn't been added to the overall total. We may be facing a 1984 vote correction to Webb's lead right now. James City County VA-03 Absentees added zero votes in 2004, Raynor in Isle of Wight added +266 for the GOP, and Fairfax City absentees subtracted 94 from the GOP. We may want to expect a maximum of Allen shaving 2344 from Webb lead.)
(UPDATE: I'm not as convinced anymore about the whole James City County issue. It appears that something similar happened in 2004 and 2005. Stay tuned.... though we're not talking about enough votes to change the outcome.)
(UPDATE: EUREKA! I've solved the James City County mystery. I'll explain in a new post).
The party last night at the Sheraton was such a roller-coaster ride that my nerves are at an all time supercharge. Never thought it would be such a nail-biter, until 2 a.m.!
The faithful did stay to the end, we just hugged each other when Webb came out and proclaimed VICTORY. He ALL nearly collapsed into cabs and went home thinking that in a few hours the recount would begin, but that Webb will still prevail. How do you recount a hanging Computer Voting Machine? My point is that the recount may be very swift, like before January.
If all holds up, we are off to the swearing in.
kc.
Total - 2,416
Will we know by COB today if they retabulate? How long did it take for Deeds' retabulating.....new to Virginia.
2. I don't know when they'll be done with the first round of counting. The recount would happen near the end of Nov. (I think I heard on CNN that Virginia law allows a loser to ask for a recount if the vote is within a certain spread - which is true here - and after the official certification on Nov. 27th).
What I found is:
James City County: 42,978 Registered Voters, total voting of 19,874 with 46.24% turnout.
Five precincts (Two absentee precincts C001, C003, Berkeley C, Stonehouse B, Roberts B) have not yet reported. There is an ambiguity in that the Summary Results for all Virginia results shows only 2 precincts in James City County not reporting while the Summary Results for James City County show 4 precincts not reporting -- absentees appear to be counted as one precinct. In the James City Vote Totals, there are two absentee precincts and Roberts B is reported twice - once showing vote results and once showing not yet reported.
The Nov. 2005 (last year) results for the non reporting precincts are: 1072 Absentee votes of which 505 were for Kilgore and 470 were for Kaine (3.6% difference); Berkeley C has 2,724 registered voters of which 712 were for Kilgore and 616 were for Kaine (7.25% difference); Stonehouse B has 4363 registered voters of which 1082 voted for Kilgore and 918 voted for Kaine (8.2% difference); Roberts B has 2293 registered voters of which 672 voted for Kilgore and 533 voted for Kaine (11.5% difference).
Estimated votes in three non-reporting precincts are 6,472 (based on 9380 registered voters and a 69% turnout and assuming that Roberts B is not counted. If Roberts B is taken out then estimated votes is 4890). Combining the 6,472 votes with the 1072 absentees (same from last year) yields 4534 votes not yet counted (5962 votes if Roberts B is not included). The 11 precincts reporting favored Allen by 52.32% to Webb 46.66% (5.66% difference)(this is from the Summary Results James City County). Allen could pick up between 337 to 427 votes assuming a difference of 5.66%.
1. I think you're looking at older numbers. Right now, only Central Absentee Precinct (C003) and Roberts B (0502). Now, that absentee "precinct" reported zero votes in both '05 and '04. And Roberts appears to be a duplicate (also backed by '05 and '04 results). So there may be no more votes coming out of this county.
2. The total votes cast in this county is 25,918. But, if you look at the sum of votes cast for VA 03, it looks like the total doesn't account for the 25,918 (add 'em up and see.)
3. On the contrary, it looks like the same thing is showing up in the official results of past elections. So, perhaps some how they've been accounted for.
So, I'm not sure what's going on, but be on notice that perhaps there are 2000 votes lurking out there for Allen.
View Results by “District”
Totals 1,164,767
View Results by “Locality”
Totals 1,164,767
Can we lose, or not?