Home stretch Senate results thread
By: Rob
Published On: 11/8/2006 1:04:04 AM
The original thread is getting unwieldy (ease up on the refresh button!) Well finish the result off here:
LAST UPDATE FOR THE NIGHT: It's 1:00 am, and the numbers have been stuck for a while. I'm envisioning poll workers ripping through thousands of absentee ballots right now. Also, don't forget the provisional ballots! And then the recount, the litigation ... this one will still be up in the air tomorrow morning and beyond! And I see Lowell is back on the case. Nonetheless, it's nice to be going to bed with Webb in the lead!
34th update: I'm getting sleepy. Kos calls it for Webb.
33rd update: Dems have taken 21 house seats so far.
32nd update: Ah, there it is. Webb takes his first lead in a long time. 2000 votes and .08% - inside the recount margin for now. 99.26% reporting (update 30 was either an error by me or the SBE - we'll never know).
31st update: Kos and TPM are saying Webb takes a lead, looking at CNN's numbers. I'll continue to report the SBE's numbers.
30th update: 99.26% reporting. Same spread, about 40 more votes for Allen.
29th update: Outstanding votes are from
- VA 05 absentees (slight Allen lean)
- VA 10, 11 absentees (slight Webb lean)
- Virginia Beach absentees (toss-up)
- Richmond City VA 03/07 absentees and two other precincts (heavy Webb lean)
- Raynard precinct in Isle of Wight (heavy Allen lean but small numbers)
- VA 05 absentees (heavy Allen lean)
- VA 08 absentees (heavy Allen lean)
- Little River in Loudoun county (toss up)
- Potomac Falls in Loudoun county (slight lean Webb)
Based on the leans and population numbers, I can see why both camps are confident.
28th update: Same spread with 99.18%. Remaining counties update coming...
27th update: with 99.1% counting, it's a virtual tie. A spread of .07% or 1757 votes.
Comments
I'll post my CNN update here (PM - 11/8/2006 1:11:39 AM)
RACE
Webb
1,141,052 50%
Allen
(Incumbent)
1,138,676 49%
With 99%, CNN has Webb with a 2,400 vote lead -- do they have some absentee ballots the state does not?
Also, NBC now projecting new house will be 235-200
are they getting an AP feed? (teacherken - 11/8/2006 1:23:39 AM)
state website shows Allen ahead by just under 2K votes.
whose absentees are still out? Does anyone have a clear idea?
Fairfax and Arlington, it seems. (Lowell - 11/8/2006 1:24:21 AM)
Some in Richmond as well? Others?
ugh!!!! (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 1:13:24 AM)
UGH!!!!
There is going to be a recount but I just want to see Webb ahead before it begins.
As close as they come... (Kindler - 11/8/2006 1:14:24 AM)
Whoever comes out on top, we're getting into recount territory. Does anyone know VA's rules for recounts?
MSNBC is reporting that in VA (lwumom - 11/8/2006 1:17:40 AM)
if the vote is within .5% the state pays for the recount, but any difference greater, the losing candidate has to pay for. We'll see!
Here's my question: (mkfox - 11/8/2006 1:15:31 AM)
If these numbers stay the same, should Gail Parker be blamed for costing Webb a victory?
should Gail Parker be blamed for costing Webb a victory? (libra - 11/8/2006 3:15:55 AM)
mkfox. In my opinion -- defnitely yes. That's why I've been wanting to wring her scrawny neck since the first returns began to stream in. It's the 1.1% that would have put Webb beyond the recount hassles.
Curse on the wooly thinkers, who can't see beyond their own pet project. I don't even draw any pleasure from being right, when "I told you so" last night (or was it the night before?), whe y'all celebrated her semi-endorsement of Webb. If Allen wins -- even if only to the extent of hassling us for weeks about recounts -- she's the culprit.
At02:01, with 99.63% returns, it's:
Webb 49.56, Allen 49.23.
With Ms Gail -- bless her heart -- picking up; she's now at 1.11 from the 1.10 she's held for hours...
WEBB WILL WIN BY 146 VOTES! (Steve Nelson - 11/8/2006 1:21:44 AM)
I have a calculated prediction...
Final results:
Webb: 1,150,211
Allen: 1,150,065
It's based on the remaining precincts assuming that the percentages don't change.
Email me if you want a copy of it.
Steve Nelson m@secretagents.com
Stole 3000 votes from Parker! (Steve Nelson - 11/8/2006 1:34:34 AM)
We just stole some votes from Parker in Fairfax. I'm now predicting 3,306 votes ahead for Webb!
