I'm guessing that to most readers Ted Haggard is barely known. But this is the conservative equivalent of Jesse Jackson getting caught wearing a hood at a Klan cross burning. The political implications are enormous.
Some analysis by me below
There is one seat in CO that dems will win. The Denver Post bashed james Dobson for a nasty piece of mail on that race. Add to that the Haggard story, which first broke on a Denver TV station, and that could put one to three more seats in the blue column.
Also, one really has to wonder at the impact of this nationally on the evangelical vote - if they are feeling betrayed by one of their most important church leaders, one has to wonder if it might depress some enthusiasm for taking guidance on political things. Remember, this is on top of Foley, and on top of lots of corruption.
I am not a great expert on this, but I would not be surprised if this leads to a depression of possible Republican vote nationally of 1-2%, although that would not be spread uniformly. What is interesting is that if that is the national effect, it is likely to be quite concentrated in a few places where it might normally be more difficult for Dems, including a couple of districts in mountain West, such as WY-AL.
Just some speculation on my part. What do readers here think?
The strain on the relationship between religious right leaders like James Dobson and mainstream Republican leaders like Dick Army is bound to continue; their coalition is now mainly a lose-lose proposition. If the Religious Right succeeds in passing legislation to impose their social morals (banning abortion, gay rights, and the separation of church and state), then the Republicans will be voted out, and if the Republicans don't succeed in legislating the social agenda, they face condemnation by the Religious Right. This has already begun.
Fundamentalists always hew toward the extreme in the effort to reach a level of purity. When faced with challenges, they respond by "getting back to basics." In my opinion, the inflexible nature of Fundamentalism is not tenable in the give and take of a highly diverse population with a representative democracy. By embracing the fundamentalist evangelicals, Republicans gained a slight edge in the electorate that has helped them in the last 20 years, but it has also moved their party to the right of the mainstream in America.