In my last update on October 20th, I suggested that 61 seats were realistically in play where Democrats can take over Republican seats. Today, 4 days before the election, there are still 60 seats realistically in play. The Democrats are likely to win 14 of these races. That leaves one more race to take back the House. There are 16 toss ups, and another 30 seats where the Democrats have a realistic shot of pulling off a victory.
The full list is after the "flip."
VULNERABLE REPUBLICAN SEATS
"x" means "open seat", all others have the name of the Republican incumbent
Likely Democrat victory (14)
Chance of victory: >60%
Arizona 08x
Colorado 07x G혀 This race was getting closer, but the DCCC has come in to help in the final weeks and Perlmutter is pulling away.
Florida 16x G혀 The Republicans may not be able to save this seat in time. Foley remains on the ballot.
Indiana 02 (Chocola)
Indiana 08 (Hostettler)
Iowa 01x
New Mexico 01 (Wilson)
New York 24x G혀 Will voters really fall for the phone sex ad now that it has been completely debunked? Does that nullify all issues with Iraq and health care and incompetence in a swing district like this one?
North Carolina 11 (Taylor)
Ohio 18x G혀 The GOP cannot get the Bob Ney stain out of this race.
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach)
Pennsylvania 07 (Weldon) G혀 A scandal for Weldon makes this already close race that much more likely for Sestak.
Pennsylvania 10 (Sherwood) G혀 Sherwood is still dogged by two words: mistress and choking.
Texas 22x G혀 Republicans will likely go after Lampson in 2008.
Likely # of victories: 14
Toss Up (16)
Chance of victory: 40-60%
Arizona 05 (Hayworth) G혀 This is why summer polls do not matter. This race is leaning towards the Democrat at just the right time.
California 11 (Pombo)
Connecticut 02 (Simmons) G혀 Surprisingly, this will probably be the toughest race for the Democrats to unseat a Republican in Connecticut.
Connecticut 04 (Shays)
Connecticut 05 (N. Johnson)
Florida 13x G혀 Fake robo-calls imitating the Democratic candidate just before election day? The Republicans wouldnG핫t do that, would they?
Florida 22 (Shaw)
Idaho 01x G혀 This race will be a barnburner. Sali is perhaps the worst GOP candidate in the country. It will test just how Democrats are perceived in Idaho if they cannot pick up this open seat.
Illinois 06x
Indiana 09 (Sodrel)
Kentucky 03 (Northup)
Kentucky 04 (Davis)
Nebraska 03x
Ohio 15 (Pryce) G혀 It doesnG핫t matter where you are during the summer; only where you are by election dayG푸and Kilroy should be poised for the kill.
Washington 08 (Reichert)
Wisconsin 08x
Likely # of victories: 8
Democrat may be slightly behind, but still has a good shot (13)
Chance of victory: 25-40%
Colorado 04 (Musgrave)
Colorado 05x G혀 If Fawcett cannot win here, with all that has happened in this race, no Democrat can win here.
Minnesota 01 (Gutknecht) G혀 This has become quite an interesting race down the wire.
New Hampshire 02 (Bass)
New York 19 (Kelly)
New York 20 (Sweeney) G혀 The polls are all over the place, but Sweeney has a lot of dirt.
New York 25 (Walsh)
New York 26 (Reynolds) G혀 This race is one of the few where the Republican has come back from being way down. Will the Foley-effect still be strong enough for Davis to win?
New York 29 (Kuhl) G혀 Massa is surging at the right time
North Carolina 08 (Hayes)
Ohio 01 (Chabot)
Pennsylvania 08 (Fitzpatrick)
Virginia 02 (Drake)
Likely # of victories: 4
Democrat behind, but could sweep in with a wave (17)
Chance of victory: 10-25%
Arizona 01 (Renzi)
California 04 (Doolittle)
California 50 (Bilbray)
Illinois 10 (Kirk) G혀 Kirk is very moderate, and has traditionally gotten a lot of cross-over voters. This is still a tight race, regardless.
Iowa 02 (Leach) G혀 This race may be one of those that has been off the radar and catches everyone by surprise.
Minnesota 06x
Nevada 02x
Nevada 03 (Porter)
New Jersey 07 (Ferguson)
New York 03 (King)
Ohio 02 (Schmidt)
Ohio 12 (Tiberi)
Pennsylvania 04 (Hart) G혀 This race has risen from nowhere to competitive, but it is uncertain whether enough has been done to sink the incumbent.
Texas 23 (Bonilla)
Virginia 10 (Wolf)
Washington 05 (McMorris) G혀 This race continues to be an intriguing upset possibility.
Wyoming at-large (Cubin) G혀 Lesson for Cubin: Do not threaten a handicapped person during a debate.
Likely # of victories: 2
Still on the fringe G혀 Victory still possible, but unlikely (10)
Chance of victory: < 10%
Colorado 06 (Tancredo)
Florida 08 (Keller)
Illinois 14 (Hastert)
Kansas 02 (Ryun)
Kentucky 02 (Lewis)
Michigan 07x
Michigan 08 (Rogers)
Minnesota 02 (Kline)
Nebraska 01 (Fortenberry)
New Hampshire 01 (Bradley)
Vulnerable Democrats
Georgia 08 (Marshall), Georgia 12 (Barrow), Illinois 08 (Bean), Indiana 07 (Carson), Iowa 03 (Boswell)
**None of these five races are considered likely to result in Republican victory, and Republicans need to avoid any kind of wave to win any of these seats.
***This list does not count VermontG핫s open seat, where a victory for Democrat Peter Welch would take the seat from Independent to Democrat. However, this race is almost like a Democratic seat since Sanders caucused with the Democrats.
Key campaign resources
National Journal Race Rankings: House
Democratic Candidates for House of Representatives
2004 results analysis
Candidates with ethics issues
Fighting Dems
Politics1
CQ Politics
Election Projection.com