Bleary eyed 6:30 a.m. update - Webb still leads

By: Rob
Published On: 11/8/2006 7:34:56 AM

The latest numbers from SBE, with 99.75% reporting:

  J H Webb Jr  Democratic  1,170,686  49.58%
  G F Allen  Republican  1,162,327  49.22%
  G G Parker  Independent Green  26,098  1.11%

Webb's lead is 8359 or .30%

(UPDATE: Webb's lead has shrunk to 6859 with 99.8% reporting)


Comments



recount? (pvogel - 11/8/2006 7:42:20 AM)
For allen to win the recount,  some serious karma would have to occur.
I predict that any recount will increase webbs lead


Agreed! (Nichole - 11/8/2006 7:47:10 AM)
I agree. I can't say more because I just woke up from a tiny amount of sleep!


I'm hoping the last few votes ... (Rob - 11/8/2006 7:57:13 AM)
push Webb outside the .5% number.  Probably wishful thinking.


Ah, what sweet music to my ears! (Matusleo - 11/8/2006 7:56:47 AM)
This has been a great election night, and this morning had some of the best news of all, Webb declaring victory!  Sweet!

Great job to all my friends at Raising Kaine.  The mainstream media may not want to admit the part you played in this election, but I for sure know you were instrumental in getting the facts out and stopping Allen's slime in its tracks! Kudos to all, and especially to what is certianly looking like Sen-elect Jim Webb!

Now lets go and win this recount thing!



The RK team has been amazing !!! (Used2Bneutral - 11/8/2006 8:02:55 AM)
"Politics At The Speed of Life"

Now we watch our backsides for the real dirty tricks.......



Praying for that .5% (d'moore - 11/8/2006 8:09:42 AM)
Hope the acceptance speech is on here soon as stupid MSNBC was covering Arnold instead of the most important acceptance speech of the night.

Agreed on the kudos for Raising Kaine. You created a community where none had existed and made us  all feel a part of something bigger than our individual efforts. As I told Lowell a month ago, I don't think Webb could have done it without Raising Kaine.



im off to florida (pvogel - 11/8/2006 8:34:41 AM)
from the govt webb site 6 precincts not reporting, here they are

LOUDOUN COUNTY - details  i precint tiny for webb

JAMES CITY COUNTY - details  2 precints, big for allen

ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY - details  1 precinct, for allen

HALIFAX COUNTY - details  1 precinct  allen leads

allen will gain 500 to 1000 votes from the missing precincts, and will have to make up 7000 votes on the recount.

This is great news!!!!! Congratulations to all who worked hard on this campaign, and congrats to all who voted.



it's mostly write-ins (mk - 11/8/2006 8:44:47 AM)
Isle of Wight has one district out -- otherwise, the outstanding "precincts" are absentee ballots in Halifax (voting 58/39 Allen), James City County (voting 53/45 Allen), Loudoun (voting 50/48 Webb) and Fairfax City (56/43 Webb).

My guess is that Webb's margin will stay the same or slightly increase.  There probably are a lot more absentee ballots in Loudoun and Fairfax City than in the other locales.



I agree w/analysis above (teacherken - 11/8/2006 9:33:38 AM)
and it will be in range for the free recount

but remember -  there is no autmoatic recount -  there is a provision for judicial oversight.  I was with Creigh Deeds last Thusrday when he was epxlaining this to Micahel Shear of the Post over the phone



Tester narrowly ahead with 99% counted (PM - 11/8/2006 9:45:47 AM)

  Tester
  190,486 49%
  Burns
(Incumbent)
  188,900 48%
  Jones
  9,990 3%


Updated tallies (ViennaVA - 11/8/2006 10:29:52 AM)
demhokie posted this at notlarrysabato:

Webb leads Allen by 6,859 votes as of 9:01 with 99.80% votes counted.

Allen could pick up about another 377 to 497 votes once the remaining non-reporting precincts report in.

