So, who's leading in New Hampshire among Republicans who have visited the state as possible Presidential candidates? Not surprisingly, it's John McCain in a landslide, with 39% of "Likely Republican Primary Voters," followed by "Undecided" at 32%, Newt Gingrich at 14%, Mitt Romney at 8%, and Bill Frist at 5%. Of course, there's no Jeb Bush in the poll...it would be interesting if ARG had added him, even though he's said he isn't running in 2008. Also, there's no Rudolph Giuilani, no George Pataki, and no John Sununu, all of whom are potentially strong candidates in New Hampshire.
The bottom line is that 2008 is likely to be a wild Republican nomination contest. As far as George Allen is concerned, however, right now he's nothing more than a blip.
I was working in Southwestern Virginia when Warner was running for governor, and got to watch him speak and work a crowd several times. I strongly disagree that he lacks charisma, especially during a campaign. The guy can light up a room.
And to suggest that his personality is somehow lacking or Kerry-like -- I think that's wrong too. Kerry couldn't speak plainly. Warner can, and he can do it with a vibrant smile.
I'm in NC now, but would vote for Warner for Democratic nominee and for President in a heartbeat. He's an impressive candidate on many fronts.
1. Mark Warner has shown little interest in running for the senate
2. Every president since Lyndon Johnson has been a governor of a southern state. Mark Warner is governor of a southern "red" state known as the "Best managed state in the nation."
3. George Allen is considering a White House run in 2008
4. Polls show Mark Warner would beat George Allen in a White House matchup
5. If Warner has ambitions to be president, the senate would (if history is any indication) likely be the kiss of death for that
6. In the history of presidential elections, only two senators have ever been elected president
7. Washington needs a reform-minded president and Mark Warner has the vision & capability to run and win the White House and truly change the tone in Washington
8. If Mark Warner ran for the senate and and lost for any reason, that would mean two senate
losses and likely be the end of his presidential hopes
9. He has momentum on his side towards a White House run and is quickly rising as the alternative to Hillary Clinton. He should go with this momentum if indeed the White House is his ultimate goal.
10. He could do much more as president than as one senator among 100
11. Party desperation to come up with a senatorial candidate is not a good enough reason to sit one's presidential ambitions aside.
12. A moderate will be needed on the ticket in
2008.
13. Mark Warner is the moderate with the most
impressive record.
14. The one-term governor, we believe, will work to his advantage, not against him.
Some have noted Mark Warner is a one-term governor and as such, lacks the experience and record needed to run for president.
I?ll leave you with this quote from another of Virginia?s eight U.S. Presidents, Woodrow Wilson, found in the biography of Dean Acheson which quotes Wilson:
?So, when the presidential candidate came to be chosen, it was recognized as imperatively necessary that he should have as short a political record as possible, and that he should wear a clean and irreproachable insignificance...A decisive career which gives a man a well understood place in public estimation constitutes a positive disability for the presidency ;because CANDIDACY must precede election, and the shoals of candidacy can be passed only by a light boat which carries little freight and can be turned readily about to suit the intricacies of the passage.?
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George Allen '08
Vote for me or the pupppy dies.
If he were so "boring" why did he attract so many "good ole boys" to his campaign? He even had a race car during that campaign.
Mark Warner has...and will have ...a clear message. He will stick to it and not be all over the map like Al Gore and John Kerry were. His campaign will not be based on just opposing things...he will actually be FOR something.
John Kerry"s fatal flaw was the lack of a clear message and the fact that John Kerry and his campaign (if that's what you want to call it)"did'nt have enough sense to get out of the rain" (a good ole Southern saying).
...greetings to you all from Southwestern Virginia...
While I'd love to get a great Roosevelt-like presence as our candidate, it could be dangerous to underestimate Mark Warner.
Or George W. Bush's in 1997.
One thing is certain -- the GOP candidate in '08 will NOT be John McCain. Democrats love him; Republicans do not. My money is on either Allen or Huckabee.
Walter, let's start with the basics.
FIRE, BAAAAAAAD.
Tomorrow's lesson: playing nice with others.
On the one hand, Virginia needs Mark Warner. His leadership has done so much for the Commonwealth. He could really make a difference. It would be great to see him oust Allen, and what a message that would send in terms of strong Democratic Leadership ousting Republican corruption. Yes, I absolutely would love to see Mark Warner take Allen in '06.
On the other hand, I think Mark Warner's message is one that America needs; one that could truly transform the Democratic party. At the beginning of the '04 campaign, John Kerry told an audience, "Everybody always makes the mistake of looking south."
Let's take a minute and let that sink in. By my count the South, from Virginia to Texas, accounts for 168 electoral votes. Democrats just want to write that off? How stupid can you be?
