Mason-Dixon poll has Webb leading, 46%-45%; anti-equality amendment in doubt
By: Rob
Published On: 11/4/2006 9:42:27 PM
Mason-Dixon's latest poll, reported in the Richmond Times-Dispatch, has Webb with a slight lead:
In the newspaperGÇÖs final pre-election snapshot of voter preferences, Webb leads Allen by a statistically insignificant 1 percentage point, 46 percent to 45 percent. Two percent favor independent Glenda Gail Parker and 7 percent are undecided....
The previous Mason-Dixon poll, released on Oct. 23, showed that 47% supported Allen while 43% favored Webb. In other words, we've gone from a 4-point Allen lead on October 23 to a 1-point Webb lead on November 4. That's a 5-point swing in Webb's favor in the past 2 weeks!
Support is down to 49 percent from 52 percent last month. With 45 percent now opposed, up from 42 percent last month, the measure - already adopted by 20 states - could go either way because the voter split is within the pollGÇÖs variable for error. Six percent are undecided.
The bottom line on both the Webb-Allen race and the Marshall-Newman amendment is that it's close. GOTV ("get out the vote") is the key. So get to work!
Comments
46-45 (DanG - 11/4/2006 9:44:22 PM)
Can we change the title for the sake of accuracy? I know it's really no big difference, but let's just be accurate here.
Thanks Dan (Greg - 11/4/2006 10:19:20 PM)
I tweaked the title to make it 46-45.
No problem (DanG - 11/4/2006 10:44:16 PM)
This is a great place for a challenger to be with only two days of campaigning left!
Thanks Dan... (Rob - 11/4/2006 10:48:10 PM)
or whoever cleaned up my diary! I was recruiting Webb voters (gained 2 more tonight) while doing it - so half a mind.
BELIEVE! (Vivian J. Paige - 11/4/2006 11:44:00 PM)
We can defeat this amendment. We have to work hard and get everyone out to vote NO!
Call me crazy... (DanG - 11/5/2006 12:07:40 AM)
But if I have to choose between electing Webb and taking down this amendment, there is no question in my mind: Jim Webb in the United States Senate.
Why choose? (GinterParked - 11/5/2006 12:59:48 AM)
Jim Webb was an early and vocal opponent of the Marshall/Newman amendment. He's never hestitated to express his distaste for this poorly written, dangerous and mean-spritied piece of legislative tripe.
Jim Webb has no problem standing up and saying two things: Virginia values should include all Virginians, and this amendment is nothing more than a cynical political ploy to advance the right-wing agenda.
Jim Webb, Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, Doug Wilder and a majority of Virginians agree on two thing:
Vote Jim and Vote NO.
Last year (uva08 - 11/5/2006 12:49:52 AM)
Remember last year they only had Kaine winning by 1 point also. We all know how that came out.
Almost all the recent polls, (libra - 11/5/2006 12:58:30 AM)
with the exception of the Roanoke College one, have been showing Webb ahead, even if only by 1 percentage point. That's dead heat (statistically speaking) but enough if it holds through Tuesday. Still... It would be better if we had a bigger margin, so I thank all of you who have more guts than I do and knock on doors or make cold-call on the phone. And let's hope that NoVA is big enough to pull the rest of us through. Based on yard-sign count, I do not like the situation in Rockbridge County...
COMMENT HIDDEN (Ian g - 11/5/2006 1:29:41 AM)
Troll rating, I'm afraid (PM - 11/5/2006 9:14:03 AM)
From "Ian's" blog:
What the Republicans should have ran on
Why Republicans chose to run on national security as opposed to the economy and judges is beyond me. The Republicans could have ran a positive campaign instead of the one they ran and which will probably result in the loss of the House and 3-6 Senate Seats.
Get thee to a remedial English course.
As any english teacher will tell you... (Loudoun County Dem - 11/5/2006 9:38:18 AM)
...verbs has to agree with their subjects. ;-)
Click here for more on how to write good...
sleazy negative ads now on tv al allen (lgb30856 - 11/5/2006 9:16:23 AM)
allen is going negative. must be his internals. literally.
LOL! (PM - 11/5/2006 10:04:41 AM)
Rasmussen has it tied at 49% (PM - 11/5/2006 10:19:15 AM)
http://www.rasmussen...
November 5, 2006
The latest Rasmussen Reports poll of the bitterly fought U.S. Senate race in Virginia shows the contest too close to call, with both Republican Senator George Allen and Democratic challenger James Webb collecting 49% (see crosstabs).
That makes Virginia one of two remaining Toss-Ups in our Senate Balance of Power summary, which now shows 49 states Democrat or Leaning Democrat, 49 states Republican or Leaning Republican. The other Toss-Up, Missouri, was always expected to be close. For most of Election 2006, Virginia was thought to be safely in the GOP column.
The latest poll, conducted November 2, shows Allen drawing a few more Republicans (88%) than Webb draws Democrats (85%). Webb leads 53% to 40% among independents.
Senator Allen, once expected to win easily, is viewed "very unfavorably" by 29% now, Webb by 20%. Webb is viewed favorably by 55% overall, the incumbent by only 50%. ***
New Time Poll: GOP Base Not Enthused, Shrinking (PM - 11/5/2006 12:06:16 PM)
from Americablog, so I don't have a direct cite:
With just three days left until the midterm elections, a new poll commissioned by TIME shows that Republicans may be approaching voting day without one of the big advantages they enjoyed in November 2004 — their ability to motivate supporters to go out and vote. Among registered Democrats polled, 52% say they're more enthusiastic about voting than usual, compared with just 39% of Republicans. Thirty-seven percent of Republican respondents are less enthusiastic than usual, while only 29% of Democrats feel that way.
Another challenge facing the GOP is a stark dropoff in support among what is usually a core constituency: white evangelical Christians. According to TIME's poll, only 54% of people in this group favor Republican candidates, with 5% undecided. Thirty-eight percent of white evangelicals polled say they'll support Democrats. In 2004, exit polls indicated that 78% of this constituency voted for Bush.***
