Big Gains for Kaine in Latest Poll

By: Lowell
Published On: 8/10/2005 1:00:00 AM

The latest poll of the Virginia gubernatorial contest, this one by SurveyUSA, shows Tim Kaine gaining rapidly on Jerry Kilgore.  Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll six weeks ago, "Kilgore has lost 1 point, Kaine has gained 4 points. Kilgore's lead has shrunk from 10 points to 5 points."  Great stuff...wait 'til the debates, assuming Kilgore doesn't back out, that is!

Another interesting result, according to SurveyUSA, is this:

Interest in the Virginia contest has increased since SurveyUSA's previous poll. Six weeks ago, interviewing 1,200 Virginia adults produced 494 likely voters. Today, interviewing 1,200 Virginia adults produces 568 likely voters.

Other findings?  Kaine leads among liberals (85%-10%)  and moderates (54%-35%), while Kilgore leads only among conservatives (76%-16%).  Kaine leads in urban areas, while Kilgore's ahead in rural parts of the state.  In suburbia, Kilgore has a slight edge (49%-43%), but basically Kilgore's margin is coming from "central Virginia" and "rest of Virginia," with Kaine and Kilgore bascially tied in northeastern and southwestern Virginia. 

Finally, Russ Potts is at 3% in the poll, far below the 15% he needs to meet the Kilgore-imposed debate threshold. 

Overall, this poll is great news for Tim Kaine, as it shows him gaining rapidly.  Another month of this and the race will be a dead heat, just as people really start tuning in.  I'm optimistic; Go Kaine!


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