Mark Warner brings two issues to the national debate which Democrats absolutely must learn to represent: southern culture and fiscal responsibility.
So it's a tossup for me. It depends on who you think needs Mark Warner's great leadership most.
If you think Virginia and the Senate, well there you have it. If you think America and the Democratic party, there's your answer.
Once Kaine, Byrne, and Deeds win in November, I think Warner would do the most good for the nation in a Presidential bid. Under alternative (Please, God NOOOOO!!!) circumstances, I'd have to reconsider.
By the way, if Newt Gingrich wins the nomination, I'm throwing a party, and EVERYONE is invited.
I am hoping Warner runs in '06. That way we get Allen out of the Senate and assure that he will not run in '08 and he will have wasted all this time stumping instead of being here in Virginia.
On Allen, I would not dismiss him because of the ARG poll..like someone said no-one even knew of Bill Clinton the summer of 1991 (even though Bush 41 was trying hard to undermine him politically cos not surprisingly, he was afraid of him). I think if Frist gets in he will be stronger than we think in the GOP primary and I think he has more centrist appeal than Allen, who is nothing more than a lock step republican beholden to the extreme right wing elements of this country. However IMHO, Allen though politically experienced can be beaten by Warner because of his image as a right-winger which will be hard to shake off. I think even if both split VA, Warner will have better cross over appeal in PA, OH, WV and CO...Allen I think is too straight jacketed a Republican, I don't see him digressing from the rigth wing agenda and successfully appealing to the center.
Overall, barring any unfortunate event, Warner will skip '06 and run for President in 2008. He will have a clear shot if Hilary doesn't run, though I would still consider him the probable primary winner even if she does. I would strongly suggest that Warner and Bayh avoid splitting "electability voters" (the final arbiter of a mature Democratic party voters) and avoid confronting each other. Bayh is much smarter and effective a Red State democrat than most people think, but my fear is that his senate record would be an easy target which would hurt us south of the Mason Dixie line (senate records can be twisted anyhow one's opponents want it in this era of partisan polarization).
Finally, the GOP (though I think they are mostly nativists are none the less pretty smart politicians), will do themselves a great disservice nominating a congressional republican in 2008...I doubt if any can win. However, they also have a few governors that won't make it past SC..i.e. Pataki, Romney and Owens). Pawlenty might be strong but I beleive their strongest candidate will be Mark Sanford of SC..who I see holding the south and if properly managed is good looking enough to strongly compete for the center and win..But like I said..It's WAY TOO EARLY!!!
1. Your opening statistic may be sound, but your use of those statistics is inflammatory and unfactual. If I owned 1% of Microsoft, just 1% I'd be a gazillionaire. I've seen business plans based on that kind of stuff and none of those businesses exists today.
2. Are you saying the the US population grows by 3.2 M/year - half from illegal immigration, and half from internal population growth?
3. I see you casting around for who's to blame for the horrible working conditions in Mexico and Central America. Everybody gets it from you in there: conservatives, progressives, illegal immigrants themselves, not to mention all strains of "elitists".
I think that a well reasoned economic evaluation of the situation will yield a clearer picture than your social sketch.
The economic polices that we call "free" markets really provide massive protections and supports for multinational corporations, while failing on many counts. "free" markets fail to protect small businesses or family farms, fail to provide for worker's rights, benefits, or to protect wages, consumers or the environment. I think the issue you're looking to take up is the issue of Fair Markets, at home and abroad.
If I were actually interested in talking about this issue of immigration, I would have this position: It's no wonder people want to come to America, our trade policy is bankrupting the workers of the world. That includes the US, btw, but until recently we had at least some protections left over from the New Deal for workers here. Now alas nearly all of those are gone, so the American working class is going down too.
I'm not interested in talking about immigration, however. In no small part because there's not mcuh that State Governments can or should do about it and this is just a big sleezebomb lobbed by Jerry Kilgore into the midst of this campaign. We have important issues like education, transporation and effective government to talk about. Jerry Kilgore doesn't want to talk about those because everything he has to say about them make him unelectable.
As I'm sure you know, the term "elite" is a codeword that conservatives use to scapegoat liberals. I note you use the term in the context of progressives and conservatives.
I found that quite interesting, and implied to me that you might be open to a frank discussion, rather than a shrill combat of screams and spin. So let's talk real causes.
The priests of the religion of "free" trade need to scapegoat the "liberal elites" otherwise people would realize that it is precisely those priests who are perpetrating the crimes ascribed to liberals and "elites". For example, the so called "liberal media" supposedly strives to keep the working classes from being heard, whereas if there actually were a "liberal media", there would be many more voices in the public discourse and much less "traitor" branding.
