Below are Pew statistics from Sunday, November 5 which say "Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign's Final Days Democrats, Hold 47%-43% Lead Among Likely Voters."
I am also very concerned about this news:
http://www.newsmax.c...
Sunday, Nov. 5, 2006 1:17 a.m. EST
Polls: Surge for GOP in Montana, Rhode Island, Tennessee
Republicans are seeing a last minute surge, according to a series of Mason-Dixon polls for McClatchy Newspapers-MSNBC.
"Twelve new state-by-state polls show a surprise shift in the political battleground to the north as Republican incumbents clawed their way back in two states frequently written off as lost to them GÇö Montana and Rhode Island," McClatchy newspapers reported early Sunday. Republican Sen. Conrad Burns is now in a dead heat with Democrat Jon Tester, both tied with 47 percent of the vote. Burns had been trailing badly just weeks ago.
And another major surprise is in Rhode Island. Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee is actually leading Democrat challenger Sheldon Whitehouse by one point, 46-45. Recent news reports had suggested Chafee, lagging in the polls, was heading for defeat.
Other encouraging news for the GOP comes from Tennessee. The most recent poll has Republican Bob Corker leading Democrat Harold Ford 50-38 percent.
All the polls were surveyed between Tuesday and Friday.
"The Senate is very much up for grabs,GÇ¥ said Brad Coker, the pollster for Mason-Dixon. "The big change is that senators Burns and Chafee have come back to life.GÇ¥
I am further concerned about these statistics quoted below which in my opinion get back to how that Bush and the GOP control most of the media and that Democrats are doing next to nothing to do anything about it:
"In addition, Sen. John Kerry's "botched joke" about the war in Iraq attracted enormous attention. Fully 84% of voters say they have heard a lot or a little about Kerry's remarks -¡ with 60% saying they have heard a lot. By comparison, just 26% say they have heard a lot about President Bush's statement that he will keep Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of defense until he leaves office in 2009. Most voters say Kerry's statement is not a serious consideration in their vote, but 18% of independent voters say it did raise serious doubts about voting for a Democratic candidate."
This will show you how powerful that the GOP GOTV juggernaut that we are up against is:
RNC E MAIL: "Get-out-the-Vote from Home" / "The biggest midterm GOTV in history"
This is also cross posted with several comments and illustrations on Gen. Wes Clark's blog:
Please forward this on because it is very important that we take nothing for granted in this election regardless of what any polls look like, turn out every Democratic voter that we can, and try to keep any disillusioned Republicans who we talk to at home on Tuesday if they will not vote for a Democrat!
Mitch Dworkin
http://securingameri...
ANALYSIS: The 2006 Elections are "An Accountability Moment!
http://securingameri...
ANALYSIS: Direct answers to the GOP using fear to scare their base to the polls!
http://securingameri...
ANALYSIS: Keeping moderate Republicans at home if they won't vote for a Democrat
http://securingameri...
VIDEO & DOCUMENTATION: Bush "used evangelicals just to get their votes"
http://www.securinga...
Listen to Gen. Wes Clark fight for Dems on Sean Hannity's radio program: An excellent example for all of us to follow and what we all need to be doing to help fight against extreme right wing Neocon smear propaganda which will help our local candidates to win their races!
http://securingameri...
Gen. Wes Clark's endorsement of Jim Webb against George Allen
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Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign's Final Days
Democrats Hold 47%-43% Lead Among Likely Voters
Released: November 5, 2006
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Summary of Findings
About this Survey
Detailed Demographic Tables
Topline Questionnaire
Summary of Findings
A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.
The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.
The survey suggests that the judgment of undecided voters will be crucial to the outcome of many congressional races this year. As many as 19% of voters now only lean to a candidate or are flatly undecided. The Democrats hold a 44% to 35% lead among committed voters. But the race is more even among voters who are less strongly committed to a candidate; those who only lean to a candidate divide almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats (5% lean Republican/4% lean Democrat).
Republican gains in the new poll reflect a number of late-breaking trends. First, Republicans have become more engaged and enthused in the election than they had been in September and October. While Democrats continue to express greater enthusiasm about voting than do Republicans, as many Republican voters (64%) as Democratic voters (62%) now say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election. About a month ago, Democratic voters were considerably more likely than GOP voters to say they were giving a lot of thought to the election (by 59%-50%). As a result, Republicans now register a greater likelihood of voting than do Democrats, as is typical in mid-term elections.
The Republicans also have made major gains, in a relatively short time period, among independent voters. Since early this year, the Democratic advantage in the generic House ballot has been built largely on a solid lead among independents. As recently as mid-October, 47% of independent voters said they were voting for the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 29% who favored the Republican. Currently, Democrats lead by 44%-33% among independent voters.
Notably, President Bush's political standing has improved in the final week before the election. Bush's job approval rating among registered voters has risen from 37% in early October, to 41% in the current survey. Mirroring the GOP's gains among independent voters, Bush's rating among this crucial group of swing voters now stands at 35%, its highest point this year.
The final pre-election survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted among 2,369 registered voters from Nov. 1-4, finds that voter appraisals of the national economy also have improved. In the current poll, 44% rate it as excellent or good, compared with 36% who held that view in mid-October. Republicans and independents have a much better view of the economy than they did just a few weeks ago. Among independent voters, 41% rate the economy as good or excellent, compared with 29% in mid-October.
In addition, Sen. John Kerry's "botched joke" about the war in Iraq attracted enormous attention. Fully 84% of voters say they have heard a lot or a little about Kerry's remarks -¡ with 60% saying they have heard a lot. By comparison, just 26% say they have heard a lot about President Bush's statement that he will keep Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of defense until he leaves office in 2009. Most voters say Kerry's statement is not a serious consideration in their vote, but 18% of independent voters say it did raise serious doubts about voting for a Democratic candidate.
GOP Voters More Engaged
For months, Democrats have expressed more interest in the election and enthusiasm about voting than have Republicans. The 'enthusiasm gap' was dramatic in Pew surveys in early October (18 points) and late October (17 points).
These differences have narrowed considerably. About half of Democratic voters (51%) say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, little change from Pew's two previous surveys. By contrast, 42% of Republicans say they are more enthusiastic about voting; that is fewer than the percentage of Democrats more enthused about going to vote, but 10 points higher than just a few weeks ago.
Moreover, Republicans have gained ground in recent weeks on measures aimed at assessing a voter's likelihood of voting. So while Pew polls in early October and mid-October showed virtually no change in the Democratic advantage between all voters and those most likely to turn out, the current survey shows the Democrats' eight-point lead among all registered voters narrowing considerably among likely voters. In this regard, the current campaign more closely resembles previous midterm elections since 1994, when Republicans also fared better among likely voters than among all registered voters...