The remaining non-reporting precincts are:

Halifax County (21,225 Registered voters with 47% turnout).
One precinct (Absentee C005) not reported. There were 242 absentee voters in Halifax in Nov. 2005 (last year)(see Excel spreadsheet downloaded from Va State Board of Elections). The 21 precincts reporting favored Allen by 58.87% to Webb 39.84% (difference 19.03%). Allen could pick up 46 votes assuming 242 absentee voters favoring Allen by 19.03%.

Isle of Wright County (22,861 registered voters with 53.35% turnout).
One precinct (Raynor 0505) not reported. The Nov. 2005 (last year) results for the 378 Ranyor registered voters went for Kilgore 93 to 76 for Kaine. (8% difference) The 12 precincts reporting favored Allen by 57.26% to Webb 41.40% (difference 15.86%). Allen could pick up 30 to 60 votes assuming 378 absentee voters voting in favor of Allen by 8% to 15.86%.

James City County: (42,978 Registered Voters with 46.24% turnout)
Five precincts (Two absentee precincts C001, C003, Berkeley C, Stonehouse B, Roberts B) have not yet reported. (There is an ambiguity in that the Summary Results for all Virginia results shows only 2 precincts in James City County not reporting while the Summary Results for James City County show 4 precincts not reporting -- absentees appear to be counted as one precinct. In the James City Vote Totals, there are two absentee precincts and Roberts B is reported twice - once showing vote results and once showing not yet reported.). Total votes for James City County reported on Summary Results for all of Virginia and 19,875 total votes reported on Summary Results for James City County. ) The Nov. 2005 (last year) results for the non reporting precincts are: 1072 Absentee votes of which 505 were for Kilgore and 470 were for Kaine (3.6% difference); Berkeley C has 2,724 registered voters of which 712 were for Kilgore and 616 were for Kaine (7.25% difference); Stonehouse B has 4363 registered voters of which 1082 voted for Kilgore and 918 voted for Kaine (8.2% difference); Roberts B has 2293 registered voters of which 672 voted for Kilgore and 533 voted for Kaine (11.5% difference). Estimated votes in three non-reporting precincts are 6,472 (based on 9380 registered voters and a 69% turnout and assuming that Roberts B is not counted. If Roberts B is taken out then estimated votes is 4890). Combining the 6,472 votes with the 1072 absentees (same from last year) yields 4534 votes not yet counted (5962 votes if Roberts B is not included). The 11 precincts reporting favored Allen by 52.32% to Webb 46.66% (5.66% difference)(this is from the Summary Results James City County). Allen could pick up between 337 to 427 votes assuming a difference of 5.66%.

Loudoun County (152,804 registered voters with 50% turnout).
One precinct (Absentee C010) not reported. In Nov. 2005 (last year), Loundon had 2690 absentee votes with 1203 for Kilgore and 1385 for Kaine. The 57 reported precincts favored Webb by 50.04% to Allen 48.69% (difference 1.35%). Webb could pick up 36 votes assuming 2690 absentee voters favoring Webb by 1.35%.



Any updates on Tester (kevinceckowski - 11/8/2006 10:54:42 AM)
this a.m.?


Retabulating Montana Underway (kevinceckowski - 11/8/2006 11:03:24 AM)
http://www.washingto...

0900 this morning.



Webb and On To Victory (seamusotoole - 11/8/2006 11:23:45 AM)
I'm totally bleary eyed this AM and feel like I've been run over by a bus but am totally psyched that Jim is going to pull this off.  Larry Byrne is his field operations person and let me tell you I'd trust Larry with numbers any day.  Remember Webb is a straight shooter.  He wouldn't have told us he was confident he'd be declared a winner if he wasn't real sure.

Event last night was amazing.  I was sitting in the bar about 12:00 midnight when people were watching a laptop.  Suddenly everyone went crazy when the election shifted to Webb.  Everyone went running back into the ballroom ecstatic.

Lowell and you bloggers.  You all rock.  Keep on Crashing the Gate.  I'm so glad I've gotten to meet so many wonderful people on this campaign.  I think once Webb is declared the winner we should have a VICTORY PARTY again and again and again.  Will try and post some pictures.

Mary Lee