In the "free" trade debate, conservatives need to blame the plight of the working class, and the death of middle american towns on scapegoats like illegal immigrants, otherwise people might realize that it's precisely the Corporate Socialists who have ravaged America and stolen the future of the middle class in exchange for the right to pay only $5 for T-shirts at WalMart.
So what do we want? Do we want to flail around looking for blame and attack the ones who have been kicked hardest by the whole sorry mess? Do we want to be divided and hate one another? I don't think so.
I think that by reducing our giveaways to large businesses, while protecting family farms and small businesses (as Mark Warner and Tim Kain did in their tax reform), we can begin to mitigate the overwhelming power of Monopolist interests in this nation.
There's a propaganda technique called "projection" it's where you accuse someone of what you yourself are guilty of. Jerry Kilgore has come out accusing the least among us of causing inestimable harm. Is this an instance of projection? Is this the pot calling the kettle black? You have to decide for yourself.
There was a poll which I found frightening. It said that six percent of Britons of Pakistani descent approved of the London bombings. Of course, that means that 94 percent do not approve.
But if you told me that there was a group of people seeking to immigrate to America, and five percent of them approved of terrorist acts against Americans, I would want to keep the entire group out. There would be no way to know which members of the immigrating group were terrorist sympathizers.
There is not currently a problem with Central American immigrants bringing terrorist organizations with them here. But there was a case in Detroit that bothered me. A Lebanese illegal immigrant was working as a carpenter, and he was sponsoring house parties to raise money for Hezbollah. And perhaps this illegal immigrant was using day laborer centers.
Today I heard the story on National Public Radio about the debate over building the day laborer center in Herndon.
Day-Labor Centers Spark Immigration Debate By Jennifer Luttun
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4806486
I am outraged by the vile comment heard over the airwaves by one of the residents of Herndon regarding the town's latino immigrants and the laborer center. At a town meeting, one resident, whose name I heard as Ms. Berger, said, "...it's time for all nationalities to learn to live like Americans, this means learn how to speak English, learn how to have good hygiene, learn how to use appliances in their homes correctly...". What do hygiene or appliances have to do with the question of building a day laborer center?
I echo the sentiments of another commentator, Ms. Washingtion, heard on the same radio broadcast, "...it sounds like I'm back in time in Virginia, and not too long ago- only the names and the race has changed."
I can only hope that the press given to the anti-immigration rhetoric by Jerry Kilgmore and his followers will bring much needed attention and action to the problem of racism and intolerance in our nation. It certainly got my attention.
Ariana
Chicago, IL
nikolapv@hotmail.com
Debunk those myths!
Where's Tim? Says:
August 12th, 2005 at 7:38 pm
Kaine Bloggers Suck Says:
August 12th, 2005 at 7:47 pm
Where's TIM ???? Says:
August 12th, 2005 at 7:55 pm
Seems strange that a bunch of one-time bloggers all of a sudden post here with variations of the same message. Is maybe one person trying to appear to represnt the voices of many?
As far as CAFTA goes, I'm completely incensed by Jim Moran; and utterly dismayed.
Here's a guy I agree with on so many things, 100% Naral voting record, 100% NEA, etc, and he not only votes for CAFTA but champions it!
In economic terms CAFTA was pretty minor, but as an opportunity to make a statement that the Democrats actually represent something, it was HUGE!
I was so outraged by Jim Moran pulling such an obviously vichy-dem maneauver that I'm looking for someone to against him the next time we nominate a Congressman up here in the 8th. If there are any progressive Virginians who, like me adore Jim Moran but find this particular position inexcuseable, I suggest you consider stepping up.
True progressives need to take this party back, but Moran's CAFAT position is national, and we're talking local politics.
Tim Kaine and Mark Warner have a great track record of supporting small businesses with loans, grants, by helping small businees incubators, and with incredibly successful job retraining programs.
They've also managed to bring thousands of jobs to the Old Dominion without completely giving away the farm by giving outrageous tax breaks or kickbacks.
While the feds do all they can to gut the lives of the working men and women of Virginia, Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have taken real steps to make their lives better.
Tim Kaine doesn't need to take a position on "Free Trade". Rather than posturing, he's taken action. He's created thousands of jobs for and helped re-train those whose lives "Free Trade" policies have ruined.
Party Line Politics: you seem threatened by my posts. Until you face it, the truth hurts. I'll use truth with everything I have to debunk radical lies and face down ignorance.
When you empower the victims, the victimizers hang themselves.
Then you get into what happens to citizens and legal immigrants whose jobs are reduced in compensation or outright replaced by the presence of illegals competing for jobs and those citizens and legals still have need for housing, health and education.
Any thing less is mean-spirited. I mean, they've got to eat & drink, too. Right, Lowell?