New Predictions:
Webb: 1,157,465
Allen: 1,154,159
Splain Please (seveneasypeaces - 11/8/2006 1:38:35 AM)
explanation.... (Steve Nelson - 11/8/2006 1:52:12 AM)
As of 12:44am, there are 10 counties with uncounted votes:
ARLINGTON COUNTY
FAIRFAX COUNTY
HALIFAX COUNTY
ISLE OF WIGHT COUNTY
JAMES CITY COUNTY
LOUDOUN COUNTY
PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY
FAIRFAX CITY
RICHMOND CITY
VIRGINIA BEACH CITY
Very little will change with percentages within each of the precincts:
(R) (D)
0.26 0.73
0.40 0.59
0.59 0.40
0.57 0.41
0.53 0.46
0.49 0.50
0.48 0.51
0.43 0.56
0.26 0.72
0.52 0.46
Each county has had a specific number of votes cast:
65974.00
329,800
9989.00
12197
25918
72,454
82,860
7,456
49,408
49,408
There are only a certain number of remaining precints uncounted:
0.02
0.00
0.05
0.08
0.13
0.05
0.04
0.14
0.06
0.01
Multiply those all together and you can predictions for each candidate:
(R) (D)
344.516228 958.866116
580.738224 854.999904
267.5638557 181.0726008
537.0697692 388.3110102
1727.110725 1479.26985
1823.115805 1875.183423
1778.480525 1882.791322
454.7393523 598.3636838
760.8693658 2103.648369
297.5621504 263.5842688
---------------------------
Predicted new votes: 8571.77 10586.09
current votes: 1,146,952 1,148,750
Sum those up and add em to the current votes and you get:
(R) (D)
1,155,524 1,159,336
Wow! (Lowell - 11/8/2006 1:53:19 AM)
My head hurts! :)
Have a beer. (loboforestal - 11/8/2006 2:08:30 AM)
You deserve it.
Automating this (Steve Nelson - 11/8/2006 2:15:00 AM)
I'm working on automating this. It'll grab the data from SBE and repredict the final vote.
(i can't sleep!)
Steve
CNN * sbe, electioninteractive (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 1:23:00 AM)
They are the same tally of votes and they are not matching..
3k are given to Webb on CNN yet those 3k are in the Allen column on the interactive election returns website.
Anybody know what's going on?
Absolutely no clue. (Lowell - 11/8/2006 1:23:36 AM)
Voter Intimidation (seveneasypeaces - 11/8/2006 1:29:40 AM)
http://msnbc.msn.com...
This is one thing going on.
I was listening to Pacifica and they said the longer results take to come back the more in favor of rethuglicans. It gives them more time to change machines. In the races called early tonight (I don't remember which ones) the rethuglicans are requesting the machines. They are mad that they were called so fast. Doesn't fit into their fraud plan. In all the races we've been traumatized with I don't think the democrats ever acted so indignant.
hmmm (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 1:30:31 AM)
well, I sure hope it's "user" error or the election returns are flipped on that site.
ok, the interactive site just flipped Webb.
Whew.
My biggest concern now is the military ballots.
Nova Absentee should be for Webb (seveneasypeaces - 11/8/2006 1:37:03 AM)
And If the active military has any sense they will vote for the person who has always been on their side. They just need to feel safe (privacy) in doing it. I hope they muster the courage.
BTW Lowell (TurnVirginiaBlue - 11/8/2006 1:35:15 AM)
I thought I'd just say how wonderful of a job you have done in terms of creating momentum community and a "building up" people to support Webb.
Thanks, but it's all you guys! (Lowell - 11/8/2006 1:40:21 AM)
Something the right-wingers will never understand; this is a COMMUNITY blog. "It takes a village..." :)
They will never get it (seveneasypeaces - 11/8/2006 1:49:23 AM)
There was a group of us tonight outside the poll. A rethug came up and said how much are they paying you. I said they aren't paying us, we are grass roots. He said I don't believe that, what are they paying you. I said for crying out loud. Someone else said something. He walked away saying they pay you. He couldn't understand why so many people would stand in the rain with smiles on their faces without $$$$ being involved.
We even had a lawyer assigned to the precinct because it was generally a poorer one. And we did have some things that happened but she jumped on them.
You da man !!! (loboforestal - 11/8/2006 2:06:14 AM)
Big congrats to you, Lowell !!!
Absentees are everything! (Leaves on the Current - 11/8/2006 1:24:30 AM)
Have they been counted or not? I can't tell from the info I have, and teacherken, who was in the ballroom tonight, was under the impression that absentees had not yet been counted.
Does anyone have a definitive answer on this???
Absent versus early (seveneasypeaces - 11/8/2006 1:32:39 AM)
Virginia early voting was done on the computers (northern va for sure). Those totals should be already included. The mailed ballots will take handling so they are probably not counted.
Looks like (lwumom - 11/8/2006 1:26:47 AM)
Arlington, Loudon, Fairfax are the hold outs. CNN is showing Webb ahead!! It just depends on the margin of VICTORY as to whether Felix asks for a recount. Good luck! I'm hoping for US all!!!
Gail Parker? (PM - 11/8/2006 1:27:00 AM)
I think those are almost all protest (we didn't like either one) or mistake votes
Wow. We're going to have a female Speaker of the House!
And you wonder -- where the hell are those 20 precinct boards. What, did they call out for pizza and had a few beers and things just kind of drifted off?
Ah, the FBI investigation (PM - 11/8/2006 1:30:13 AM)
There will be lots of pressure on the FBI and DOJ to look into the election shenanigans now, because of the closeness
Some people on the GOP side had best be prepared for some legal bills
Be nice if (libra - 11/8/2006 3:21:24 AM)
Allen had to answer questions from jail... No recounts :)
So did the gov't (the SBE) or the private sector (CNN and NBC) (PM - 11/8/2006 1:33:41 AM)
produce the more accurate result? (NBC has been using the same numbers that CNN has been reporting.)
A little test of the old public versus private efficiency theory.
The Creative 8th (seveneasypeaces - 11/8/2006 2:07:32 AM)
Hey maybe it is a typo but you say above that VA 08 is heavy Allen. Not true. It contains Arlington, Alexandria, Falls Church and Reston.