Bush was supposed to expand the Border patrol enough to secure our borders. He didn't.
There are as many legal, illegal, refugee, asylum seekers, temporary workers etc., who find their way to the USA every year as there is population growth from births minus deaths in the USA. That's 1.6 million per year.
Illegal immigration only keeps the miserable exploitative and corrupt society in most of Latin America thriving. Illegal immigration allows wealthy U.S. conservatives to profit obscenely from slave wage labor. Why so-called progressives allow conservative exploiters to thrive at the expense of the oppressed is beyond me.
Of course, many of today's so-called progressives are wealthy elitists who outwardly differ little in their lifestyle from Republicans and conservatives. Like the conservatives, these so-called progressives are only looking for a source of cheap labor for child care, house cleaning and lawn mowing.
What is worse, everyone but the U.S. elite pays dearly for illegal immigration. In ways ranging from overcrowded schools to health care costs for the uninsured.
It will be interesting to see what happens during the next serious U.S. economic recession. It's bad enough now when so many skilled jobs are being exported while so many poor unskilled people are allowed to immigrate here.
This is a childish attempt by Jerry Kilgore to rally support for his impotent candidacy.
When you can't carry the sword of truth, try to rally the forces of darkness.
Ignorance is not an American Value. Hate is not an American Value. Jerry Kilgore is now under Subpoena and his close family is under indictment. Watch for more desperate attempts to move the electorate in the months ahead.
In a better man, desperate days like these would bring out real metal, real conviction, real character. Kilgore will go on to prove himself a weak, bizarre divider.
As he sinks, let's all throw him the lead lifepreserver he deserves.
Virginia was founded on greater virtue.
The majority of illegal immigrants do pay taxes (most have false SS#s) the money they pay in taxes they do not see back in a tax return and they are not able to collect Social Secturity or Medicare. The most recent PEW report stated that a higher number of illegal men in the US are working compared with legal and citizens. And every one of those workers - even the ones without an SS# are paying sales tax every day as consumers. They are hard-working folks (for the most part) who are working to improve their lives and the lives of their families. You are quick to point out that they live in garages, or 10 to a room etc. but then say the taxpayer is subsidizing their housing...huh?
Illegal immigration is not "right" and the open borders have become an area of great concern in these uncertain times. But you average day laborer (the reason this conversation was started) are not terrorists or criminals, they are workers. The real criminals are the companies that hire illegal immigrants, the consumers who are consistently looking for the lowest priced goods and the federal government who has turned a blind eye to the practice. These should be called criminal long before a hard working man whose putting food on his family's table.
I am married to a man who is now considered illegal. He came to America on a legitimate work visa but while we tried to navigate the impossibly confusing immigration system he fell out of status. He has no SS# and has trouble finding work despite his skills and education and he spends his days looking for work as a carpenter. We never chose for him to be illegal and our life would be a LOT better if he wasn't.
You need to stop judging the workers. If they weren't working then wouldn't they really would be a tax burden on your average citizen? Please make up your minds and decide what you are really fighting against. The only judgement you should be passing is on the Federal Government which has consistently encouraged a broken system that does not help anyone.
As someone who's worked day labor, let me tell you right wing fearmongering leaches a thing or two.
After I filed bankrupcy, thanks to a series of company closures after my tech company died, I had no choice but to work for a construction company as a day laborer.
Every one of the day laborers I worked with were LEGAL IMMIGRANTS. Yes, some even had greencards. Some, like me were just citizens who were down on their luck. Every one I talked to was documented. We did backbreaking work for very little money.
What a sickening troll infestation this is. Pro-illegal is a nice frame, how about racist idiots. Nice enough frame for you.
This isn't about being legal or illegal, this is about y'all trying to slander Tim Kaine because Jerry Kilgore isn't half the man Tim Kaine is, or half the candidate.
Those of you who are fully employed by the Scott "Black Hands" Howell sleeze machine need to go and take your sleeze out of the Old Dominion. Those of you who are actually listening to these childish, fearmongering slanders should really check yourselves.
Do you want Jerry Kilgore to win this election and take the Commonwealth Backwards?
These people aren't here to take your jobs, or steal from you or hurt you, they're here because the backwards religion of so-called "free" markets is driving the middle class in America to extincition and the lower classes in Mexico into wage slavery.
Don't let this backwards anger be misdirected, immigrants are only looking for what America has offered all of mankind: a better future. That better future is being robbed from the world by the likes of Jerry Kilgore.
Don't let him make a tool and a fool of you. You're better than he is. Don't make Virginia suffer, because he's selling you fear-flavored snake oil.
I presume you crossed the border legally if you applied for work at Burger King. Your comment really does not apply. Legal Immigrants are welcome.